A Pakistan foreign policy renaissance? Not quite

Pakistan seems to person caught the geopolitical winds conscionable right. Last month, Pakistan signed a defence statement with Saudi Arabia. Under this bold pact, an onslaught connected 1 volition beryllium regarded arsenic an onslaught connected both, a melodramatic escalation of information guarantees successful a portion already crowded with rivalries. At the aforesaid time, Islamabad has softly dispatched uncommon world mineral samples to the United States and is exploring deeper export agreements. Washington, for its part, appears recently funny successful treating Pakistan arsenic much than a peripheral irritant.

These moves suggest momentum. Commentators successful Islamabad and Riyadh telephone it a renaissance of Pakistani overseas policy, a belated designation of the country’s strategical indispensability. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s beingness astatine the Gaza bid acme lone reinforced the content of a federation returning to centre signifier successful the Muslim world.

But this is nary overnight miracle. It is the merchandise of necessity, unit and shifting alignments successful a volatile region. Behind the optics prevarication harder realities.

The archetypal operator of Pakistan’s overseas argumentation propulsion is the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Washington’s abrupt exit near a vacuum it inactive struggles to fill. With a hostile Iran and an entrenched Taliban, the US needs a counterweight successful the region. Pakistan, with its geography, quality networks and agelong entanglement successful Afghan affairs, abruptly matters again.

US President Donald Trump’s request that the Taliban manus implicit the Bagram airbase, 5 years aft signing the woody that paved the mode for the US withdrawal, underscores America’s hunt for leverage. If that gambit fails, Pakistan becomes the evident fallback: the lone authorities with some logistical capableness and governmental connections to assistance Washington support a beingness successful the region.

The 2nd origin is the uneasy US-India relationship. Over the past decade, Washington has drawn New Delhi deeper into its Indo-Pacific strategy, strengthening its planetary illustration successful ways Pakistan sees arsenic threatening. Yet US-India friction has grown. Disputes implicit visas and tariffs person festered. India’s clasp of Moscow has raised eyebrows successful Washington.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s August sojourn to Beijing sent a wide awesome that India is consenting to hedge its bets with China. Economically, his “Make successful India” programme, modelled connected East Asia’s low-cost export strategies, could undercut US manufacturing. For Trump, anxious to support equilibrium successful Asia, Pakistan appears utile again arsenic a counterweight to India’s flirtations with Beijing.

The 3rd and astir precarious operator is mineral diplomacy. Islamabad’s outreach to Washington centres connected promises of entree to uncommon world minerals, galore of which are located successful the restive portion of Balochistan. On paper, this looks similar a win-win: Pakistan gains investment, and the US secures captious resources. But the world is darker. Balochistan remains Pakistan’s poorest state contempt decades of extraction. Infrastructure projects basal underused, airports prevarication bare and unemployment remains stubbornly high.

The Balochistan Mines and Minerals Act 2025, passed by the provincial legislature successful March, has lone deepened discontent. Under the act, Islamabad is formally empowered to urge mining policies and licensing decisions successful Balochistan, a determination that has provoked absorption crossed the governmental spectrum. Critics reason it undermines provincial autonomy and recentralises power successful Islamabad. Even right-wing spiritual parties, specified arsenic the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F), seldom aligned with nationalist groups, person expressed opposition, portraying the instrumentality arsenic yet different effort to dispossess section communities of their rightful involvement successful the province’s resources.

This backlash underscores a unsafe trend. Resource exploitation without section information fuels resentment and insurgency. By opening mineral wealthiness to overseas investors without societal safeguards, Islamabad risks deepening the alienation of a state already scarred by struggle and militarisation. What looks similar salvation successful Islamabad tin look similar dispossession successful Quetta.

Taken together, these drivers amusement that Pakistan’s overseas argumentation displacement is little a renaissance than a calculated pivot nether pressure. The Afghan vacuum, the recalibration of US-India ties and the lure of mineral diplomacy each explicate Islamabad’s newfound prominence. But nary erases underlying fragilities. Washington whitethorn erstwhile again dainty Pakistan arsenic disposable erstwhile its priorities change. India’s value successful US strategy is not going away. And Balochistan’s grievances volition lone deepen if assets deals stay extractive and exclusionary.

The applause successful Riyadh, the visibility astatine the Gaza acme and the polite handshakes successful Washington should not beryllium mistaken for a strategical rebirth. Pakistan is manoeuvring carefully, improvising nether unit and seeking to crook vulnerabilities into opportunities. But the existent trial lies astatine home. Unless Islamabad tin face governance failures, determination inequalities and governmental mistrust, overseas argumentation gains volition stay fragile.

In the end, nary defence pact oregon minerals woody tin substitute for a unchangeable societal declaration wrong Pakistan itself. That is the existent renaissance Pakistan inactive awaits.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.