A political shift ahead? What to know about Bolivia’s presidential election

For the archetypal clip successful astir 2 decades, Bolivia is connected the precipice of a rightward shift.

Voters successful the South American federation volition spell to the polls connected August 17 to take the adjacent president, arsenic good arsenic members of Congress.

But schisms wrong Bolivia’s long-dominant near person opened the doorway to a imaginable right-wing victory, with candidates similar businessman Samuel Doria Medina and erstwhile President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga starring the race.

Bolivia has been unsettled by governmental and economical turmoil successful caller years, including precocious ostentation and dwindling currency reserves.

That, successful turn, has fuelled nationalist dissatisfaction with the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, which has been successful powerfulness astir continuously since 2006. Candidates like Medina and Quiroga are hoping to capitalise connected that disillusionment to oust MAS from the presidency.

But tensions successful the state stay high, and polls amusement a adjacent contention that whitethorn not nutrient a wide victor successful the archetypal circular of voting.

Who are the figures shaping the race, what issues are apical of caput for voters, and however could this predetermination signifier Bolivia? We reply those questions and much successful this explainer.

When is the election?

The archetypal circular of voting volition instrumentality spot connected Sunday, August 17.

Will determination beryllium a 2nd circular of voting?

Possibly. To debar a run-off, the apical statesmanlike campaigner indispensable either gain much than 50 percent of the ballot oregon garner 40 percent of the ballot and person a 10-point pb implicit the second-place contender.

But that script is unlikely, fixed the choky contention betwixt candidates similar Medina and Quiroga.

The statesmanlike contention is expected to proceed to a 2nd circular of voting connected October 19.

Are determination different races connected the ballot?

Yes. In summation to voting for a president and vice president, Bolivians volition formed ballots for 36 Senate seats and 130 positions successful the Chamber of Deputies.

Bolivia has a colonisation of astir 12 million, of which much than 7 cardinal are eligible voters.

Bolivian statesmanlike campaigner Jorge ‘Tuto’ Quiroga campaigns successful La Paz, Bolivia, connected August 7 [Juan Karita/AP Photo]

Who are the main statesmanlike candidates?

A full of 10 statesmanlike candidates registered to contention successful Sunday’s election, but truthful far, nary azygous contender has decisively breached into the lead.

“This is the archetypal nationalist predetermination successful 2 decades without a ascendant enactment oregon a wide frontrunner,” said Glaeldys Gonzalez Calanche, an expert with the International Crisis Group, a probe nonprofit.

Two intimately watched candidates, however, are some conservatives who struggled to marque an content successful past elections.

They present look to person a changeable astatine success, a improvement that underscores the implosion of the once-formidable Bolivian left.

One of the candidates is simply a person and businessman named Samuel Doria Medina. An entrepreneur who made his luck successful cement, Medina present owns hotels and Burger King edifice franchises successful Bolivia.

In the 1990s, helium besides served arsenic a curate of readying nether President Jaime Paz Zamora.

The laminitis of the right-of-centre National Unity Front, Medina antecedently made 3 failed attempts to tally for president: successful 2005, 2009 and 2014.

He apt faces his stiffest contention from chap also-ran, the right-wing Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga.

Like Medina, Quiroga has been a statesmanlike campaigner 3 times before: successful 2005, 2014 and 2020. But helium concisely ascended to the presidency himself aft being elected arsenic the country’s youngest vice president successful 1997.

He shared a summons astatine the clip with the country’s erstwhile subject dictator Hugo Banzer, whose authorities successful the 1970s was associated with abuses specified arsenic torture and enforced disappearances.

As president, Banzer decided to permission bureau successful 2001 aft helium was diagnosed with lung cancer, and Quiroga served the last twelvemonth of Banzer’s term.

Bolivian Senate President Andronico Rodriguez waves to supporters astatine a rally successful La Paz, Bolivia, connected May 10 [Juan Karita/AP Photo]

Are determination immoderate contenders connected the left?

Yes, but they person not been polling arsenic powerfully arsenic their blimpish counterparts.

Andronico Rodriguez is the starring left-wing candidate, moving arsenic an independent. The president of the Senate, Rodriguez boasts roots successful Bolivia’s agrarian coca-growing regions, which thin to beryllium strongholds for the governing MAS party.

Rodriguez, however, divided from the MAS enactment this twelvemonth arsenic Bolivia’s leftist conjugation fractured.

Outgoing president and MAS subordinate Luis Arce has been blamed for Bolivia’s slumping economy, and MAS laminitis Evo Morales has been locked successful a feud with some Arce and Rodriguez arsenic helium seeks to regain the presidency himself.

The authoritative MAS campaigner successful the 2025 election, erstwhile curate Eduardo del Castillo, has hardly made a ripple successful the polls.

What bash the polls say?

A canvass aggregator compiled by the Americas Society/Council of the Americas shows conservatives Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga vying for the lead.

But the polls enactment that a important fig of voters are either undecided oregon intent upon casting null votes, adding a wild-card constituent to Sunday’s race.

Three polls taken betwixt aboriginal June and precocious July amusement Medina successful the lead, with betwixt 19.6 and 24.5 percent support.

Quiroga, meanwhile, garnered betwixt 16.6 percent and 22.9 percent successful the polls.

And Andronico Rodriguez, the left-wing candidate, earned betwixt 6 percent and 13.7 percent enactment among the survey respondents.

What issues are apical of caput for voters?

The country’s economical turbulence and outgo of surviving situation are among the highest-profile issues for voters this predetermination cycle.

“Bolivia is experiencing its worst economical situation successful a generation,” said Gonzalez Calanche, the expert with the International Crisis Group.

She pointed retired that the nationalist currency has mislaid much than fractional of its value. While Bolivia has immense stores of earthy state and oil, its accumulation has tumbled, starring to an economical shortfall.

The state has been forced to import substance alternatively than exporting it amid shortages.

A survey successful May recovered that voters identified rising prices arsenic their apical concern, followed by different economical issues specified arsenic substance shortages, shrinking dollar reserves and unemployment.

Bolivian President Luis Arce gives a quality league alongside his Minister of Government Roberto Rios connected June 11 [Juan Karita/AP Photo]

Why isn’t the existent president running?

President Luis Arce announced successful May that helium would not question re-election, arsenic the country’s economical situation and a feud with erstwhile mentor Evo Morales sent his popularity plummeting.

The last months of Arce’s five-year word person been defined mostly by tumult. In 2023 and 2024, the state saw its currency reserves shrink, and its earthy state manufacture suffered.

Morales, meanwhile, began to presumption himself arsenic a professional of Arce’s government. Under Arce’s leadership, Bolivia’s judicial strategy barred Morales from seeking a 4th word arsenic president, and an apprehension warrant was issued against Morales for statutory rape.

Tensions roseate successful June 2024, erstwhile a wide stormed the statesmanlike palace and appeared to effort a coup d’etat. Arce blamed Morales’s supporters, and Morales claimed Arce had staged the coup to rescue his popularity.

What relation is Evo Morales playing?

Bolivia’s predetermination is notable for the lack of 1 of the country’s astir influential figures: MAS laminitis Evo Morales.

As a three-term president from 2006 until 2019, Morales oversaw a play of important economical maturation that made him fashionable successful Bolivia and crossed the Latin American left.

But successful 2019, Morales sought a arguable 4th word successful office. Though authoritative results showed helium won, protests, threats and claims of ballot tampering forced Morales to permission the country.

Some person described his exile arsenic a coup, driven by the subject and the governmental right.

When Arce, his erstwhile concern minister, was elected president successful 2020, Morales was capable to instrumentality to Bolivia.

But the 2 leaders person fallen out, successful portion arsenic a effect of their rivalry for the presidency, and Morales has rallied his supporters to his broadside successful a divided that has fractured the Bolivian left.

In May, a law tribunal upheld a ruling that Morales could not tally again, owed to word limits imposed since helium near office.

But Morales has continued to property for a 4th word successful office, and helium has urged his supporters to formed null ballots to protestation Sunday’s election.

Polls estimation the combined fig of undecided voters and protestation votes could magnitude to betwixt 25 and 34 percent of voters.

Morales’s supporters person besides led demonstrations successful protestation of the erstwhile president’s exclusion from the election. Some person blocked roads. Others person erupted into clashes that near constabulary and protesters dead.

How agelong is simply a statesmanlike term?

Presidents are elected successful Bolivia for a word of 5 years. In caller years, the country’s courts person constricted presidents to 2 consecutive presumption successful office.

This has been a root of consternation for Morales, who served 3 consecutive presumption and hopes to summation a fourth.

Why is this predetermination important?

Bolivia’s near is apt connected way for its archetypal decision successful a statesmanlike contention successful astir 2 decades. That would nonstop shockwaves passim Latin America, wherever Bolivia has been a left-wing stronghold for overmuch of the 21st century.

“The near has been weakened by schisms and idiosyncratic disputes betwixt Morales and Arce,” expert Gonzalez Calanche said.

She explained that those schisms volition beryllium reflected successful the ballot box, arsenic commercialized unions and different left-leaning organisations conflict to unite down a candidate.

With tensions high, economical conditions deteriorating, and nary statement campaigner to pb the country, Gonzalez Calanche fears Bolivia could beryllium heading into a play of uncertainty arsenic it approaches a imaginable 2nd circular of voting.

“There’s a precise dire economical situation, made worse by societal and governmental unrest,” she said. “It’s a rhythm that continues to provender itself.”