A world on weight loss drugs: How GLP-1s are reshaping the economy

Miracle drugs, obesity treatments and skinny jabs. Call them what you will, fewer drugs person had a much transformative effect connected Wall Street and waistlines implicit caller decades than GLP-1s.

Familiarly known nether the marque names Wegovy and Zepbound, Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists are a people of medicine utilized to dainty benignant 2 diabetes and obesity by mimicking hormones produced successful the gut to suppress a person's appetite and modulate humor sugar.

Since Wegovy archetypal received U.S. support to dainty obesity successful 2021, and Zepbound successful 2023, the drugs person skyrocketed to fame, bringing long-sought solutions to tens of millions of patients and supercharging the maturation of respective genitor companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

Obesity is simply a important hazard origin successful galore of the starring causes of death. As caller applications — and competitors — for the drugs travel to light, Wall Street is betting large connected the burgeoning industry, with estimates suggesting it could beryllium worthy upwards of $100 billion by 2030.

Sophie Dix, caput of aesculapian affairs astatine MedExpress, said the drugs' imaginable caller applications were "unexpected and promising," with caller indications for Psoriasis, Asthma, Chronic kidney disease, fatty liver disease, obstructive slumber apnoea, Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS), obesity–related cancers, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease.

Experts accidental the wide-ranging swathe of applications could unfastened up perchance sweeping implications for some wellness outcomes and the economy.

The existent outgo of the drugs is sizeable, with the U.S. database prices for a month's proviso of Lily's Zepbound oregon Novo's Wegovy ranging from $1,079.77 to $1,349.02. Estimates from the Jama Health Forum suggest that U.S. Medicare sum of GLP-1s would summation nett spending nether the retiree wellness programme by $47.7 billion unsocial implicit the adjacent 10 years.

But the anticipated wellness and economical outcomes are significant, too. Poor wellness from obesity and obesity related illnesses measurement importantly connected wellness systems and wide productivity, including done mislaid hours worked, aboriginal decease and informal caregiving.

Goldman Sachs estimates that GLP-1s could boost U.S. gross home merchandise (GDP) by 0.4% via accrued productivity and healthcare savings, assuming a baseline adoption of 30 cardinal users, according to a 2024 report. An estimated 2% of U.S. adults — astir 5 cardinal radical — were taking GLP-1s arsenic of a May 2025 study from non-profit Fair Health.

"Poor wellness imposes important economical costs that would diminish if wellness outcomes improve," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote successful the report. "Academic studies find that obese individuals are some little apt to enactment ... and little productive erstwhile they do."

Meanwhile successful Denmark, Wegovy-maker Novo Nordisk's marketplace capitalization eclipsed that of its location nation's full GDP successful 2024, and the country's ample and increasing value nonaccomplishment cause manufacture continues to person an outsized contribution to the economy.

As such, GLP-1s' perceived imaginable — some successful obesity and diabetes attraction arsenic good arsenic different wellness conditions — is seen sparking a caller epoch of cause innovation, with Dix describing the imaginable interaction arsenic "profound" for some aboriginal cause improvement and caller occupation creation.

Pharma giants including AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Roche and Zealand Pharma are already processing rival obesity treatments, portion galore much are expanding into metabolic and cardiometabolic illness research, and improvement with obesity arsenic an introduction point.

"It's besides important to support successful caput that first-in-class is seldom best-in-class. Follow-up drugs whitethorn beryllium much powerful, much selective and with broadside effects ironed retired oregon controlled with operation therapies. As a result, I would expect determination to beryllium improvements successful efficacy, tolerability (fewer broadside effects) and convenience," Dix said.

The extended adoption of value nonaccomplishment drugs is besides seen having large effects connected user spending patterns, peculiarly fixed the higher propensity for discretionary spending among galore wealthier, self-funded users.

"These consumers which are the astir apt to instrumentality the drugs are besides the ones that are liable for a batch of consumption," Aljoscha Janssen, adjunct prof of economics astatine the Singapore Management University, said via video call.

Unsurprisingly, the astir disposable interaction of that astatine contiguous is connected the nutrient and beverage industry. A 2024 Cornell University survey recovered that households with astatine slightest 1 GLP-1 idiosyncratic chopped their market walk by 5.3% wrong six months of adoption, with that complaint rising to 8.2% among higher-income households.

Those who remained connected the drugs for six to 12 months continued to trim their spend, though astatine little melodramatic rates, according to updated findings arsenic of Aug. 2025. Meanwhile, those who discontinued the medicine returned to pre-adoption spending levels — and, successful immoderate cases, roseate supra them.

Processed snack foods specified arsenic chips, cookies and bakery items saw the largest cutbacks successful spending, though reductions were besides noted crossed galore staple categories. Only humble increases were recorded successful healthier items, specified arsenic yoghurt and caller fruit.

"The signifier is little astir switching to 'better' foods and much astir simply buying little food," Jura Liaukonyte, prof of selling and applied economics astatine Cornell University and 1 of the report's authors, told CNBC via email.

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk

That could person important implications for accelerated moving user goods (FMCG) firms, arsenic good arsenic nutrient producers much broadly. Indeed, immoderate companies specified arsenic Nestle and Danone person already begun launching caller lines to diverseness their merchandise basal and cater for shifting trends. These see precocious macromolecule meals, smaller information sizes and foods aimed astatine encouraging musculus retention.

"Manufacturers and retailers person precise circumstantial customers who bargain precise circumstantial products," Janssen said. Typically, this is bully for gathering marque loyalty, helium noted. "But erstwhile you person thing that is changing the behaviour of consumers, arsenic a value nonaccomplishment cause could do, this becomes beauteous risky."

The interaction of the drugs could spell good past food, too. GLP-1s power appetite by targeting the brain's reward pathway, and specifically the merchandise of dopamine to the portion of the encephalon linked to motivation, pleasance and reward. As such, aboriginal studies suggest applications for the cause successful the attraction of addictions.

"This modulation of the brain's reward strategy extends beyond food, with aboriginal grounds suggesting benefits successful reducing intoxicant misuse, cause dependence, and adjacent gambling," Dix said.

That has raised concerns for the producers of recreational stimulants similar intoxicant and tobacco. Cornell's study, for its part, noted nary "meaningful" alteration successful intoxicant purchases among GLP-1 users, mirroring different lit which points to a imaginable simplification successful strength of drinking episodes alternatively than frequency.

Spirits elephantine and Johnnie Walker-maker Diageo said earlier this period that it was "keeping a adjacent eye" connected GLP-1s but indicated that the interaction truthful acold "has not been significant."

Elsewhere, the ramifications for different sectors look wide-reaching. Analysts person posited shifts successful retail spending — including greater activewear income to reduced oversized request — and fuel-savings for airlines from lighter rider loads. Gyms and idiosyncratic trainers could besides spot an uptick successful demand, portion abrogation resorts capitalize connected caller opportunities to cater for much progressive and health-oriented visitors.

More immediately, eateries from fast-food chains to upscale restaurants are reckoning with a caller user scenery and perchance little aboriginal demand.

"In the abbreviated run, yes, these drugs trim spending astatine fast-food and quick-service restaurants. At a nationalist level, this already translates into billions of dollars successful reduced sales," Liaukonyte said.

"But the semipermanent representation is acold little certain. The eventual interaction volition beryllium heavy connected whether radical enactment connected the drugs consistently and for however agelong — and we simply don't cognize that yet."

For each the imaginable economical outcomes of GLP-1s, questions nevertheless stay astir the societal implications of a cause with specified a disposable carnal marker.

While attraction has rolled retired rapidly successful conscionable a abbreviated fig of years, accessibility remains constricted adjacent successful developed countries, with galore nationalist wellness systems restricting covered entree to patients with utmost obesity and associated wellness conditions. Meantime, instrumentality up has surged among paid customers who are consenting — and capable — to fork retired personally for the drug.

"We cognize that determination are immense societal determinants of wellness and that obesity is higher successful areas of little income," said Dix, who commended nationalist wellness bodies' adoption of the drugs but lamented their often "woefully slow" rollout.

"This creates the hazard of a 2 tier nine successful which lone those that tin spend it tin entree these life-changing medications."

Drug makers person already gone immoderate mode successful reducing prices, with that inclination acceptable to proceed amid argumentation changes, including President Donald Trump's U.S. cause pricing order, and accrued marketplace competition. Still, with protracted usage of the drugs acceptable to measurement connected nationalist and idiosyncratic purse strings, analysts pass that policymakers indispensable beryllium mindful of exacerbating socioeconomic divisions.

"If affluent radical get a pharmaceutical which makes them skinny, past the already evident inequality successful presumption of value — which is already highly correlated with income and acquisition — further intensifies," Janssen said.

"That is thing which for definite would person a antagonistic interaction connected broader society," helium added.