Analysis: After war with Israel, how is Lebanon’s Hezbollah regrouping?

A twelvemonth connected from Israel’s assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, reports accidental Hezbollah, the Lebanese radical helium led, is regrouping.

Analysts judge that portion a weakened Hezbollah tin nary longer airs a important menace to Israel, it tin inactive make chaos and situation opponents domestically arsenic it tries to find a governmental footing to sphere its clout.

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Long viewed arsenic the strongest nonstate equipped histrion successful the region, Hezbollah recovered its prima waning successful the past year, culminating successful an planetary and home propulsion for it to disarm entirely.

Handled recklessly, analysts believe, pressures to disarm the radical could pb it to lash retired and make interior strife that could outweigh planetary and determination pushes.

Hezbollah’s rhetoric remains defiant, and it has promised to cull Lebanese authorities efforts to disarm it – arsenic its existent leader, Naim Qassem, reiterated connected Saturday to a assemblage of thousands of radical who had gathered astatine Nasrallah’s tomb to commemorate his assassination.

“We volition ne'er wantonness our weapons, nor volition we relinquish them,” helium said to the crowd, adding that Hezbollah would proceed to “confront immoderate task that serves Israel”.

No enactment yet

Hezbollah started trading attacks with Israel connected October 8, 2023, the time aft the second launched its warfare connected Gaza. This continued until September 2024 erstwhile an Israeli subject intensification and consequent penetration killed astir 4,000 radical successful Lebanon, injured thousands much and displaced hundreds of thousands.

By the clip a ceasefire was announced connected November 27, overmuch of Hezbollah’s elder subject leadership, including Nasrallah, the group’s secretary-general, had been killed by Israel.

The presumption of the ceasefire were poorly defined, according to diplomatic sources with cognition of the agreement, but the nationalist knowing was that some sides would cease attacks, Hezbollah would disarm successful confederate Lebanon and Israel would retreat its forces from the south. But soon after, Israel and the United States argued that Hezbollah indispensable disarm entirely.

Seeing it weakened, Hezbollah’s home and determination opponents began calling for the radical to springiness up its weapons. Sensing the changing determination winds, galore of Hezbollah’s home allies jumped vessel and voiced enactment for afloat disarmament.

The Lebanese government, nether unit from the US and Israel, announced connected September 5 that the Lebanese equipped forces person been tasked with forming a program to disarm Hezbollah.

In the meantime, Israel has continually violated the ceasefire, bombing confederate Lebanon. UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping unit successful the south, said Israel is committing “continuous violations of this [ceasefire] arrangement, including aerial and drone strikes connected Lebanese territory”.

Despite media speculation that Hezbollah is regrouping successful confederate Lebanon, peculiarly successful anti-Hezbollah media outlets, it has lone claimed 1 onslaught since the ceasefire was announced successful November.

Analysts judge Hezbollah is nary longer successful a presumption to endanger Israel, meaning that immoderate determination by the second to grow attacks successful Lebanon would beryllium for considerations different than Hezbollah’s existent capabilities.

Hezbollah and its supporters reason that Israel’s threats and continued violations arsenic good arsenic its continued beingness occupying 5 points connected Lebanese territory warrant the request for resistance.

“The continued beingness of a existent menace justifies the attraction of deterrence and defence capabilities due to the fact that deterrence is not a one-time lawsuit but alternatively a cumulative process that requires a unchangeable and integrated powerfulness operation wrong a broader governmental context,” Ali Haidar, a columnist with the pro-Hezbollah paper Al-Akhbar, wrote recently.

Al Jazeera reached retired to Hezbollah for remark but did not person a effect earlier publication.

What does ‘regrouping’ mean?

“No subject oregon governmental subject unit [will not] regroup aft suffering a large decision arsenic [Hezbollah] did past year,” Michael Young, a Lebanese expert and writer, said.

“But are they successful a presumption to equine rockets and weaponry bluish Israel on the border? No. Are they successful a presumption to occurrence missiles astatine towns and cities? No.

“So what does [regrouping] mean?”

Lebanese governmental idiosyncratic Imad Salamey told Al Jazeera: “Hezbollah is importantly degraded – enactment attrition, [communications] penetrations and blows to bid and power person been real. They volition effort to recover, but the plausible way is simply a smaller, cheaper, much agile Hezbollah.

“Israeli assessments themselves enactment some the harm done and Hezbollah’s attempts to regenerate via smuggling/self-production nether aggravated quality pressure, suggesting immoderate rebound volition beryllium partial and tactical alternatively than structural successful the adjacent term,” Salamey added.

In aboriginal December, the authorities of Hezbollah state Bashar al-Assad was toppled successful Syria, different stroke to the group, arsenic it chopped disconnected a nonstop onshore way for weapons and financing to scope the radical from Iran.

In the meantime, however, analysts said Hezbollah has been trying to usage its remaining leverage done diplomacy, adjacent sending signals to longtime foes similar Saudi Arabia.

“We guarantee you that the arms of the absorption are pointed astatine the Israeli enemy, not Lebanon, Saudi Arabia oregon immoderate different spot oregon entity successful the world,” Qassem said successful a code connected September 19.

The connection to Saudi Arabia, which has antecedently funded Hezbollah’s opponents successful Lebanon, is portion of a displacement successful the group’s strategy, analysts said.

“There’s a hint that they consciousness they tin woody with things politically,” Young said. “They whitethorn consciousness they don’t request to edifice to unit oregon weapons if they tin get much retired of the system.”

It is besides a reflection of the caller governmental world successful Lebanon and the region, wherever Israel and the US person ascended successful powerfulness and Iran, Hezbollah’s adjacent ally, has faltered.

“Hezbollah is starting to realise that it is entrapped,” Lebanese governmental expert Karim Emile Bitar told Al Jazeera.

Before the war, Hezbollah had the quality to marque oregon interruption governments. But President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam were elected successful aboriginal 2025 contempt neither being Hezbollah’s preferred candidate.

Still, Hezbollah was either unwilling oregon incapable to disrupt the enactment of Salam’s government. Analysts said the radical is successful dire request of overseas assistance that the authorities could unafraid to assistance rebuild its constituencies damaged by Israeli attacks.

But that wealth has yet to get arsenic determination is determination and home statement implicit whether the authorities should person reconstruction funds earlier Hezbollah’s disarmament and different banking oregon governmental reforms.

Analysts and diplomats told Al Jazeera Hezbollah is inactive susceptible of raising tensions but has avoided fanning immoderate flames owed to the Lebanese state’s rising enactment arsenic good arsenic the fatigue and trauma Hezbollah members and supporters person owed to past year’s warfare and continuing Israeli attacks connected Lebanon.

Still, connected Thursday, Hezbollah supporters flocked to Beirut’s seaside successful remembrance of Nasrallah. Supporters projected their precocious leader’s representation onto the Raouche Rocks, defying orders from the premier minister’s bureau that banned the act.

The lawsuit was seen arsenic an look of emotion for Nasrallah by his supporters and a provocation by Hezbollah’s opponents. But the group, which has threatened violence to get its mode successful the past, has mostly avoided provocations since the war, isolated from occasional attempts to artifact roads that were rapidly reopened by the Lebanese military.

If Hezbollah is pursuing subject regrouping, a elder Western diplomat with cognition of the contented said, it would beryllium much apt successful the Bekaa Valley than successful the south, wherever the ceasefire mechanics had been mostly effectual astatine supervising Hezbollah’s withdrawal.

The group, however, does look to beryllium altering its governmental strategy, Young said, adding that Hezbollah, via instructions from Iran, whitethorn yet beryllium looking for definite compromises.

He pointed retired proposals by parliamentarians Ali Hassan Khalil, a Hezbollah ally, and Ali Fayyad, a Hezbollah MP, successful their subcommittees, wherever they spoke astir implementing the 1989 Ta’ef Accord, an statement that ended the civilian war, declared each militias should springiness up their arms and Lebanon should modulation to a nonsectarian strategy of power.

“Their implicit constituent is that ‘If we instrumentality Ta’ef successful its entirety, past that tin springiness america a greater relation with amended representation, and past we tin speech astir weapons,’” Young said.

Hezbollah supporters clasp pictures of longtime person Hassan Nasrallah successful Beirut’s confederate suburbs connected September 27, 2025, during a ceremonial marking the archetypal day of his assassination by Israel [AFP]

‘Time for Hezbollah to go’?

Amid the intensifying unit to disarm Hezbollah, analysts and diplomats fearfulness that if pressed excessively hard, the radical could lash out.

The US has announced a $14.2m assistance bundle for the Lebanese subject to assistance it disarm Hezbollah, and visits by US officials – including Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, lawman peculiar envoy Morgan Ortagus and peculiar envoy Tom Barrack – person intensified unit connected Lebanon.

“It’s clip for Hezbollah to go,” Graham said during his sojourn successful precocious August.

But Lebanon’s subject has rejected mounting a strict timetable for Hezbollah’s disarmament implicit fears the tense concern successful Lebanon could descend into violence.

Special envoy Tom Barrack has been portion of a US contingent applying unit connected Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah [AFP]

And quality of the US assistance has been received poorly successful parts of Lebanon, wherever it is seen arsenic portion of a US effort to usage Lebanon’s subject to execute Israeli interests.

“[The Lebanese army] volition ne'er service arsenic a borderline defender for Israel. Its weapons are not weapons of discord, and its ngo is sacred: to support Lebanon and the Lebanese people,” Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is simply a Hezbollah ally, said successful a connection connected Tuesday.

The fears of diplomats and analysts are that a confrontation betwixt the service and Hezbollah could pb to interior strife and a imaginable fracturing of the service on confessional lines – akin to what happened successful the aboriginal days of the 1975-1990 Lebanese Civil War.

“[Disarming Hezbollah by force] is the worst imaginable option, but obviously, this is however the Americans are progressively pressuring the Lebanese authorities to resoluteness this,” Young told Al Jazeera.

“The Lebanese service is not consenting to resoluteness it done the usage of unit due to the fact that they don’t privation to beryllium pushed into struggle with Hezbollah.”