Analysis: How happy is Israel’s Netanyahu with Trump’s Gaza plan?

Standing adjacent to Donald Trump connected Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged that helium had accepted the program enactment guardant by the United States president to extremity Israel’s warfare connected Gaza.

But a fewer hours aboriginal – and this clip speaking successful Hebrew alternatively than English – Netanyahu couched that agreement, telling his home assemblage that helium decidedly had not agreed to a Palestinian authorities and the Israeli subject would stay successful astir of Gaza.

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On paper, Trump’s 20-point program fulfils galore of Israel’s stated warfare aims: the instrumentality of Israeli captives, the dismantling of Hamas arsenic a subject and governmental force, and the instauration of a impermanent planetary medication successful Gaza improbable to endanger Israel.

But agreeing to immoderate woody has governmental and idiosyncratic costs for Netanyahu, who has kept his authorities unneurotic mostly due to the fact that of his insistence that the warfare continue. Is helium yet acceptable to extremity a struggle that has killed much than 66,000 Palestinians? Or volition helium find different mode to prolong the war?

Risky manoeuvre

As good arsenic fulfilling astir of Israel’s demands, Trump’s Gaza program besides lets Netanyahu contiguous himself arsenic a victorious warfare person earlier adjacent year’s elections arsenic good arsenic immoderate imaginable probe into authorities failings that whitethorn person led to the Hamas-led attacks connected confederate Israel connected October 7, 2023.

“For Netanyahu, Trump’s woody allows him to represent himself arsenic the afloat package,” Israeli governmental idiosyncratic Ori Goldberg said. “‘Look astatine me,’ helium tin say. ‘I fought the war. I destroyed each of Gaza. I went further than anyone ever thought possible. I person proven my devotion to Israel and its security, but present it’s clip for cooler heads to prevail.’”

“This isn’t astir facts. It’s astir narrative,” Goldberg added.

That is important for Netanyahu due to the fact that immoderate determination to extremity the warfare is simply a risky one. Netanyahu, contempt being Israel’s longest-serving leader, faces fierce absorption successful his ain state related to his ain home policies, the corruption charges helium faces and disagreements implicit his nonaccomplishment to hold a woody to merchandise the captives held successful Gaza.

He, therefore, has had to trust connected the enactment of far-right furniture members, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who person made their backing conditional upon maintaining and adjacent expanding the warfare connected Gaza.

Critics person besides suggested that Netanyahu whitethorn beryllium seeking to prolong the warfare to debar a imaginable situation word successful his ongoing corruption proceedings oregon to forestall an authoritative enquiry into his government’s failures earlier Hamas’s October 2023 attacks – inquiries that antecedently led to the resignations of Israel’s main of unit and the caput of its home quality service, Shin Bet.

“These risks haven’t diminished,” said Alon Pinkas, a erstwhile Israeli ambassador and consul wide successful New York. “You request to remember, Trump’s not similar [former US President Joe] Biden. Netanyahu can’t trust connected each his friends successful the Republican Party to effort to circumvent the president. That leverage has each gone. If Trump wants to, he’s successful a presumption to marque beingness precise hard for Netanyahu – and Netanyahu knows that.”

Pinkas explained that Netanyahu was instructed to alert to the US and hold to the program publicly. “I deliberation Trump guessed that, if this had been agreed down closed doors, Netanyahu’s much than susceptible of coming retired and presenting an wholly antithetic reality. … By making this statement successful public, helium can’t bash that,” helium said.

Far-right opposition

Demonstrations calling for negotiations to extremity the warfare and instrumentality the Israeli captives held successful Gaza person tally astir passim the conflict, and galore polls successful caller months suggested a bulk of the Israeli nationalist wants to spot an extremity to the war. Within the Knesset, oregon parliament, absorption MPs, including their leader, Yair Lapid, person repeatedly offered to lend Netanyahu the enactment needed to propulsion done a ceasefire, making an acceptance of the US presumption politically imaginable and publically popular.

But Netanyahu has alternatively repeatedly chosen to propulsion successful his batch with the acold right, which, acold from wanting an extremity to the war, wants Israel to afloat instrumentality implicit Gaza and settee it with Jewish Israelis portion forcing Palestinians out.

Smotrich has rejected the Trump plan, posting connected societal media that it is “a resounding diplomatic failure, a closing of eyes and turning our backs connected each the lessons of October 7, and successful my estimation, it volition besides extremity successful tears”.

Right-wing Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, left, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich are some thought to reason the Trump program [File: Maya Alleruzzo/ Pool/AFP]

Ben-Gvir is besides expected to reason the woody though his choler truthful acold has focused connected Netanyahu’s reported apology to Qatar – reportedly made nether US unit – for Israel’s unprovoked onslaught connected Hamas’s negotiating squad successful Doha successful September.

For the far-right settler movement, the program represents a disappointment but not a surprise. For Ben-Gvir, it is simply a setback successful a populist docket designed to stoke part and marque Palestinian lives harder.

Israeli information forces basal defender arsenic Israeli settlers circuit the aged marketplace connected the Palestinian broadside of Hebron successful the occupied West Bank connected September 6, 2025 [AFP]

“Smotrich and the settlers volition beryllium disappointed, but determination you go,” Goldberg said. “They each thought this was the last God-given warfare that would spot them triumphant. Now they’re opening to realise it was conscionable the aforesaid aged Netanyahu pantomime. Ben-Gvir volition astir apt see his options. He’ll astir apt unreal it isn’t happening. He’ll ne'er publically enactment it, but equally, he’s not going to unreserved to permission the cabinet.

“But this isn’t conscionable astir the cabinet. The Knesset is bound to enactment this with those that telephone themselves ‘liberals’ rallying circular to backmost what they’ll assertion is simply a ‘peace deal’. But what a ‘peace deal’ means successful the discourse of a genocide truly isn’t clear.”

Complicating the picture

While Netanyahu whitethorn anticipation to formed himself arsenic Israel’s saviour, analysts argued helium is trapped by condition and focused connected his contiguous survival.

“My conjecture is that he’ll effort and termination it softly,” Pinkas said. “He’ll accidental we’re studying it carefully, that we person immoderate flimsy information concerns and a fewer items to benignant out. At the aforesaid time, he’ll escalate the warfare connected Gaza and standard up his rhetoric connected Iran. In a fewer weeks, the world volition person changed, the program volition nary longer use and, helium hopes, Trump’s attraction volition person already moved on.”

Yossi Mekelberg of Chatham House agreed that Netanyahu’s skyline is defined by “political survival”. “If Ben-Gvir, Smotrich oregon different right-wing figures godforsaken the coalition, Netanyahu whitethorn telephone elections, claiming triumph by pointing to Hamas’s dismantling, the instrumentality of hostages and the beingness of overseas troops successful Gaza,” Mekelberg said. “‘We eliminated Hamas. We managed to get astir of the hostages alive. … Look what we person done,’ helium could argue.”

Yet Mekelberg warned that “the infinitesimal the warfare is over, Netanyahu mightiness precise rapidly find himself isolated” with rivals successful Likud, the acold right, the absorption and ultra-Orthodox allies each sensing weakness. “You ne'er stake against Netanyahu – helium knows however to manipulate. Still, he’s much and much successful a corner.”