Analysis: ISIL attacks could undermine US-Syria security collaboration

On December 13, a associated US-Syrian patrol was ambushed by a subordinate of Syria’s ain information forces adjacent Palmyra, a metropolis successful cardinal Syria erstwhile controlled by the ISIL (ISIS) group.

Two US soldiers and an interpreter were changeable dead, and 4 radical were wounded, earlier Syrian forces killed the gunman.

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In the aftermath of the attack, US and Syrian officials linked the attacker to ISIL, which erstwhile controlled immense swaths of Syria and Iraq, and promised to retaliate.

The incidental highlights the increasing practice betwixt the United States and Syria against ISIL, peculiarly aft Damascus joined the US-backed conjugation against the radical successful November.

While it is inactive unclear if the attacker was a subordinate of ISIL oregon different radical opposed to US-Syrian relations, analysts accidental that practice betwixt the 2 countries is beardown and increasing stronger.

“The Syrian authorities is responding precise robustly to warring ISIL pursuing US requests to bash so, and it is worthy noting that HTS [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham], earlier it was successful government, had a semipermanent argumentation of warring ISIL,” Rob Geist Pinfold, a student of planetary information astatine King’s College London, told Al Jazeera, referring to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s erstwhile group.

“It [HTS] did it successful Idlib, and cracked down connected insurgents and cells, and this is much a continuation of that policy.”

Syria’s Minister of Interior spokesman, Noureddine al-Baba, told Syria’s Al-Ikhbariah TV that determination was nary nonstop concatenation of bid to the gunman wrong Syria’s interior information forces, and that helium was not portion of the unit tasked with escorting the US forces. Investigations are nether way, helium added, to find whether helium had nonstop ties to ISIL oregon adopted convulsive ideology.

ISIL attacks down

In May 2015, ISIL took implicit the metropolis of Palmyra from the erstwhile Syrian government.

Famous for its Greco-Roman ruins, the metropolis bounced backmost and distant betwixt authorities forces and ISIL until the radical was expelled successful 2017.

In May 2017, the US-led conjugation besides forced the radical retired of Raqqa, which ISIL had declared the superior of its alleged caliphate 3 years earlier.

Many surviving ISIL fighters were imprisoned successful the al-Hol and Roj camps successful northeast Syria, controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Others escaped into the Syrian godforsaken astir Palmyra, from wherever they person occasionally launched attacks.

When the authorities of erstwhile Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fell connected December 8, 2024, analysts said ISIL fighters utilized the ensuing chaos to spell into assorted cities crossed the country. In June, the radical launched an attack connected a religion successful Damascus that killed astatine slightest 25 people.

Samy Akil, a chap astatine the Tahrir Institute, said caller estimates enactment ISIL’s manpower successful Iraq and Syria astatine betwixt 3,000 and 5,000 fighters.

But experts told Al Jazeera that the coordination betwixt Damascus and Washington has improved implicit the past year, and pointed to the information that Syria’s information forces person thwarted respective ISIL attacks owed to US-provided intelligence.

“Ahmed al-Sharaa’s caller authorities is committed to warring the radical and, successful opposition to the Assad era, al-Sharaa’s authorities gets regular tip-offs from US intelligence, and astir apt different forms of US enactment arsenic well. That’s a beauteous almighty combination,” Aron Lund, a probe chap astatine Century International, focusing connected Syria, told Al Jazeera.

This collaboration has seen a alteration successful ISIL attacks successful Syria, according to a study by consulting steadfast Karam Shaar Advisory. ISIL launched an mean of 63 attacks a period successful 2024, portion successful 2025, that fig dropped to 10, according to the report.

“Since HTS arrived successful Damascus, collaboration [with the US] has go overmuch easier,” Jerome Drevon, a elder expert with the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.

Structural flaws

After the autumn of the Assad regime, determination were questions implicit however information would beryllium enforced. The fewer 1000 HTS members who had antecedently lone controlled Idlib successful northwest Syria would not beryllium capable to enforce information crossed the country.

Syria’s information forces undertook a superior recruitment drive, bringing successful tens of thousands of caller recruits to adhd to galore of the existing erstwhile absorption battalions that were incorporated nether the state’s caller information apparatus.

With specified a immense recruitment campaign, analysts said, vetting was a hard task.

“The Palmyra onslaught points to structural flaws alternatively than a specified one-off event. Integration of erstwhile faction fighters and accelerated caller recruitment person produced uneven vetting and oversight, compounded by a permissive situation for extremist views, allowing infiltration to persist,” Nanar Hawash, International Crisis Group’s elder Syria analyst, told Al Jazeera.

“Together, these factors blur aboriginal informing signs and make abstraction for hidden threats, raising the hazard of repetition attacks.”

Analysts said they expect Syrian information forces to amended the vetting process with time. Meanwhile, different onslaught similar December 13’s was imaginable and could dent the US’s religion that al-Sharaa’s authorities tin supply information successful Syria.

“It could hap again owed to the sheer numbers [of caller recruits], but implicit time, the authorities volition amended its crippled and beryllium much thorough to forestall that from happening again, due to the fact that it volition person consequences,” Drevon said.

“We should beryllium cautious implicit generalising based connected 1 attack, which tin beryllium a one-off. But if it happens again, it mightiness alteration the cognition of the Syrian government.”

What does ISIL want?

As for ISIL, analysts said the group’s priorities person changed since the autumn of al-Assad.

“What we’re seeing present is ISIL is trying to trial boundaries and behaviour attacks knowing it cannot summation territorial control,” Akil said.

“It aims astatine destabilising and staying relevant.”

“ISIS cannot clasp cities oregon topple governments. But it doesn’t request to. Its spot lies successful destabilisation,” Hawach said. “The Palmyra onslaught showed that 1 operative with the close entree tin termination 3 US unit and shingle a bilateral relationship.”

Analysts said ISIL could destabilise Syria by targeting authorities information forces, spiritual minorities – similar it did successful the Damascus religion onslaught successful June – oregon immoderate foreigner connected Syrian soil, from US soldiers to humanitarian oregon United Nations workers. The radical could besides look to capitalise connected tensions betwixt the SDF and Damascus implicit disagreements connected however to integrate the erstwhile into the state’s information apparatus.

The SDF besides manages the al-Hol and Roj situation camps successful northeast Syria, wherever galore of ISIL’s astir battle-hardened fighters and commanders are held. This could beryllium to beryllium a cardinal people for ISIL successful Syria.

“ISIL thrives successful those vacuums,” Hawach said.

“It’s a guerrilla insurgency, not a caliphate, but successful a fragile state, that’s capable to origin superior damage.”