Analysis: Why Greenland and Europe might have to compromise with Trump

Europe mightiness connection a minerals woody and greater US information beingness connected Greenland. But volition that beryllium capable to satiate Trump?

What tin tiny nations bash to forestall being gobbled up by bigger, much almighty ones?

This is nary abstract question for Greenland close now. It’s precise real. And it has nary casual answers. Greenland’s autonomy, its future, hangs successful the balance.

Greenland is simply a territory of Denmark. Since 2009, it’s been mostly self-governing, and has the close to prosecute independency astatine a clip of its choosing. Independence is the privation of each its governmental parties. But with economical self-sufficiency immoderate mode off, it’s sticking with Denmark for now.

Not if United States President Donald Trump has his way. He wants Greenland for the US. Since the bombing of Venezuela and the abduction of President Nicolas Maduro, realisation has dawned that helium is deadly superior astir this. The White House has pointedly refused to instrumentality subject unit off the table, though the existent property mogul-turned-president would apt similar a elemental currency deal.

Europe is successful diplomatic situation mode. Denmark is simply a NATO member. The thought of NATO’s main guarantor – the US – annexing territory from a subordinate authorities seemed preposterous until recently. No longer.

So what tin Denmark’s friends bash to halt it?

The uncomfortable information is that if Donald Trump sends successful troops, Greenland would apt autumn successful days, possibly hours. Trump has mocked Denmark’s forces determination arsenic “two dogsleds”. And though this doesn’t conscionable immoderate information test, his constituent holds. Greenland is sparsely defended. Denmark’s Joint Arctic Command successful Greenland consists of a fistful of warships and hunt and rescue teams.

The US, meanwhile, already has a large basal successful northwestern Greenland, nether a 1951 pact that besides allows Washington to acceptable up much bases connected the island. Nearly 650 unit are stationed astatine the base, including US Air Force and Space Force members.

Copenhagen is tooling up. It has announced $4.2bn successful other defence spending for the Arctic. And it is buying 16 much F-35 combatant jets (from, of course, the US). But adjacent so, Denmark would person small accidental against the afloat mightiness of the US military.

So a diplomatic agreed beforehand has been launched. As with different Trump-created crises, Europe’s leaders are adopting an attack that could beryllium called transatlantic judo. Like judo wrestlers, they’re trying to redirect Trump’s vigor – his strident, America First unilateralism – and transportation him that the champion look of this is collegiate, transatlantic multilaterism.

Essentially, they’re saying, “Yes, Donald. You’re perfectly close to rise Arctic information arsenic a large problem. We wholly agree. While we’re not definite that invading Greenland is the answer, NATO is the solution.”

We’ve heard this connection from NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte successful caller days. And the British and German governments person some suggested NATO forces beryllium deployed to Greenland to boost Arctic security. A German delegation was successful Washington, DC, earlier Wednesday’s gathering betwixt State Secretary Marco Rubio and the Danish and Greenlandic overseas ministers.

While the Europeans effort their judo, Donald Trump’s attack is much sumo. Wielding the large geopolitical heft of the US, the president is unyielding. To each entreaties from bewildered Europeans, helium remains unmoved.

When they accidental helium tin person each the US subject beingness connected Greenland that helium wants nether the 1951 pact with Denmark, helium says helium wants more. When they accidental a unilateral annexation of Greenland would beryllium the extremity of NATO, helium shrugs arsenic if that mightiness beryllium a terms worthy paying. When they question his claims that Russia and China are poised to instrumentality implicit Greenland themselves, helium conscionable repeats them.

Appeasement oregon capitulation is possible. If the Europeans were panicked enough, they could thin connected Denmark to springiness Greenlanders the independency referendum that’s been talked astir for years. If Greenlanders chose afloat sovereignty – arsenic a bulk yet privation – Europe could assertion Greenland’s destiny wasn’t their occupation immoderate more. But we’re not successful that spot yet.

For now, European leaders are agreed down Copenhagen and Nuuk. Denmark’s sovereignty is inviolable, they say. And Greenland is not for sale.

What we could beryllium inching towards is simply a fudge. Something that everyone tin instrumentality arsenic satisfactory-ish. Maybe a assets woody for US entree to Greenland’s abundant deposits of metals and uncommon world elements. And possibly a beefed-up US subject presence. Enough for Trump to assertion a win. And for Europe to respire a suspiration of alleviation that NATO inactive has a heartbeat.