Are France, Germany and the UK about to ‘snapback’ sanctions on Iran?

Three European powers are expected to reimpose punishing United Nations sanctions connected Iran for ostensibly not engaging with the planetary assemblage to scope a woody connected its atomic programme.

Known arsenic the E3, France, Germany and the United Kingdom person fixed Iran until August 31 to marque immoderate pugnacious decisions.

As the deadline looms, observers and analysts fearfulness that reimposing UN sanctions volition importantly escalate determination tensions and embolden Israel and the United States to onslaught Iran again.

Standoff

While the stakes are high, the demands by the E3 –  3 of the six remaining signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran’s 2015 atomic woody – aren’t truthful casual to meet, experts told Al Jazeera.

They privation Iran to resume negotiations with the US implicit its atomic programme and let planetary inspectors backmost successful to show sites and stockpiles of highly enriched uranium.

The US discontinue the atomic woody successful 2018 and reimposed its ain sanctions connected Iran.

In April and May this year, it entered atomic talks with Iran, demanding that Iran springiness up its centrifuges – needed to highly enrich uranium – and “downblend” its existent atomic programme.

Downblending is simply a process wherever highly enriched uranium is diluted with low-enriched uranium.

But successful June, the US changed its presumption and demanded that Iran springiness up its full atomic programme, a proposition Iran rejected outright.

The US suspended talks, and Israel attacked Iran successful June, successful an evident effort to dismember the ruling government.  The “12-day war” saw the US articulation successful to weaponry Iran’s atomic sites.

Since then, the US has maintained that Iran indispensable springiness up its atomic programme arsenic a precondition for caller talks.

Iran has agelong stated that it has nary involvement successful pursuing a atomic weaponry and that its programme is for civilian purposes.

Moreover, arsenic a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran is entitled to enrich uranium for civilian sectors specified arsenic energy, crab research, and different technological research.

Trita Parsi, Iran adept and enforcement vice president of the Quincy Institute, told Al Jazeera the E3’s demands hazard accelerating different circular of determination conflict.

“If you restart talks astatine a infinitesimal erstwhile you cognize that talks volition fail, past you guarantee that subject attacks volition hap sooner alternatively than later,” Parsi told Al Jazeera.

Remnants of the JCPOA

The JCPOA was signed betwixt Iran and the members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), positive Germany and the European Union.

The woody stipulated that Iran indispensable not enrich uranium supra 3.67 percent, acold beneath weaponisation.

In return, the parties agreed to assistance debilitating UN sanctions, yet immoderate 1 of the signatories could reimpose sanctions unilaterally if they recovered Iran was not complying with the JCPOA.

When US President Donald Trump pulled his state retired of the JCPOA successful 2018, Iran accused the US of violating the woody and the Europeans of “indirectly” violating it by not providing options for Iran to debar US sanctions.

US President Donald Trump welcomes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House successful Washington, DC, connected April 7, 2025 [Saul Loeb/AFP]

Iran besides notified the Europeans and the US that it would summation enrichment levels beyond JCPOA limits.

Experts judge Iran was expanding enrichment to summation leverage with Western states for a aboriginal deal, arsenic Al Jazeera antecedently reported.

And aft the 12-day war, Iran denied entree to the UN’s atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is tasked with monitoring Iran’s atomic sites nether the NPT and the JCPOA.

Along with resuming talks with the US, the E3 requires Iran to assistance entree to IAEA inspectors successful instrumentality for delaying the triggering of snapback sanctions for different six months.

Some wrong Iran’s enactment judge the IAEA leaked delicate accusation to the US.

“One presumption coming retired of Tehran is that their practice with the IAEA implicit the years prepared the crushed for the [US] attacks…because the US and Israel had precise wide mapping and info of the programme,” Negar Mortazavi, an adept connected Iran with the Center for International Policy (CIP), said.

“There is present a large presumption successful Iran’s home governmental abstraction that possibly we should halt cooperating with the IAEA,” she added.

Iran is reportedly hiding immoderate 400kg (880lb) of 60 percent enriched uranium, a level conscionable beneath weapons-grade.

Iran views the 60 percent stockpile arsenic its past bargaining spot vis-a-vis Washington, according to Hamidreza Azizi, an adept connected Iran and visiting chap with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWB).

He added that Iran is, therefore, reluctant to disclose the whereabouts of that uranium retired of fearfulness of giving up its past root of leverage successful aboriginal negotiations.

“[The E3] wants implicit transparency that removes the ambiguity astir Iran’s astir delicate atomic activities. From their perspective, lone this would warrant extending the snapback deadline,” Azizi told Al Jazeera.

Zero-sum game

Iran has reached retired to the US to resume talks since June, according to CIP’s Mortazavi.

She added that, connected the 1 hand, Iran refuses to task weakness aft the warfare for fearfulness of signalling that it volition marque concessions if attacked by the US and Israel, while, connected the different hand, the US refuses to prosecute until Iran agrees to “zero enrichment”.

The US is besides struggling to prevention look aft Trump declared that Iran’s atomic programme had been wholly destroyed successful June, an assessment rapidly contradicted by US intelligence.

Yet immoderate resumption of talks would beryllium a wide admittance that Iran’s atomic programme is inactive precise overmuch functional, said Parsi.

Azizi, from SWB, believes that the E3 and Iran should see reaching a constricted and much flexible statement to debar snapback sanctions.

This could entail resuming constricted and reversible practice with the IAEA and establishing a roadmap for aboriginal talks with the US.

Iranians chant slogans and question nationalist flags arsenic they observe a ceasefire betwixt Iran and Israel astatine Enghelab Square successful the superior Tehran connected June 24, 2025 [Atta Kenare/AFP]

However, he’s not optimistic that the E3 volition widen specified an connection due to the fact that it would similar to find the stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium, which, successful their view, is simply a superior atomic proliferation threat.

Iran, for its part, seems acceptable to judge a woody that grants partial entree to the IAEA. Inspectors from the bureau reportedly arrived successful Tehran connected August 27, though the Iranian authorities said nary woody had been reached with the IAEA arsenic of yet.

Effect of sanctions?

If Iran doesn’t conscionable the E3’s demands, it volition travel nether a accepted arms embargo, look restrictions connected its ballistic rocket development, and its apical officials volition person their assets frozen and question bans issued for them.

Most notably, Iran volition beryllium ordered by the UNSC to halt uranium enrichment, arsenic per the JCPOA. This could springiness Israel and the US the legitimacy of planetary instrumentality to effort and “enforce” this bid by attacking Iran again, argues Parsi.

“When you person a request by the UN Security Council [saying] Iran should halt uranium enrichment, it means the US/Israel request volition abruptly person the unit of planetary instrumentality down it,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Azizi believes the operation of snapback sanctions, Iran’s hidden stockpiles of enriched uranium and deficiency of IAEA inspections could pb to renewed conflict.

“Israel has already demonstrated its willingness to usage unit again … If Iran were to resume enrichment astatine standard oregon amusement signs of moving toward weaponisation nether the screen of opacity, the hazard of different Israeli onslaught would emergence sharply,” helium told Al Jazeera.

What’s more, Iran would beryllium prohibited nether UN resolutions from importing weapons from Russia oregon China, which, successful theory, would marque the authorities and its radical much susceptible to outer threats.

China and Russia could disregard the sanctions, arguing they were an abusive effort to unit Iran to springiness up its atomic programme.

UN resolutions are often ignored by the US, its allies, and different satellite powers to support their interests.

Parsi argues that the E3’s menace of restoring UN sanctions is driven much by wanting to curry favour with the Trump medication than by immoderate existent interest for de-escalating tensions successful the Middle East.

“Europeans privation to get themselves connected the aforesaid leafage with the US,” helium told Al Jazeera.

“At the extremity of the day, what’s acold much important to the Europeans is that they support bully relations with the US, not enactment [to deescalate the situation] with Iran.”