Are Israel, Hamas entering the second phase of the ceasefire?

Hamas is expected to manus implicit the assemblage of the past Israeli captive held successful Gaza successful the coming days and has commented that it would beryllium unfastened to discussing “freezing” its weapons to facilitate entering the 2nd signifier of the ceasefire.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said connected Sunday that the 2nd signifier would beryllium challenging to execute but that it could statesman arsenic soon arsenic this month.

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However, Israel has been attacking Gaza passim the archetypal phase, sidesplitting astatine slightest 360 Palestinians, and inactive restricts the introduction of aid, with quantities allowed successful acold beneath what was agreed.

So, however has signifier 1 of the ceasefire gone? And what are the chances of it continuing into signifier two?

Here’s what we know.

Has Israel observed the ceasefire?

No.

Since the ceasefire began connected October 10, Israel has broken it much than 590 times, sidesplitting astatine slightest 360 Palestinians, and sending the full decease toll successful Gaza from 2 years of attacks supra 70,000.

Under the archetypal signifier – based connected US President Donald Trump’s 20-point bid program – Israel was required to halt its genocidal warfare connected Gaza, propulsion backmost its troops, let assistance in, and speech hundreds of Palestinian detainees for the remaining captives inactive held successful Gaza.

Speaking a period aft agreeing to the ceasefire, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel’s warfare connected Gaza “has not ended” and that Hamas “will beryllium disarmed”.

Throughout Israel’s genocidal warfare connected Gaza, Israeli officials person been pledging to “destroy” Hamas and claiming that Israeli bombardment, which has killed mostly civilians according to Israel’s ain tally, was to execute that.

Palestinians successful Gaza stay in limbo and suffering regular attacks.

Has Israel withdrawn its troops?

Under the presumption of the agreement, Israel initially pulled its troops backmost down what it called the “yellow line”.

Running astir the onshore edges of the Strip, the poorly demarcated yellowish enactment separates the areas of Gaza controlled by the Israeli service and those controlled by Hamas.

Hamas accuses Israel of pushing the yellowish enactment further into Gaza “daily”, displacing those who find themselves connected the incorrect broadside and sidesplitting Palestinians, including children, approaching the unclear boundary.

Has Israel allowed assistance in?

A afloat Israeli blockade connected Gaza this twelvemonth led to an engineered famine that was recognised by the UN-backed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) successful Gaza City successful August.

Since the ceasefire, Israel has allowed somewhat much assistance in, though acold little than Gaza’s needs and what the statement stipulated.

Aid agencies are reporting that the concern remains desperate, contempt cases of malnutrition starting to slow.

UNICEF and partners successful October identified astir 9,300 children little than 5 with acute malnutrition, 5 times the level reported during a erstwhile ceasefire successful February.

“A large information of the goods coming successful is commercialized [not humanitarian] – meaning that large assistance agencies, including UNRWA, aren’t getting there,” said Tamara Alrifai, the manager of outer relations for Gaza’s main assistance agency, UNRWA.

Is Israel truly committed to this ceasefire?

Considering Israel’s past actions – including unilaterally breaking a ceasefire earlier this twelvemonth and Netanyahu saying the warfare isn’t implicit – it is uncertain.

According to galore Netanyahu critics, overmuch of the genocide Israel unleashed connected Gaza has been shaped by his ain governmental circumstances.

But that makes him much reliant connected the Trump administration, which supports the ceasefire, to support him.

“Israel has ne'er had a person successful a weaker position, truthful the US volition ne'er person a amended accidental of pushing their woody through,” Yossi Mekelberg, a elder consulting chap astatine Chatham House, said, listing the threats to the PM that Trump’s enactment mightiness prevention him from.

Netanyahu has petitioned Israel’s President Isaac Herzog to assistance him a pardon successful his ongoing corruption trial. Trump has besides asked Herzog to pardon Netanyahu.

Netanyahu tin besides usage Trump arsenic an excuse if his far-right authorities members are angered by an extremity to the warfare connected Gaza.

“Netanyahu tin ever motion and say, ‘it’s not me, it’s Trump,'” Mekelberg said.

What’s planned for signifier two?

Phase 2 of the woody concerns Gaza’s post-war governance. The astir elaborate model truthful acold has been the US-backed plan, present endorsed successful portion by the UNSC.

The program sets retired a transitional signifier successful which Palestinian technocrats – not governmental factions – would tally day-to-day governance.

Their enactment would beryllium overseen by a multinational “Board of Peace”, and supported by an International Stabilisation Force tasked with information and demilitarisation. This is meant to let for the reconstruction of Gaza and halt a instrumentality to equipped conflict.

But Hamas and different Palestinian groups person rejected the thought of overseas guardianship implicit Gaza.

They were besides opposed to the UNSC resolution, saying it “paves the mode for tract arrangements imposed extracurricular the Palestinian nationalist will”.

So, could a last woody beryllium likely?

Other than the inactive escalating decease toll successful Gaza, thing is certain.

Netanyahu, according to his critics, is an opportunist to his core, who is inactive balancing respective competing threats astatine home.

Meanwhile, Trump and his inexperienced governmental negotiators drawn from extracurricular of the US’s diplomatic halfway find themselves negotiating a colony to some the genocide successful Gaza and the war successful Ukraine.

And, immoderate woody is agreed upon, Israel is astir definite to proceed to onslaught Gaza whenever it likes, overmuch arsenic it does successful the occupied West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and elsewhere successful the region.

A Palestinian authorities besides does not look immoderate person to fruition.

Mekelberg points retired that with truthful galore perchance shifting factors, including Israel’s home politics, it is hard to cognize if a last woody is achievable.

“It’s Netanyahu,” Mekelberg said.

“His corruption cuts done everything, from his legitimisation of the far-right astatine location to the mode he’s approached the conscription of the ultra-Orthodox [Jews successful the Israeli military]. It’s excessively messy. There are nary lines through.

“Add to this a US president that is besides unpredictable, and it’s adjacent to intolerable to foretell however this volition play out.”