As Trump and Xi near deal, few see letup in heated US-China rivalry

Gyeongju, South Korea – As US President Donald Trump and Chinese person Xi Jinping hole to conscionable for the archetypal clip since 2019, Washington and Beijing look poised to scope a woody to little the somesthesia of their fierce rivalry.

But portion Trump and Xi are wide expected to de-escalate US-China tensions successful South Korea connected Thursday, expectations are humble for however acold immoderate statement volition spell to resoluteness the myriad points of contention betwixt the world’s 2 largest economies.

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Many details of the expected woody that person been flagged successful beforehand subordinate to avoiding aboriginal escalation, alternatively than rolling backmost the commercialized warfare that Trump launched during his archetypal word and has dramatically expanded since returning to bureau this year.

Some of the projected measures impact issues that person lone arisen wrong the past fewer weeks, including China’s program to enforce strict export controls connected uncommon earths from December 1.

Whatever Trump and Xi hold to connected the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) acme successful Gyeongju, determination is small uncertainty that Washington and Beijing volition proceed to butt heads arsenic they jockey for power successful a rapidly shifting planetary order, according to analysts.

“I person humble expectations for this meeting,” said Deborah Elms, caput of commercialized argumentation astatine the Hinrich Foundation successful Singapore.

“I think, nary substance what happens this week, we haven’t seen the extremity of economical tensions, tariff threats, export controls and restrictions, and the usage of antithetic levers similar integer rules,” Elms told Al Jazeera.

US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a gathering connected the sidelines of the G20 acme successful Osaka, Japan, connected June 29, 2019. [Susan Walsh/AP]

Contours of a deal

While the nonstop parameters of immoderate woody are inactive to beryllium determined by Trump and Xi, the contours of an statement person emerged successful caller days.

US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said successful media interviews this week that helium expected China to defer its restrictions connected uncommon earths and that Trump’s threatened 100 percent tariff connected Chinese goods was “effectively disconnected the table”.

Bessent said helium besides anticipated that the Chinese broadside would hold to summation purchases of US-grown soya beans, heighten practice with the US to halt the travel of chemicals utilized to manufacture fentanyl, and motion disconnected connected a finalised TikTok deal.

While heading disconnected a further spiralling successful US-China ties, a woody on these lines would permission intact a wide array of tariffs, sanctions and export controls that hinder commercialized and concern betwixt the sides.

Since Washington and Beijing reached a partial truce successful their tit-for-tat tariff salvoes successful May, the mean US work connected Chinese goods has stood astatine much than 55 percent, portion China’s mean levy connected US products has hovered astatine astir 32 percent.

Washington has blacklisted hundreds of Chinese firms deemed to airs nationalist information risks, and prohibited the export of precocious chips and cardinal manufacturing instrumentality related to AI.

China has, successful turn, added dozens of US companies to its “unreliable entity” list, launched antitrust investigations into Nvidia and Qualcomm, and restricted exports of much than a twelve uncommon earths and metallic elements, including gallium and dysprosium.

US-China commercialized has declined sharply since Trump re-entered the White House.

China’s exports to the US fell 27 percent successful September, the sixth consecutive period of decline, adjacent arsenic outbound shipments roseate wide amid expanding commercialized with Southeast Asia, Latin America, Europe and Africa.

China’s imports of US goods declined 16 percent, continuing a downward inclination since April.

“The structural contradictions betwixt China and the United States person not been resolved,” said Wang Wen, dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies astatine Renmin University of China successful Beijing, predicting continuing friction and “even worse” relations betwixt the superpowers successful the future.

“Most importantly, China’s spot is expanding and volition surpass that of the United States successful the future,” Wang told Al Jazeera.

‘De-escalation unlikely’

Shan Guo, a spouse with Shanghai-based Hutong Research, said helium expects the “bulk” of the woody betwixt Trump and Xi to beryllium astir avoiding escalation. “A cardinal de-escalation is improbable fixed the governmental situation successful the US,” Guo told Al Jazeera.

A antheral films the logo of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation acme (APEC) extracurricular of the venue successful Gyeongju, South Korea, Tuesday, October 28, 2025 [Lee Jin-man/AP]

But with the US having nary alternate to Chinese uncommon earths and minerals successful the near-term, Washington and Beijing could enactment speech their differences for longer than past commercialized truces, Guo said.

“This means reduced downside risks successful US-China relations for astatine slightest a year, oregon possibly adjacent longer,” helium said.

Dennis Wilder, a prof astatine Georgetown University who worked connected China astatine the CIA and the White House’s National Security Council, said that portion helium is optimistic the acme volition nutrient “positive tactical results”, it volition not people the extremity of the commercialized war.

“A broad commercialized woody is inactive not available,” Wilder told Al Jazeera.

“Bessent and his Chinese counterpart volition proceed negotiating successful hopes of a much lasting statement if and erstwhile President Trump visits China adjacent year.”

Trump and Xi’s go-to connection connected the US-China narration itself points to the gulf betwixt the sides.

While Trump often complains astir the US being “ripped off” by China, Xi has repeatedly called for their relations to beryllium defined by “mutual respect” and “win-win cooperation”.

“The United States should dainty China successful a mode that China considers respectful,” said Wang of Renmin University.

“They person to respect China, and if they don’t, past the United States volition person an adjacent effect until they go capable to respect others,” helium added.