Attacking Qatar shows Israel doesn’t want a Gaza ceasefire

For astir 2 years, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gone retired of his mode to debar agreeing to a Gaza ceasefire.

In November 2023, a woody saw the merchandise of 110 captives taken during Hamas’s October 7 onslaught connected Israel.

But a week later, Netanyahu refused to widen the ceasefire, leaving the remainder of the captives behind.

Since then, whenever a ceasefire has seemed to beryllium wrong reach, Netanyahu has shifted the goalposts. In May 2024, Hamas accepted a projected deal, but Israel denied agreeing and invaded Rafah instead. By September, Netanyahu had introduced a caller condition: imperishable Israeli power of the Philadelphi Corridor – the country betwixt Egypt and Gaza – which some Cairo and Hamas rejected.

Later, aft pushing the presumption that lone a partial woody would beryllium agreed to, Netanyahu changed the parameters and insisted that Israel would lone hold to a woody that would spot each the captives released – and not successful instrumentality for an extremity to the war.

Even erstwhile allies precocious proposals, Netanyahu sidestepped them. Also successful May 2024, then-US President Joe Biden announced that Israel had offered a ceasefire plan, but Netanyahu stayed silent, and nary woody followed.

When a woody was agreed and implemented, Netanyahu ensured it broke down. In January 2025, nether unit from incoming US President Donald Trump, Netanyahu accepted a phased ceasefire woody that would proceed until a last colony to extremity the warfare was agreed. Yet by March, Israel unilaterally violated it, resuming bombardment and blockade.

And past week, arsenic Hamas negotiators met successful Doha to sermon a caller US-backed proposal, Israel bombed them, efficaciously sabotaging the talks.

Plates spinning

The Israeli authorities would importune that deals haven’t been reached due to the fact that the Palestinian radical Hamas has not been an honorable broker, and due to the fact that it volition effort to rearm indispensable beryllium eradicated.

But aft the onslaught successful Doha, Einav Zangauker, the parent of Israeli captive Matan Zangauker, who has been held successful Gaza for astir 2 years, was wide astir who was to blame.

“Why does the premier curate [Netanyahu] importune connected blowing up immoderate woody that comes adjacent to happening? Why?” she asked rhetorically.

Why indeed.

Netanyahu is Israel’s longest-serving premier minister. One of the reasons for his occurrence is his quality to support aggregate plates spinning – to juggle antithetic priorities, adjacent if they are sometimes contradictory, without resolving them fully.

Being capable to juggle these priorities allows Netanyahu to propulsion distant decisions that could pb to him losing enactment from the nationalist oregon from his governmental allies. And successful a state similar Israel, wherever parliamentary authorities is based connected who tin support the biggest coalition, that is vital.

Netanyahu is besides facing home ineligible occupation – helium is connected proceedings for corruption – and staying successful powerfulness is astir apt his champion stake astatine avoiding prison.

Coming backmost to the question of a Gaza ceasefire, Netanyahu has a cardinal problem: helium is beholden to the messianic acold close to prop up his government, and they person made it clear: an extremity to the warfare astatine this signifier volition spot them locomotion distant from the premier minister’s coalition, astir surely causing it to collapse.

The acold close – Israelis similar National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich – privation to propulsion Palestinians retired of Gaza and bring successful Israeli settlers to unrecorded successful the onshore near bare by those ethnically cleansed.

Netanyahu mightiness not beryllium wholly averse to that goal, but helium besides understands the trouble successful achieving it. Even Israel would beryllium stretched militarily if it were to effort to conquer and support the full of the Gaza Strip, and months oregon years of high-intensity struggle would origin much dissent from a subject that is heavy reliant connected calling up thousands of Israelis arsenic reservists.

And, of course, specified a brazen effort astatine taste cleansing would further isolate Israel internationally.

What comes next?

Instead, Netanyahu keeps the plates spinning. He keeps Ben-Gvir and Smotrich connected his broadside by ne'er agreeing to extremity the war, strings on mediators by sending dialog teams to sermon proposals helium won’t accept, and ne'er afloat commits to the subject combat that would beryllium indispensable to effort to wholly instrumentality Gaza.

He insists that Hamas cannot beryllium allowed to regularisation Gaza and rejects the Palestinian Authority ruling the enclave, portion besides saying Israel doesn’t privation to power it.

How agelong tin Netanyahu support this up? There were times erstwhile helium struggled, and it astir came crashing down.

Trump did not privation to instrumentality “no” for an reply successful January, forcing Netanyahu to hold to a woody that had been connected the array for much than six months. That led to Ben-Gvir resigning his authorities presumption and Smotrich threatening to resign his if the woody progressed and led to an extremity to the war.

As antecedently mentioned, it did not. And Ben-Gvir rapidly came back. Trump says contradictory things astir ending the war, lone to ne'er firmly archer Netanyahu to stop.

The adjacent Israeli elections person to instrumentality spot earlier October 2026. Perhaps Netanyahu volition beryllium capable to contiguous capable wins to the electorate – helium tin already reason that helium has weakened Hamas, defeated Hezbollah, and bombed Iran’s atomic sites – to get capable enactment that helium is nary longer reliant connected Ben-Gvir and Smotrich and tin extremity the warfare connected his terms, immoderate they whitethorn be.

Or possibly the warfare continues, perchance with pauses, lone for Israel to instrumentality to bombing Gaza erstwhile it feels the request to.

Alternatively, continuing the warfare with nary extremity successful show could summation some overseas and home opposition, ramping up the unit connected Netanyahu until helium is either forced to marque a determination connected ending the warfare oregon faces decision astatine the ballot container successful 2026.

The Palestinians of Gaza – of whom Israel has killed much than 64,800 – are the eventual casualties of the dragging retired of this war, arsenic good arsenic the Israeli captives inactive held successful Gaza.

For now, they volition support suffering – arsenic Netanyahu keeps his plates spinning.