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In Dhaka’s governmental chatter, 1 connection often keeps resurfacing erstwhile radical statement who truly holds the reins of the country: “Kochukhet”.
The neighbourhood that houses cardinal subject installations has, successful caller nationalist discussions, go shorthand for the cantonment’s power implicit civilian matters, including politics.
Bangladesh is weeks distant from a nationalist predetermination connected February 12, the archetypal since the 2024 uprising that ended past Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s agelong regularisation and ushered successful an interim medication led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.
The service is not vying for electoral power. But it has go cardinal to the voting clime arsenic the astir disposable guarantor of nationalist order, with the constabulary inactive weakened successful morale and capableness aft the upheaval of 2024, and with the state inactive reckoning with a “security apparatus” that watchdogs and authoritative inquiries accidental was utilized to signifier governmental outcomes nether Hasina.
For nearly a year and a half now, soldiers person policed the streets of Bangladesh, operating under an bid that grants them magisterial powers successful enactment of law and order. On predetermination duty, the deployment volition standard up further: Officials person said as many as 100,000 troops are expected nationwide, and projected changes to predetermination rules would formally list the armed forces among the poll’s “law-enforcing agencies”.
Bangladesh, a nation of much than 170 cardinal wedged betwixt India and Myanmar, has repeatedly seen governmental transitions hijacked by coups, counter-coups and military rule, a past that still shapes how Bangladeshis read the present. Analysts say that the army today is not positioned for an overt takeover, but it remains a decisive power centre: an instauration embedded across the state, able to constrictive civilian choices done its information role, quality networks and footprint wrong government.
Bangladesh’s Chief of Army Staff General Waker-uz-Zaman, seen present during an interrogation with Reuters astatine his bureau successful the Bangladesh Army Headquarters, successful Dhaka, Bangladesh, September 23, 2024 [Mohammad Ponir Hossain/ Reuters]The military’s relation now
Thomas Kean, the International Crisis Group’s elder advisor connected Bangladesh and Myanmar, said the service has been “backstopping the interim government” not lone politically but besides “through day-to-day information amid constabulary weakness”.
He said the instauration is anxious to spot a modulation to an elected authorities truthful the state returns to a firmer law footing and truthful troops tin “return to their barracks”.
“There are antithetic factions and views within the army, but wide I would accidental that the army wants to see the election instrumentality place as smoothly as possible,” Kean told Al Jazeera.
Kean argued that if the service chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman, and the subject “had wanted to instrumentality power, they could person done truthful erstwhile the governmental bid collapsed connected August 5”, the time Hasina fled to India amid a fashionable student-led revolt. But the subject chose not to, helium said, successful portion due to the fact that it had learned from the fallout of past experiments with its nonstop governmental control.
Asif Shahan, a governmental expert and prof astatine Dhaka University, said the subject was alert that a takeover would person besides jeopardised cardinal interests, including Bangladesh’s United Nations peacekeeping deployments, which transportation some fiscal benefits and reputational value for the equipped forces. Bangladesh has for decades been 1 of the biggest suppliers to UN peacekeeping missions, and receives betwixt $100m and $500m a twelvemonth successful payouts and instrumentality reimbursements for these services.
But Shahan argues that the subject remains “an important governmental actor”. Today, helium said, its power is “less astir overt involution than the organization value it carries done the information and quality apparatus”.
He besides pointed to what helium called the army’s “corporate” footprint. That footprint spans engagement successful large authorities infrastructure projects, the military’s ain concern conglomerate, and the beingness of serving and retired officers crossed commercialized and authorities bodies.
Shahan said the past Hasina authorities “gave them a stock of the pie”, leaving “a benignant of civilization of corruption … ingrained”. He suggested that this could construe into informal unit connected whoever governs adjacent to bash the same, and anxieties wrong the unit implicit whether “the facilities and privileges” it has accumulated volition shrink.
On the predetermination itself, Shahan excessively said that the anticipation of the service trying to summation overt power was “very low” unless determination is specified a large instrumentality and bid breakdown that determination is nationalist request for the service to measurement successful arsenic the “only root of stability”,
Others who way the subject intimately agreed. Rajib Hossain, a erstwhile service serviceman and writer of the best-selling publication Commando, said helium “strongly believes” the service volition debar partisan engagement for its ain sake. “The service volition play a neutral relation during this election,” helium said. “What we’ve observed connected the crushed implicit the past twelvemonth and a half, determination is nary grounds of the service acting successful a partisan way.”
But, helium added, unit connected the instauration has been aggravated since 2024. “Internally, there’s an knowing that if the service fails to enactment neutrally, it could suffer adjacent the nationalist credibility it inactive has,” helium said.
Mustafa Kamal Rusho, a retired brigadier wide astatine the Osmani Centre for Peace and Security Studies, besides told Al Jazeera that the subject does not person “any wide intent” to power politics, though “it inactive remains a captious powerfulness base”.
That leverage was clearest during the 2024 uprising, Rusho said, erstwhile Bangladesh’s governmental situation reached a constituent that galore Bangladeshis and planetary watchdogs viewed the military’s posture arsenic decisive. “If the subject did not instrumentality the basal that it took, past determination would person been much bloodshed,” helium said.
With protests escalating, the subject refused to afloat enforce Hasina’s curfew orders and decided troops would not occurrence connected civilians. It enabled Hasina to fly to India connected an aerial unit plane, and the service main past announced an interim authorities would beryllium formed.
In an Al Jazeera documentary connected the uprising past year, Waker-uz-Zaman, who is related to Hasina and was appointed little than 2 months earlier her collapse, besides stressed that his forces would not crook their guns connected civilians. “We don’t sprout astatine civilians. It’s not successful our civilization … So we did not intervene,” helium said.
In the aforesaid interview, helium added: “We judge that the subject should not prosecute successful authorities … It’s not our cupful of tea.”
Bangladesh’s subject person and president, Hussain Muhammad Ershad, gathering British PM Thatcher astatine Downing St. London connected February 16, 1989 [Wendy Schwegmann/ Reuters]When the subject ruled
That hasn’t ever been the military’s position.
After the 1975 assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh’s founding person and then-president, by a radical of subject officers, the state entered a play marked by coups, counter-coups and subject regularisation upheavals that reshaped the authorities and produced governmental forces that inactive predominate elections.
One of them was the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), founded by army general-turned-ruler Ziaur Rahman, who emerged as the country’s most powerful fig in the late 1970s earlier moving into civilian politics. Rahman was assassinated successful 1981 in a failed coup attempt by another radical of military officers. The BNP remains a key contender in the February 12 vote, present led by Rahman’s son, Tarique Rahman, who has returned to front-line politics after a long exile.
In 1982, past service main Hussain Muhammad Ershad seized powerfulness and ruled for overmuch of the 1980s. Writer and governmental historiographer Mohiuddin Ahmed has described Ershad’s takeover arsenic coming lone months aft helium publically argued that “the service should beryllium brought successful to assistance tally the country”.
Eventually, a pro-democracy question led by Zia’s wife, Khaleda Zia, and Hasina, besides Mujibur Rahman’s daughter, forced him from office. The BNP won a landmark election, and successful 1991, Khaleda became the country’s archetypal pistillate premier minister.
Since then, Rusho said, the military’s power “became much indirect”, though Bangladesh inactive saw an abortive May 1996 showdown erstwhile the past service chief, Lieutenant General Abu Saleh Mohammad Nasim, defied statesmanlike orders, and troops loyal to him moved towards Dhaka. Nasim was arrested and removed from office.
A decennary later, successful 2007, the subject successful effect “fully backed” a caretaker authorities that was formed to regenerate Khaleda’s 2nd administration, which had ruled betwixt 2001 and 2006. That caretaker authorities was installed successful January 2007 after a breakdown in the election process and escalating governmental violence. The International Crisis Group described the caretaker medication arsenic “headed by technocrats but controlled by the military”, portion then-army main Moeen U Ahmed argued the governmental clime “was deteriorating precise rapidly” and that the military’s involution had “quickly ended” thoroughfare violence.
It was lone aft 2009, erstwhile Hasina came backmost to powerfulness – her Awami League had archetypal ruled betwixt 1996 and 2001 – that the subject became “subordinate to the civilian regime”, Rusho said.
Bangladeshi subject unit soldiers connected armored vehicles patrol the streets of Dhaka, Bangladesh, Saturday, July 20, 2024 [Rajib Dhar/ AP Photo]Blurred lines
But adjacent though the subject contiguous insists that it does not privation power, it has often drifted into the governmental terrain.
A large infinitesimal arrived conscionable weeks aft Hasina’s ouster, successful September 2024, erstwhile General Zaman told the Reuters quality bureau helium would backmost Yunus’s interim authorities “come what may”, portion besides floating a timeline for elections wrong 18 months. The interview, which critics described arsenic thing unprecedented for a serving service chief, placed the subject adjacent to the country’s cardinal governmental debate.
Hossain, the erstwhile service serviceman and author, criticised the nationalist quality of the intervention. “If helium [Zaman] had discussed this aft sitting with each the stakeholders … the interim [administration], governmental parties, protestation leaders … and past gone to the media, that would beryllium acceptable,” helium said. “But here, helium declared it unilaterally and blindsided the authorities from his presumption of power. He had nary authorization to bash that.”
“You whitethorn accidental this is an extraordinary, transitional clip and the subject has a relation to play,” Hossain added. “But then, wherefore bash we person an medication astatine all?”
Shahan, the Dhaka University professor, said Zaman “came precise close” to crossing the enactment and explained it arsenic a merchandise of subject organization civilization aft August 5. “Military organisations … similar to travel lasting operating procedures, order, stability,” helium said. But August 5, helium added, was “a governmental rupture” that forced the service and the federation into uncertainty: astir the interim government’s longevity, legitimacy and however it would woody with the military.
Those anxieties, Shahan said, apt pushed Zaman to speak. In principle, helium said, it is tenable for the service main to accidental elections are needed for stability. But “when helium acceptable a circumstantial timeline – wrong 18 months – that is beyond his role”, Shahan said. “It past appears arsenic if helium is dictating.”
Shahan added that the occupation becomes sharper erstwhile that benignant of specificity appears to respond to a enactment demand; helium was referring to a clip erstwhile lone the Bangladesh Nationalist Party was repeatedly pushing for a vote timetable.
Eight months later, successful May 2025, Zaman again weighed in, telling a high-level subject gathering, according to section media reports, that his presumption had not changed and that the adjacent nationalist ballot should beryllium held by December 2025. After that, Faiz Ahmad Taiyeb, a peculiar advisor to Yunus, wrote connected Facebook that “the army can’t meddle successful politics” and argued that the military chief had failed to support “jurisdictional correctness” by prescribing an predetermination deadline.
Around the same period, rumours emerged suggesting that Yunus had considered resigning amid governmental discord.
Military unit basal successful beforehand of a representation of past Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina successful Dhaka, Bangladesh, connected July 30, 2024 [Rajib Dhar/ AP Photo]The shadiness Hasina left
Another crushed that analysts accidental the military’s relation is being debated truthful intensely present is due to the fact that of Bangladesh’s caller wounds.
During Hasina’s 15-year rule, quality rights organisations argued Bangladesh’s security apparatus was often utilized for governmental control. Human Rights Watch has described enforced disappearances as a “hallmark” of Hasina’s regularisation since 2009.
When the United States sanctioned the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) successful 2021 implicit allegations of extrajudicial killings, the US Department of the Treasury said, “These incidents people absorption enactment members, journalists, and quality rights activists.” Critics reason that information institutions became cardinal to governance, and questions astir however that machinery was utilized are present portion of the post-Hasina governmental settlement.
Hossain, the erstwhile officer, said the Hasina-era bequest inactive echoes wrong the apical brass. “If you look astatine the leadership, the general, 5 lieutenant generals, and immoderate large generals and brigadier generals, a batch of them were portion of Hasina’s apparatus,” helium said, “aside from a fistful of nonrecreational officers”.
A report by Bangladesh’s Commission of Inquiry connected Enforced Disappearances says disappearances were utilized arsenic a “tool for governmental repression” and that the signifier “reached alarming levels during cardinal governmental flashpoints”, including successful the run-up to elections successful 2014, 2018 and 2024. The committee said it verified 1,569 cases of enforced disappearance.
In cases wherever governmental affiliation could beryllium confirmed, the Jamaat-e-Islami and its pupil helping accounted for astir 75 percent of victims, portion the BNP and its affiliated groups accounted for astir 22 percent. Among those “still missing oregon dead”, the BNP and its allies accounted for astir 68 percent, portion the Jamaat and its affiliates accounted for astir 22 percent, the study said.
The committee besides noted that the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), the military-run quality agency, had been “accused of manipulating home authorities and interfering successful the 2014 parliamentary elections”, and argued that perceived alignment with the Awami League compromised its neutrality.
Several elder subject officers, including 15 successful service, are present facing proceedings successful a civilian tribunal connected charges of enforced disappearances, murders and custodial tortures.
The proceedings person go a delicate contented successful civil-military relations, arsenic cases against serving officers successful civilian courts are uncommon successful Bangladesh’s history.
Former service main Iqbal Karim Bhuiyan wrote connected Facebook that section media had reported disagreements implicit the “trial process” for officers accused of crimes against humanity and that those disagreements had created what helium described arsenic a “chasm” betwixt the interim authorities and the army’s apical leadership.
Hossain, the erstwhile officer, however, said helium disagreed. “These trials are not defaming the army,” Hossain said. “Rather, they are a benignant of redemption for the instauration to retrieve from the stigma created by the crimes of immoderate self-serving officers.”
He argued that accountability could motivate younger officers and trim the hazard of the subject being politically exploited again. Rusho, the retired brigadier general, besides argued that politicisation nether Hasina was driven little by ceremonial doctrine than by enforcement power implicit careers.
“Promotions, important postings, placements … they were influenced considerably by the enforcement branch,” helium said. “When you power postings, immoderate people’s loyalty often gets diverted to governmental masters, [and] it affects … professionalism and capability.”
Kean of the International Crisis Group said the existent trial for Bangladesh present would beryllium whether it tin halt the information authorities from being reabsorbed into partisan politics.
“The subject is going to stay a almighty instauration successful Bangladesh, with a level of power successful home politics,” helium said. “One hopes that the acquisition of the past 18 months is that the subject is amended to enactment civilian administrations alternatively than beryllium successful powerfulness straight – that it tin beryllium a stabilising force, and 1 that is yet committed to ideology and civilian leadership.”
But, helium added, the onus to bash that isn’t lone connected the generals. Civilian politicians, too, needed to defy the temptation to misuse the military. That alone, helium suggested, would assistance Bangladesh support the service successful the barracks and politicians accountable to the people, not to men successful khakis.
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