Bangladesh election: What’s at stake for India, China, Pakistan?

As Bangladesh prepares to clasp its archetypal elections since the overthrow of then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League enactment successful 2024, neighbours India, Pakistan and China are watching closely.

Bangladesh is presently being governed by an interim medication led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The 2 main parties competing for powerfulness successful this month’s polls are the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JIB), some of which began campaigning successful precocious January.

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The Awami League, which has historically had adjacent ties with India, has been barred from these elections due to the fact that of its relation successful the brutal crackdown connected student-led protests successful 2024. Hasina, 78, presently successful exile successful India, was recovered blameworthy of allowing lethal unit to beryllium utilized against protesters, 1,400 of whom died during the unrest.

She was tried successful absentia by the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) successful Bangladesh successful November past twelvemonth – and sentenced to decease – but truthful acold India has refused to extradite her.

Hasina has denounced the upcoming elections, telling The Associated Press quality bureau past period that “a authorities calved of exclusion cannot unite a divided nation”.

Since her ousting, governmental analysts say, Bangladesh’s geopolitical positions person undergone a “paradigm shift”.

“Bilateral relations with India person witnessed a historical debased successful opposition to a lukewarm rapprochement with Pakistan. Furthermore, strategical ties with China person deepened significantly,” Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan, lecturer of planetary studies and governance astatine the Independent University, Bangladesh, told Al Jazeera

“[Hasina’s] 15-year tenure was marked by respective cardinal features that defined the overseas and information argumentation of Dhaka successful presumption of outer engagement. Significant among these features were processing a adjacent and holistic bilateral necktie with India; strategical negligence and diplomatic isolation successful presumption of bilateral relations with Pakistan; and maintaining a beardown but calculated defence, trade, and infrastructure improvement concern with China,” helium said.

“This predictive and patterned alignment of Dhaka has present been reversed with respect to India and Pakistan oregon revised with respect to China,” helium said.

So, however bash India, Pakistan and China spot the upcoming elections? Does the predetermination result substance to these 3 nations?

Here’s what we know:

How are India-Bangladesh relations?

Until the toppling of Hasina, India mostly viewed Bangladesh arsenic an important strategical spouse and state with respect to maintaining information successful South Asia.

India is besides Bangladesh’s largest trading spouse successful Asia. Between April 2023 and March 2024, earlier Hasina’s ousting, India sold goods, including textiles, tea, coffee, car parts, electricity, agriculture, robust and alloy and plastics, worthy $11.1bn and imported readymade garments, leather and leather products, among different items, worthy $1.8bn.

Since Hasina fled to India, some countries person imposed restrictions connected each other’s exports, from onshore and sea, owed to ongoing tensions.

Over the decades since Bangladesh’s independency from Pakistan, which India supported successful 1971, their narration has had ups and downs depending connected which governmental enactment is successful powerfulness successful Dhaka.

Hasina, who served arsenic premier curate from 1996 to 2001 and again from 2009 to 2024, maintained adjacent ties with India.

“In the past 5 to six years, India and Bangladesh person scripted a aureate section of bilateral ties and fixed a caller magnitude and absorption to our partnership,” India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated successful March 2020.

But absorption parties successful Bangladesh often criticised Hasina for being “very weak” erstwhile it came to dealing with India.

According to the Indian regular Economic Times, successful 2016, a cardinal BNP advisor called connected Hasina to scrap definite associated task power-sharing projects with India since they could beryllium detrimental to Bangladesh’s environment.

For decades, the BNP has besides had an confederation with JIB, Bangladesh’s largest Islamist radical that advocates for stronger ties with Pakistan, India’s archenemy, and that opposed Bangladesh’s independency from Pakistan successful 1971.

Anti-India sentiment gained momentum successful Bangladesh aft Hasina’s ousting successful 2024 and India’s refusal to instrumentality her to the country.

The narration betwixt the 2 countries has further soured implicit the past year, particularly aft the execution of Osman Hadi, a 2024 protestation person who was vocally anti-Indian, which besides led to protests against India successful Bangladesh precocious past year.

India has besides alleged the ill-treatment of the Hindu number nether the interim authorities successful Bangladesh.

Last December, a Hindu Bangladeshi antheral was lynched successful the country’s Bhaluka portion aft being accused of making derogatory remarks against the religion of Islam. The incidental took spot amid wide protests aft Hadi’s death.

Also past month, the Bangladesh Cricket Board (BCB) requested that each of its team’s ICC Men’s Twenty20 World Cup matches scheduled successful India beryllium shifted to Sri Lanka.

But the International Cricket Council (ICC) responded to this request past play by expelling Bangladesh from the tourney instead. In a amusement of solidarity, the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) swiftly threw its value down Bangladesh and, connected Sunday, Pakistan said it would garbage to instrumentality portion successful its lucifer against India, scheduled for February 15.

“India suffered a important strategical nonaccomplishment erstwhile Hasina was ousted, and it has been precise uncomfortable with the interim government. New Delhi felt that it [Bangladesh] was heavy influenced by Jamaat and different spiritual actors that, successful India’s view, endanger its interests,” Michael Kugelman, elder chap for South Asia astatine the Atlantic Council, told Al Jazeera.

However, amid ongoing tensions, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Yunus held their archetypal gathering connected the sidelines of a BIMSTEC acme successful Bangkok, Thailand, successful April past year. Vikram Misri, India’s overseas secretary, told reporters that Modi had “reiterated India’s enactment for a democratic, stable, peaceful, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh”.

Misri added that Yunus and Modi besides discussed Hasina’s extradition. But to date, Hasina remains successful India.

How does India presumption the upcoming election?

Analysts accidental the stakes are precocious for India.

“India is hoping that this upcoming predetermination volition nutrient a authorities that is consenting to prosecute with India and volition not beryllium influenced by the types of actors that India feels endanger its interests,” Kugelman said.

It is improbable that immoderate caller authorities volition disregard worsening tensions with India, however, said Rejwan of Independent University, adjacent if it includes JIB oregon different Islamist parties.

“Any authorities coming to powerfulness successful Dhaka volition find it hard to neglect its largest neighbour and a determination powerfulness similar India for the involvement of communal involvement regarding nontraditional information threats, commercialized and nutrient security, taste and quality ties,” helium said.

“It is casual to springiness inflammatory and fashionable rhetoric against India erstwhile you are competing for votes, but erstwhile you are successful government, the populist posture yet changes portion dealing with a almighty and influential neighbour.”

Driven by New Delhi’s “Neighbourhood First” policy, which focuses connected maintaining affable relations with neighbours to safeguard its security, Indian policymakers person often stressed that the subcontinent needs to support a affable narration with Bangladesh.

Speaking astatine an lawsuit successful the southbound Indian metropolis of Chennai past month, India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar wished Bangladesh “well” for the upcoming elections. “We anticipation that erstwhile things settee down, the consciousness of neighbourliness successful this portion volition grow,” helium said.

Jaishankar besides visited Dhaka successful aboriginal January for the ceremonial of erstwhile Bangladeshi Prime Minister and BNP person Khaleda Zia. He aboriginal wrote connected X that helium had conveyed his condolences connected behalf of India to Khaleda’s son, Tarique Rahman, and “expressed assurance that Begum Khaleda Zia’s imaginativeness and values volition usher the improvement of our [India and Bangladesh’s] partnership”.

Atlantic Council’s Kugelman said India is apt to beryllium acrophobic from governmental and information standpoints if JIB wins the election, but would beryllium “comfortable” with a BNP-led government.

“Today’s BNP nary longer has an confederation with Jamaat, and the enactment has expressed its interests astir wanting to prosecute with India,” helium noted.

“I deliberation that India volition beryllium acceptable to prime up the pieces of what has been a shattered narration with Bangladesh … It evidently would person preferred the Awami League to beryllium starring the adjacent government. But India besides recognises that the Awami League is not going to beryllium a governmental origin for rather immoderate clip and is not going to effort to propulsion for ways to bring the Awami League backmost into the mix. It would judge a authorities led by the BNP and would beryllium consenting to enactment with it,” Kugelman added.

But with polls suggesting that the Jamaat and BNP are successful a neck-to-neck race, India has been reaching retired to both. In an interrogation this month, Jamaat main Shafiqur Rahman revealed that an Indian diplomat had met him successful December. And Indian precocious commissioner successful Dhaka, Pranay Verma, met BNP person Tarique Rahman connected January 10.

How are Pakistan-Bangladesh relations?

Since Hasina’s ousting, Pakistan’s relationship with Bangladesh has grown warmer.

In 2024, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met Yunus twice, seeking to fortify subject and diplomatic ties. In September past year, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar visited Dhaka, seeking to “reinvigorate” a narration that had been fractured since Bangladesh’s 1971 warfare of independency with Pakistan.

After India and Pakistan gained independency from British regularisation successful 1947, Pakistan was created arsenic a Muslim-majority authorities with 2 geographically separated regions, with Bangladesh being known arsenic East Pakistan. In 1971, India supported Bangladesh’s liberation conflict successful which the Pakistani subject carried retired atrocities, sidesplitting hundreds of thousands of radical and allegedly raping an estimated 200,000 women. Bangladesh continues to question an apology from Pakistan.

But according to analysts, Yunus’s interim authorities has been seeking to boost economical ties with Pakistan. Last February, the 2 nations resumed nonstop commercialized for the archetypal clip since the 1971 warfare nether a caller statement negotiated by Yunus. Last week, they resumed nonstop flights aft 14 years. Flight services had been stopped successful 2012, with Dhaka citing information concerns. The 2 nations person besides held subject and defence dialogues implicit the past year.

“Pakistan chiefly wants to make person bilateral ties by extending its defence and taste diplomacy with Bangladesh,” Independent University’s Rejwan said. “This is because, successful reality, fixed its ain economical challenges, it has precise small to connection to Bangladesh successful presumption of commercialized and investment. By doing so, it wants to heighten India’s information concerns to its eastbound by processing adjacent strategical ties with Dhaka.”

He added that portion Pakistan has mostly refrained from commenting connected the ousting of Hasina directly, it does purpose to instrumentality vantage of the ongoing governmental alteration successful Bangladesh.

“[Pakistan] has tried to sideline the acheronian genocidal legacies of 1971 during the liberation warfare of Bangladesh by utilising the rising anti-India and Islamist sentiment successful Bangladesh,” helium said. “Moreover, it has besides been the astir progressive proponent of creating a Bangladesh-China-Pakistan trilateral determination arrangement, thing astir which Dhaka has expressed its reservations until now.”

How does Pakistan presumption the upcoming elections?

According to Kugelman, Pakistan volition beryllium blessed with either of the 2 main parties coming to powerfulness successful the upcoming elections, but a JIB triumph would beryllium ideal.

“Pakistan would intelligibly beryllium the lone determination subordinate that would astir similar a Jamaat government,” helium said.

“If we spot a BNP-led government, I think, Pakistan would beryllium OK with that,” helium said.

But helium warned that Islamabad would beryllium anxious to guarantee that BNP does not effort to spot Bangladesh’s ties with India.

“That would diminish Islamabad’s caller efforts to enactment towards a amended narration with Bangladesh.”

Still, Kugelman pointed out, “if Jamaat comes to power, determination is simply a precocious accidental that contempt having adjacent ties with Islamabad, they mightiness besides make an knowing with New Delhi for their ain involvement alternatively than being overtly confrontational,” helium said.

“BNP, successful contrast, volition support each the channels of practice unfastened with Pakistan but volition not … tilt heavy connected Islamabad. BNP’s argumentation is large and clear; it’s Bangladesh first, which means nationalist involvement comes first, which means avoiding bandwagoning a overseas powerfulness and, rather, strategically hedging with a divers scope of outer partners,” helium added.

How are China-Bangladesh relations?

China’s power successful South Asia has been increasing successful caller years, and the state has been making efforts to boost military and economical ties with Bangladesh.

While China backed Pakistan during Bangladesh’s 1971 liberation war, since 1975, the 2 nations person been diplomatic partners, and Beijing has maintained cordial relations with Dhaka irrespective of the governing party.

Under Hasina, the 2 signed respective economical agreements. That inclination has continued nether Yunus, whose medication has secured astir $2.1bn successful Chinese investments, loans and grants and encouraged much concern from the world’s second-largest system successful Bangladeshi infrastructure.

China has besides pledged assistance for Bangladesh successful managing the influx of refugees to Cox’s Bazar, wherever hundreds of Rohingya person fled persecution successful Myanmar, placing unit connected Bangladesh’s infrastructure.

Last year, Yunus said helium had discussed the imaginable acquisition of combatant jets during his sojourn to China, though a woody has yet to beryllium signed.

“China has been pragmatic and realistic astir Hasina’s ouster,” Rejwan said. “Beijing warmly welcomed the enactment of the interim authorities and was 1 of the archetypal outer partners to widen each kinds of enactment nether the caller governmental realities successful Bangladesh.”

“Due to this Chinese charm offensive, the interim authorities successful Dhaka further bolstered the existing bilateral practice with Beijing,” helium added. “Indeed, it tin beryllium said that the Sino-Bangladesh relations were beardown during Hasina’s authorities and adjacent stronger nether the existent interim administration, and are perceived to stay arsenic truthful irrespective of whoever comes to powerfulness successful Dhaka aft the election,” helium added.

How does China presumption the upcoming election?

China appears to beryllium taking an progressive interest. Over the past year, Chinese leaders person been gathering leaders from Bangladesh’s governmental parties up of the elections.

In April past year, a elder Chinese Communist Party delegation met a delegation from the Jamaat. In June, Chinese Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Sun Weidong met BNP secretary-general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir. In some these meetings, the upcoming elections were discussed.

Kugelman said China volition ticker the elections intimately arsenic it views Bangladesh arsenic a cardinal commercialized and concern partner.

“For Beijing, governmental stableness successful Dhaka is cardinal owed to its investments successful the region. Beijing wants to guarantee that the law-and-order challenges and different information concerns successful Bangladesh would not interaction Chinese interests connected the ground,” helium said.

Rejwan said, for China, the upcoming elections are besides important since Bangladesh, for its strategical power implicit South Asia, a portion which has agelong been considered India’s sphere of influence.

“Unlike India, China has refrained from interfering successful the home authorities of Bangladesh and has historically maintained adjacent ties with governmental parties similar BNP and JIB adjacent during the highest of Hasina’s rule,” helium said.

But erstwhile it comes to the predetermination outcome, Rejwan said, China has nary explicit favourites.

“Whoever wins the majority, it volition springiness its afloat enactment to that authorities and, broadside by side, volition support enactment with different large governmental parties. Beijing prefers inclusive alternatively than exclusive interactions with each the governmental players successful Bangladesh,” helium said.

“China’s superior situation volition beryllium to forestall immoderate US power implicit the enactment that secures the bulk successful the polls and forms the government,” Rejwan added.