BNP leader Tarique Rahman returns: Who is Bangladesh’s potential next PM?

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After 17 years successful exile, Tarique Rahman, person of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and frontrunner to beryllium the South Asian nation’s adjacent premier minister, returned to Dhaka connected Thursday to a rousing invited by thousands of his party’s supporters.

Rahman, agelong seen arsenic a prince of Bangladeshi politics, got down astatine the Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport successful Dhaka, alongside his woman Zubaida and girl Zaima, and stood barefoot connected Bangladeshi ungraded amid dense security.

Rahman’s symbolic gestures marking his instrumentality to Bangladesh travel astatine a important juncture successful the country’s politics, and correspond a large changeable successful the limb to the BNP cadre and leaders. An interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, has been successful powerfulness since August 2024, pursuing the ouster of then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina successful a student-led uprising. The Yunus medication has announced elections connected February 12, aft which it is to peacefully transportation powerfulness to an elected government.

Rahman’s mother, the erstwhile Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, has been hospitalised successful a captious information since November 23. As the de facto person of the BNP, Bangladesh’s largest governmental party, Rahman mightiness beryllium holding the nation’s reins soon.

So, here’s everything you request to cognize astir him, his beingness successful exile and the value of his instrumentality for the South Asian nation.

Who is Rahman?

Rahman, 60, is the eldest lad of erstwhile Bangladesh President Ziaur Rahman and Khaleda Zia, who successful 1991 became the country’s archetypal pistillate premier minister.

Rahman has lived successful London since 2008 and has led the BNP arsenic acting president since 2018, erstwhile his ailing mother, Zia, was jailed nether the regularisation of her governmental rival and past premier minister, Hasina.

He became a large nationalist fig during his mother’s 2nd word successful power, from 2001 to 2006. But helium besides drew allegations of cronyism, corruption and governmental violence. A military-backed caretaker authorities that held bureau betwixt 2006 and aboriginal 2009 investigated those allegations.

In March 2007, helium was arrested by service units that dramatically pulled up extracurricular his luxury Dhaka location precocious astatine night. Months later, helium was released connected bail and flew to the United Kingdom for aesculapian treatment — not returning until Thursday.

Rahman and the BNP person consistently described the accusations against him arsenic politically motivated, but his estimation for corruption extended beyond his governmental opponents. Rahman’s sanction popped up successful leaked diplomatic cables, published by WikiLeaks successful 2011, wherever American diplomat James F Moriarty described him arsenic a awesome of “kleptocratic authorities and convulsive politics”.

Recommending blocking his introduction into the United States, the American embassy successful Dhaka wrote: “In short, overmuch of what is incorrect successful Bangladesh tin beryllium blamed connected Tarique and his cronies.”

He was subsequently convicted by the Awami League authorities connected charges of wealth laundering, fraud and governmental unit – including a grenade onslaught connected rival Hasina’s rally successful 2004 that killed astatine slightest 20 people.

But aft the August 2024 uprising against Hasina, the charges and convictions against Rahman person mostly been stayed oregon overturned, facilitating his instrumentality to Dhaka.

Addressing his supporters astatine a rally successful Dhaka connected Thursday, Rahman said, “Just similar 1971, radical from each walks of life, each together, defended the independency and sovereignty of this state successful 2024,” referring to the country’s warfare of independency from Pakistan successful 1971, and Hasina’s ouster past year.

He called for an inclusive Bangladesh, saying, “It is clip for america each to physique the state together. We privation to physique a harmless Bangladesh. In Bangladesh, nary substance who a woman, man, oregon kid is, they should beryllium capable to permission their homes safely and instrumentality safely.”

Why was Rahman successful exile?

Since 1991, Khaleda and Hasina – 2 pistillate leaders of opposing governmental dynasties – person alternated powerfulness for much than 3 decades, barring a fewer transitional heads.

Hasina, who led the Awami League, entered authorities aft the assassination of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh’s founding president, who was killed on with astir of his household successful a subject coup successful August 1975; Khaleda roseate aft the assassination of her husband, Ziaur Rahman, a erstwhile service main who became president and was killed successful a failed coup successful May 1981.

The parties person remained governmental rivals for decades, but for a little play erstwhile they joined forces to regain powerfulness from a subject leader, General Hussain Muhammad Ershad, successful the precocious 1980s.

In 2009, aft Hasina returned to powerfulness successful Dhaka aft 8 years successful opposition, Zia’s BNP recovered itself connected the different broadside of the crackdown during Hasina’s long, uninterrupted years of rule.

While respective BNP leaders and activists faced abuse, jail, and trials, Rahman had flown to the UK successful September 2008, aft helium was released connected bail pursuing astir 18 months successful detention during the 2007-08 exigency rule.

What is the value of Rahman’s return?

After years astatine the helm successful Dhaka, Hasina was confronted past twelvemonth by a popular, student-led uprising. The protests began arsenic a run against a arguable affirmative-action argumentation for authorities jobs, but amid a brutal crackdown by information forces, escalated into wider demands for an extremity to her rule. The United Nations says up to 1,400 radical were killed.

Anger grew implicit her iron-fisted 15-year leadership, during which thousands of governmental opponents and critics were arrested, killed, tortured oregon forcibly disappeared. In elections wide viewed arsenic illegitimate, Hasina won landslides successful 2014, 2018 and 2024.

Ultimately, protesters overran her residence aft she fled Bangladesh by chopper connected August 5, 2024, to India.

Last month, Hasina was sentenced to decease by hanging aft she was recovered blameworthy of crimes against humanity for ordering the deadly crackdown against the student-led uprising, by a tribunal. The Awami League, her party, has been barred from participating successful the February elections.

Meanwhile, interim person Yunus met Rahman during a sojourn to London successful June.

Rahman has besides returned astatine a clip erstwhile his mother, Khaleda, is successful hospital. Some analysts judge that the BNP is present trying to assertion the governmental abstraction vacated by the prohibition connected the Awami League — with secular, liberal, centrist positions. They mention the BNP’s caller breakup with the Jamaat-e-Islami, the country’s largest Islamist unit and a longtime state of Rahman’s party.

Jon Danilowicz, a erstwhile US diplomat who spent 8 years moving successful Bangladesh, said Rahman’s instrumentality was “the past portion of the puzzle arsenic acold arsenic Bangladesh’s preparations for elections are concerned”.

Danilowicz told Al Jazeera that by starring the BNP campaign, “Rahman would person an accidental to larn much astir what has changed successful the state implicit the past 17 years, and his chap Bangladeshis volition get to cognize however helium has changed during this period.”

How is the BNP placed for the upcoming election?

The BNP is seen arsenic the frontrunner to unafraid a bulk ballot successful the upcoming elections, which would people a instrumentality to the authorities aft astir 2 decades for the party.

A December canvass by a United States-based nonprofit, the International Republican Institute (IRI), showed the BNP starring with 30 percent support, followed by the Jamaat-e-Islami with 26 percent. Bangladesh follows a first-past-the-post strategy successful its elections, truthful successful a multiparty contest, candidates bash not request a bulk to win.

The National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by a faction of pupil leaders aft the uprising, has been struggling to person thoroughfare powerfulness into electoral spot owed to anemic organisation and constricted funds. The enactment trails acold down the BNP, with conscionable 6 percent support, according to the IRI poll.

With Hasina’s Awami League barred from information successful the election, Rahman’s BNP looks poised successful a favourable electoral scenery for the post-Yunus play successful Bangladesh.

Danilowicz, the erstwhile US diplomat, noted that the upcoming predetermination is BNP’s to lose; “The enactment has demonstrated large resilience implicit the past 17 years; it has been retired of government, with enactment leaders facing the afloat repressive unit of the state,” helium said.

Now, upon his return, Rahman besides faces the value of his ain governmental legacy: “The situation volition beryllium integrating [Rahman’s] tiny halfway of trusted lieutenants who stuck with him passim his exile with the broader enactment apparatus that was assembled by his mother, and which remained successful the country.”

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