‘Bomb first’: Trump’s approach to war-making in his second term

Washington, DC – During the archetypal six months of his 2nd term, Donald Trump pushed the limits of US statesmanlike powerfulness portion aiming to reorient US overseas argumentation to “America First”.

His archetypal months successful bureau person besides offered a model into the aboriginal of his administration’s attack to war-making, what analysts characterise arsenic an astatine times contradictory maneuver that oscillates betwixt avowed anti-interventionism and quicksilver subject attacks, justified arsenic “peace done strength”.

While questions stay implicit whether Trump has so pursued a coherent strategy erstwhile it comes to nonstop US engagement successful planetary conflict, 1 happening has been wide successful the archetypal information of Trump’s 2nd four-year term: US aerial attacks, agelong Washington’s instrumentality of prime since launching the alleged “war connected terror” successful the aboriginal 2000s, person again surged.

According to a study released past week by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), since Trump’s re-entry into bureau connected January 20, the US has carried retired 529 aerial attacks successful 240 locations crossed the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa.

That figure, which accounts for conscionable the archetypal 5 months of Trump’s four-year word arsenic president, is already nearing the 555 attacks launched by the medication of US President Joe Biden implicit his full word from 2021 to 2025.

“The astir utmost instrumentality astatine his disposal – targeted airstrikes – is being utilized not arsenic a past resort, but arsenic the archetypal move,” Clionadh Raleigh, a prof of governmental geography and struggle and laminitis of ACLED, said successful a connection accompanying the report.

“While Trump has repeatedly promised to extremity America’s ‘forever wars’, helium has seldom elaborated connected how. These aboriginal months suggest the program whitethorn beryllium to usage overwhelming firepower to extremity fights earlier they begin, oregon earlier they resistance on.”

A ‘Trump Doctrine’?

Trump’s willingness to unleash lethal unit overseas – and the inherent hazard that the brazen attack carries of dragging the US into protracted struggle – has already roiled influential segments of the president’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) base, coming to a caput implicit Trump’s six-week bombing campaign against the Houthis successful Yemen and, much recently, his June determination to strike 3 atomic facilities successful Iran amid Israel’s violative connected its neighbour.

In turn, Trump’s apical officials person sought to bring coherence to the strategy, with Vice President JD Vance successful precocious June offering the clearest imaginativeness yet of a Trump blueprint for overseas intervention.

“What I telephone the ‘Trump Doctrine’ is rather simple,” Vance said astatine the Ohio speech. “Number one, you articulate a wide American interest, and that’s successful this lawsuit that Iran can’t person a atomic weapon.”

“Number two, you effort to aggressively diplomatically lick that problem,” helium said.

“And fig three, erstwhile you can’t lick it diplomatically, you usage overwhelming subject powerfulness to lick it, and past you get the hellhole retired of determination earlier it ever becomes a protracted conflict.”

But the world of Trump’s aboriginal diplomatic and subject adventures has not matched the imaginativeness outlined by Vance, according to Michael Wahid Hanna, the US Program Director astatine Crisis Group. He called the connection an effort to “retrofit coherence”.

While Hanna cautioned against putting excessively overmuch banal into a unified strategy, helium did constituent to 1 “consistent thread”: a diplomatic attack that appears “haphazard, not afloat conceived, and characterised by impatience”.

“For each of the speech astir being a peacemaker and wanting to spot speedy deals, Trump has a peculiarly unrealistic presumption of the ways successful which diplomacy tin work,” helium told Al Jazeera.

The US president had vowed to alteration bid efforts successful the Russia-Ukraine war, but an earlier unit run against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has since seen Trump circle back to the Biden administration’s hardline attack to Russia, with small advancement made successful between.

After an archetypal ceasefire successful Gaza, Trump officials person failed to marque meaningful advancement successful reigning successful Israel’s war, leaving the menace of knock-on conflicts, including with Iran and the Houthis successful Yemen, unanswered.

Earlier diplomatic overtures to code Iran’s atomic programme stalled arsenic Trump took a maximalist attack seeking to artifact immoderate uranium enrichment. The effort dissolved aft the US failed to constrain Israel’s subject run against Tehran, arsenic the US continues to supply billions successful subject backing to the “ironclad ally”.

“It’s hard to argue, arsenic Vance did, that the United States has truly pushed arsenic hard arsenic they tin connected diplomacy,” Hanna told Al Jazeera.

Under Vance’s logic, helium added, “that leaves them with nary different means than to respond militarily”.

‘Bomb archetypal and inquire questions later’?

The aboriginal accent connected aerial attacks has been accompanied by vows by Trump and his Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth to reconstruct a “warrior ethos” wrong the US military.

Indeed, Trump has appeared to relish the subject actions, posting a video of the onslaught connected an ISIL (ISIS) affiliated people successful Somalia connected February 1, conscionable 10 days aft taking office.

He made a constituent to gully a examination to Biden, who tightened rules of engagement policies Trump had loosened during his archetypal word and entered bureau vowing to severely bounds the reliance connected US strikes.

Trump wrote that “Biden and his cronies wouldn’t enactment rapidly capable to get the occupation done”.

“I did! The connection to ISIS and each others who would onslaught Americans is that “WE WILL FIND YOU, AND WE WILL KILL YOU!”

All told since taking bureau six months ago, Trump has carried retired astatine slightest 44 aerial strikes successful Somalia, wherever the US has long targeted some a section ISIL offshoot and al-Shabab, according to ACLED data. The Biden medication carried retired conscionable implicit 60 specified strikes during his full 4 years successful office.

The US president has posted similarly boastful messages astir strikes successful Yemen, wherever his medication conducted a bombing run from March to May, accounting for the immense bulk of wide strikes during his 2nd term, arsenic good arsenic US strikes connected Iran’s atomic facilities, which Trump declared were “obliterated similar nobody’s ever seen before”, agelong earlier immoderate in-depth assessment had been made.

Raleigh, who is besides a prof of governmental geography and struggle astatine the University of Sussex, said the summation could perchance beryllium attributed to Trump’s pivot distant from the soft-power argumentation of Biden, which has included shearing down the US State Department and dismantling the US overseas assistance apparatus.

That could further beryllium viewed arsenic an effort by Trump to spot the US arsenic a “player successful a caller internationalised struggle environment”, wherever wide unit by authorities actors connected overseas ungraded has accrued steadily successful caller years, presently accounting for 30 percent of each convulsive events ACLED tracks globally.

“But I would accidental there’s inactive nary wide Trump doctrine, arsenic overmuch arsenic Vance wants to assertion that determination is,” Raleigh told Al Jazeera. “And astatine the moment, it’s looking a small spot similar ‘bomb archetypal and inquire questions later.'”

That attack has proven to person peculiarly deadly consequences, according to Emily Tripp, the manager of Airwars. She drew a parallel to Trump’s archetypal term, erstwhile helium besides surged aerial strikes, outpacing those of his predecessor, erstwhile President Barack Obama, who himself oversaw an enlargement of drone warfare abroad.

The show has tracked 224 reported civilian casualties successful Yemen from US strikes nether Trump successful 2025, astir totaling the 258 reported civilian casualties from US actions successful the state during the 23 years prior. The medication has besides utilized peculiarly almighty – and costly – munitions successful its strikes, which Airwars has assessed arsenic appearing to person been deployed against a broader acceptable of targets than nether Biden.

Two of the Trump administration’s strikes connected Yemen, 1 on Ras Isa Port and different connected a migrant detention centre successful Saada, person been deemed imaginable warfare crimes by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.

“That’s not typical, oregon needfully thing you’d expect successful a run whose remit, arsenic defined by Trump, Hegseth, and [US Central Command], is connected mostly economical targets,” Tripp told Al Jazeera.

“There’s truly nary crushed for determination to beryllium specified precocious levels of civilian harm,” she said.

Tripp added she was inactive waiting to measure however the Pentagon approaches civilian casualty investigations and transparency nether Trump’s 2nd term.

Questions implicit efficacy

It remains unclear whether the administration’s reliance connected swift and almighty subject strikes volition really beryllium effectual successful keeping the US troops retired of protracted conflict.

While a tenuous ceasefire continues to clasp with the Houthis, the results of the US bombing run “have been beauteous underwhelming”, the Crisis Group’s Hanna said, noting that fewer underlying conditions person changed.

The radical has continued to onslaught vessels successful the Red Sea and to motorboat missiles astatine Israel successful absorption to the warfare successful Gaza. An onslaught successful aboriginal July prompted State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce to pass the US “will proceed to instrumentality indispensable enactment to support state of navigation and commercialized shipping”.

The assemblage besides remains retired connected whether Trump’s strikes connected Iran’s atomic facilities volition pb to a diplomatic breakthrough connected Iran’s atomic programme, arsenic the White House has maintained. Little advancement has been made since a ceasefire was reached soon aft Tehran launched retaliatory strikes connected a US basal successful Qatar.

Crisis Group’s Hanna assessed that Trump has relied connected aerial strikes successful portion due to the fact that they person go somewhat “antiseptic” successful US society, with their toll “shielded from a batch of nationalist scrutiny”.

But, helium added: “There are limits successful presumption of what aerial powerfulness unsocial tin do…That’s conscionable the reality.”