Bosnia’s Republika Srpska votes for Dodik’s successor: What to expect

Republika Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Serb-majority entity, votes Sunday successful a drawback statesmanlike predetermination called aft electoral authorities stripped separatist Bosnian Serb person Milorad Dodik of the presidency successful August.

Dodik was removed aft helium was convicted for refusing to transportation retired decisions issued by Christian Schmidt, the planetary bid envoy who oversees implementation of the Dayton bid statement that ended the 1992–95 Bosnian War.

The tribunal besides handed him a one-year situation sentence – which helium avoided by posting bail – and banned him from participating successful authorities for six years. Bosnia’s apical tribunal upheld that ruling successful aboriginal November.

In October, the National Assembly of Republika Srpska appointed Ana Trisic-Babic arsenic an interim president until the Sunday election.

Here’s what we cognize astir the vote, and wherefore it matters.

When are the drawback Republika Srpska elections taking place?

According to Bosnia’s Central Election Commission (CIK), voting volition beryllium unfastened connected Sunday, November 23, betwixt 7am (06:00 GMT) and 7pm (18:00 GMT). More than 1.2 cardinal people, spanning the 3 main taste groups – Serbs, Bosniaks and Croats – are eligible to vote. Turnout successful erstwhile statesmanlike elections has typically ranged betwixt 50 percent and 55 percent.

Although Trisic-Babic was appointed arsenic an interim president, the instrumentality inactive requires caller elections wrong 90 days of a president’s removal.

The victor of Sunday’s predetermination volition service lone the remainder of Dodik’s term, little than a year, until adjacent October’s wide elections.

When volition the results beryllium announced?

Preliminary results are expected connected predetermination night, but the last authoritative ballot number by the Central Election Commission volition beryllium announced lone aft the assemblage besides validates each outcomes.

What is Republika Srpska?

Republika Srpska is 1 of 2 main governmental entities wrong Bosnia, on with the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina – each of which enjoys important autonomy. The 2 stock adjacent rights implicit a small, 3rd self-governing administrative portion wrong the country, known arsenic the Brcko District.

Republika Srpska was proclaimed by Bosnian Serb leaders successful 1992 astatine the commencement of the 1992–95 warfare and was formally established arsenic portion of Bosnia’s post-war law operation successful 1995 nether the Dayton bid agreement.

Republika Srpska covers astir 49 percent of Bosnia’s territory, portion the remaining 51 percent forms the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Republika Srpska has its ain government, parliament, judiciary and police, but not its ain army.

Today, it is overwhelmingly Serb-populated, with Serbs making up astir 82 percent of its residents, alongside smaller Bosniak and Croat minorities, according to the latest census, which was held much than a decennary agone successful 2013.

Its demographics changed drastically during and aft the war, and due to the fact that of the taste cleansing of non-Serb communities. Before the conflict, Bosniaks and Croats made up astir fractional of the colonisation successful the country that is present Republika Srpska; today, they relationship for little than 17 percent.

Its archetypal president, Radovan Karadzic, has been sentenced to beingness successful The Hague for the 1995 genocide against Bosniaks successful Srebrenica, present a municipality wrong Republika Srpska.

Why are the elections important?

The elections travel astatine a highly delicate clip for Bosnia. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Republika Srpska has intensified its rhetoric to secede from Bosnia, with Dodik – a adjacent state of Russian President Vladimir Putin – progressively calling for the entity to interruption away, perchance to articulation Serbia.

These elections volition find who replaces Dodik aft his removal from bureau and his agelong dominance implicit Republika Srpska’s politics. The ballot is besides a trial of however overmuch power helium tin inactive exert, contempt being banned from governmental activity.

Who are the candidates?

There are six candidates connected the ballot, 4 nominated by Republika Srpska’s governmental parties, and 2 moving arsenic independents.

The main contenders are Sinisa Karan of Dodik’s ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), who is straight backed by Dodik, and Branko Blanusa of the absorption Serb Democratic Party (SDS).

Karan is simply a longtime subordinate of Dodik’s interior ellipse and a erstwhile Republika Srpska interior minister. He serves arsenic curate for technological and technological improvement and higher acquisition successful the existent Republika Srpska government.

According to Radio Free Europe, helium was portion of a radical ‘tasked’ to draught an SNSD program for Republika Srpska to interruption distant from Bosnia.

Analysts accidental Dodik sees Karan arsenic an hold of his ain power. Dodik has appeared prominently astatine Karan’s rallies.

Blanusa, the SDS candidate, is simply a subordinate of the party’s Banja Luka City Committee and a prof astatine the Faculty of Electrical Engineering astatine the University of Banja Luka.

The SDS, present the main absorption enactment successful Republika Srpska, was primitively led by Karadzic. It is besides a Serb nationalist enactment and has agelong competed with Dodik’s SNSD for the aforesaid electorate.

While it is captious of Dodik’s benignant of governance and allegations of corruption, it broadly shares akin positions connected cardinal governmental issues, including relations with the superior Sarajevo and scepticism towards the planetary overseer of the bid agreement.

The different party-backed candidates are Nikola Lazarevic of the Ecological Party of Republika Srpska and Dragan Dokanovic of the Alliance for New Politics (SNP).

Two independents, Igor Gasevic and Slavko Dragicevic, are besides connected the ballot but person remained astir wholly extracurricular the nationalist eye.

Who is Milorad Dodik?

Milorad Dodik, 66, is the erstwhile president of Republika Srpska.

Backed by Western governments successful the precocious 1990s, helium became the entity’s premier curate successful 1998 and was seen arsenic a promising alternate to the hardline nationalist enactment of genocide convict Karadzic and the then-ruling SDS, which dominated the post-war period. Then-US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright described Dodik arsenic “a enactment of caller air”, and some the United States and the United Kingdom placed their hopes successful him arsenic a much mean aboriginal option.

He was among the archetypal leaders successful Republika Srpska to admit the Srebrenica genocide. In a 2007 interrogation with a Bosnian tv outlet, Dodik, the president of SNSD since its formation, said helium knew “perfectly good what took place” and that “there was a genocide successful Srebrenica”.

“That judgement was made by the tribunal successful The Hague, and that is an undeniable ineligible fact,” helium said.

He has served 3 presumption arsenic president of Republika Srpska, holding 2 consecutive mandates from 2010 to 2018 and winning again successful 2022. In 2018, helium was elected arsenic the Serb subordinate of Bosnia’s three-member presidency.

During this period, however, Dodik adopted a acold much nationalist stance, repeatedly calling for the entity’s secession, and denying the Srebrenica genocide – going backmost connected his ain earlier admissions.

In 2023, Dodik signed 2 arguable bills that, successful essence, said that decisions of the Dayton Agreement bid envoy and rulings of Bosnia’s law tribunal would not use to Republika Srpska. The bid envoy and the law tribunal blocked those bills.

In March 2025, the law tribunal issued apprehension warrants for Milorad Dodik and respective of his allies connected charges of undermining the law order. But a period later, members of the Republika Srpska constabulary blocked officers from the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) from entering the administrative centre of the Republika Srpska authorities to apprehension Dodik, further intensifying tensions with Sarajevo.

In August, Bosnia’s electoral authorities stripped Dodik of the presidency and banned him from participating successful politics. He, however, remains the president of the SNSD enactment and continues to beryllium its astir almighty figure.

A subordinate of the Special Anti-Terrorist Unit of the constabulary of Republika Srpska stands defender during the opening ceremonial of a rectory gathering successful Istocno Sarajevo, Bosnia, Thursday, April 24, 2025 [Armin Durgut/AP Photo]

Does the Republika Srpska governmental situation impact Bosnia arsenic a whole?

Yes. Bosnia arsenic a state relies connected a power-sharing strategy successful which the 2 entities are intimately linked. Republika Srpska’s situation against authorities institutions and the emergence of secessionist threats tin impact the stableness of the state connected the nationalist level.

The aboriginal predetermination besides strains Bosnia’s economy. The ballot is funded from the authorities budget, alternatively than the entity’s ain institutions, successful a state with one of the smallest economies successful Europe. Bosnia’s Central Election Commission has allocated much than six cardinal Bosnian marks (close to $4m) for the elections.

The UK government, 1 of the guarantors of  the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords, said astatine a United Nations Security Council gathering connected Bosnia successful October that holding statesmanlike elections successful the Republika Srpska would springiness “an accidental for enactment of their caller government,” insisting that “the law bid and regularisation of instrumentality successful Bosnia and Herzegovina indispensable beryllium upheld”.

“We promote a absorption connected constructive and cooperative politics, including betwixt Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 2 entities,” Jennifer MacNaughtan, the UK representative, said astatine the meeting.

In October, Russia, a beardown state of Republika Srpska, praised the transportation of powerfulness from Dodik to interim president Babic, but had besides said that the Office of the High Representative bid envoy (OHR) should beryllium “permanently closed”, echoing Dodik’s stance.

In speech with the media, the spokesperson of Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, said the Russian Federation “wholeheartedly supports” the conflict of the enactment of Republika Srpska against “eroding cardinal principles” of the Dayton bid treaty.

The US has not officially commented connected the elections, but the Department of the Treasury has precocious lifted sanctions against Dodik, his household members and his allies, including the SNDS campaigner Karan, for undermining the Dayton bid agreement. Bosnia’s Serb officials person suggested they were softly seeking a much cooperative narration with the US, portion inactive preserving their affable ties with Russia.

Republika Srpska’s strongest ally, Serbia, has taken a much cautious stance than usual. In an interrogation with the state-owned Radio Television of Serbia, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic – who has faced antigovernment protests that person shaken the state for astir a twelvemonth present – avoided commenting connected the elections directly. He said helium wished “all the best” to Republika Srpska and hoped everything would “pass peacefully”. He added that Serbia would ever beryllium determination to assistance with “infrastructure”.

What are the imaginable scenarios aft the election?

If SNSD’s Karan wins, the entity would apt stay nether Dodik’s influence. Speaking to Euronews Serbia, Karan said the ballot had been “forced” onto Republika Srpska by the bid envoy Schmidt and that a ballot for him is “a ballot for President Dodik”.

The ruling SNSD besides holds a beardown bulk successful the National Assembly of Republika Srpska.

Blanusa, from the absorption SDS party, told section BN tv that Republika Srpska, nether the existent leadership, has go “impoverished, displaced and isolated”, and has pledged to marque tackling corruption successful the entity his main goal.

Indeed, the entity faces heavy economical challenges. According to the Database of Economic Indicators of Republika Srpska, full gross home merchandise (GDP) for 2023 was astir 16 cardinal Bosnian marks (about $9bn), fractional of the GDP of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina – and so, a 3rd of the nationalist economy.

The predetermination verdict could besides connection clues to governmental trends up of adjacent year’s October elections, which could find who rules the entity for different 4 years.