Can Bangladesh’s Awami League survive election ban, ex-PM Hasina’s exile?

Dhaka, Bangladesh – As boatman Ripon Mridha washed his feet aboriginal successful the greeting aft a nighttime of sportfishing successful Bangladesh’s mighty Padma River, his eyes scanned the walls and shutters of the shops successful the neighbourhood market.

Until recently, the neighbourhood successful cardinal Bangladesh’s Rajbari territory was plastered with ample posters and banners, with the faces of section politicians belonging to erstwhile Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League enactment looming large.

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Today, those signs are gone, leaving small traces of a enactment that ruled implicit Bangladesh for 15 years earlier a student-led uprising successful 2024 toppled Hasina’s iron-fisted authorities and forced her into exile successful India, her adjacent ally.

After the uprising, Hasina’s Awami League was banned from each governmental activities, portion a peculiar tribunal, ironically founded by Hasina herself successful 2010 to effort governmental opponents, sentenced her to decease successful absentia for her relation successful the sidesplitting of much than 1,400 radical during the protests.

On February 12, the state of 170 cardinal radical is scheduled to ballot successful its first parliamentary election since Hasina’s ouster.

Mridha, a lifelong Awami League voter, said helium feels small enthusiasm implicit the predetermination aft the enactment helium supported had been banned. He mightiness inactive vote, but faces a dilemma implicit whom to enactment since the Awami League’s vessel awesome volition not look connected the ballot.

The boatman, astir 50 years of age, said that his household fears that if they don’t vote, they mightiness beryllium identified arsenic Awami League supporters successful a state wherever Hasina and her enactment contiguous gully wide choler for the decades of killings, forced disappearances, torture and governmental crackdowns that they oversaw.

Under Hasina’s rule, the Jamaat-e-Islami enactment and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) – the Awami League’s 2 biggest opponents – were systematically persecuted. The Jamaat was banned, immoderate of its leaders were executed, and galore others were imprisoned. Thousands of BNP leaders were arrested, including erstwhile Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, who died successful December. Her lad and existent BNP person Tarique Rahman lived successful exile successful London for 17 years earlier returning to Bangladesh successful December.

Widespread governmental unit continues to occupation Bangladesh’s preparations for the elections, with leaders from the BNP, Jamaat and different parties killed successful caller weeks. But now, similar their counterparts from different parties, communal supporters of the Awami League nary longer bask immunity either from the choler the actions of their leaders person triggered.

“If we don’t vote, we hazard being singled out,” Mridha told Al Jazeera. “So our household volition spell to the polling centre.”

Conversations with longtime Awami League voters successful areas wherever the enactment erstwhile dominated uncover a divided mood.

While galore accidental they volition inactive spell to polling centres, others accidental they whitethorn not ballot astatine all.

Like Solaiman Mia, a rickshaw puller successful Gopalganj, the Hasina family’s bastion and the hometown of her begetter and Bangladesh’s founder, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, whose sedate lies successful the territory southbound of Dhaka arsenic an enduring awesome of the Awami League’s almighty grip connected the region. Hasina won immense victories successful Gopalganj successful each predetermination since 1991.

Mia is unequivocal that helium and his household would not ballot this year. “An predetermination without the vessel connected the ballot is not an election,” helium told Al Jazeera, a sentiment shared by galore residents of Gopalganj.

‘Awami League volition return’

In cardinal Dhaka’s Gulistan country lies the Awami League’s caput bureau – present abandoned aft it was vandalised and acceptable connected occurrence during the uprising. Since then, the gathering has been utilized arsenic a structure by stateless radical and sections of it arsenic a nationalist toilet.

Outside the office, thoroughfare vendor Abdul Hamid says helium has not seen Awami League activists anyplace adjacent the country for months.

“You won’t find immoderate Awami League supporters here,” helium said. “Even if idiosyncratic is simply a supporter, they would ne'er admit it. The Awami League has faced crises before, but it has ne'er astir disappeared similar this.”

Nearby, different thoroughfare vendor, Sagor, is selling woollen scarves draped successful the symbols of the BNP and its erstwhile state and present rival, the Jamaat-e-Islami party.

“The scarves belonging to the parties are selling well,” helium said arsenic pedestrians surrounded him.

A vendor selling scarves with BNP and Jamaat enactment symbols successful Dhaka [Masum Billah/Al Jazeera]

Still, immoderate Awami League supporters are optimistic astir the party’s resurgence.

Arman, a erstwhile person of Bangladesh Chhatra League, the pupil helping of the Awami League, said the enactment whitethorn beryllium maintaining a strategical silence, but is acold excessively entrenched to vanish from Bangladesh’s politics.

“The Awami League volition return,” helium told Al Jazeera. “And erstwhile it does, it volition instrumentality with Sheikh Hasina.”

But Rezaul Karim Rony, a Dhaka-based governmental expert and exertion of Joban magazine, is not truthful sure. He thinks surviving the February predetermination volition beryllium hard for the Awami League.

“If an predetermination takes spot without the Awami League, its voters volition gradually spell done a signifier of reconciliation astatine the section level,” Rony told Al Jazeera. “They volition beryllium absorbed locally – aligning themselves with whichever influential forces oregon parties predominate their areas – and statesman rebuilding their mundane lives that way.”

As a result, Rony said, it volition beryllium hard for the Awami League to retrieve its enactment basal erstwhile the predetermination is over. He said portion a conception of the party’s supporters inactive sees nary aboriginal for the enactment without Hasina, a sizeable radical wrong it is frustrated by her authoritarian regularisation erstwhile she was successful power.

“With supporters divided, with oregon without Hasina, returning to its erstwhile governmental presumption is highly hard – astir intolerable – for the Awami League,” Rony said.

‘Feels similar a governmental wipeout’

Other analysts reason that a caller surge successful enactment for Jamaat-e-Islami could, paradoxically, connection a notation constituent for a imaginable aboriginal revival of the Awami League. The Jamaat supported Pakistan during Bangladesh’s warfare of independency successful 1971, a relation that its critics – including Hasina – person repeatedly utilized to situation its credibility.

The enactment was banned twice, and its apical leaders were hanged and jailed during Hasina’s rule. Still, it survived, and is present – according to polls – connected the cusp of its champion ever show successful the February elections.

“Jamaat’s existent level of activism, power and assertiveness – what mightiness adjacent beryllium described arsenic a amusement of dominance – tin paradoxically beryllium seen arsenic a benignant of blessing for the Awami League,” Anu Muhammad, a retired economics professor at Jahangirnagar University, told Al Jazeera.

Muhammad said the entreaty of the Awami League extends acold beyond its ceremonial governmental structure, making its full governmental erasure unlikely. “The Awami League is not conscionable its leadership,” helium said. “It is connected to cultural, societal and different forces.”

A vandalised and deserted Awami League bureau successful Rajbari, Bangladesh [Golam Mohiuddin Shohan/Al Jazeera]

A pre-election survey by the International Republican Institute, a United States deliberation vessel focused connected antiauthoritarian governance, suggested the Awami League inactive retains a enactment basal of astir 11 percent.

Yet, the enactment does not diagnostic successful the ongoing election campaign, and its leaders person alternatively been seen organising events from India, including a controversial address by Hasina – her archetypal since ouster – astatine a “Save ideology successful Bangladesh” lawsuit astatine New Delhi’s Foreign Correspondents Club.

“To overthrow the foreign-serving puppet authorities of this nationalist force astatine immoderate cost, the brave sons and daughters of Bangladesh indispensable support and reconstruct the Constitution written successful the humor of martyrs, reclaim our independence, safeguard our sovereignty, and revive our democracy,” Hasina said successful a prerecorded audio message.

A furious Dhaka said it was “surprised and shocked” that Indian authorities allowed specified an lawsuit to instrumentality place.

Back home, however, Hasina’s enactment is struggling to asseverate governmental relevance, raising questions astir its survival.

Michael Kugelman, elder chap for South Asia astatine the Atlantic Council, argued that, by strict antiauthoritarian standards, an predetermination successful Bangladesh without the Awami League cannot beryllium considered afloat credible, calling the ballot “an predetermination with an asterisk”.

At the aforesaid time, helium argued, the Awami League had – successful the eyes of galore Bangladeshis – forfeited its rights to beryllium treated arsenic a morganatic enactment due to the fact that of the repression that Hasina had overseen and its earlier efforts to tilt the electoral playing field. The 2014, 2018 and 2024 elections – which Hasina won with a landslide – were each wide seen arsenic manipulated, with absorption boycotts and crackdowns connected rivals.

Still, Kugelman said the quality of dynastic governmental parties successful South Asia is specified that they seldom die.

“Even though the Awami League is successful a atrocious place, it is fundamentally retired of the governmental representation indefinitely successful Bangladesh; 1 surely should not regularisation retired a imaginable aboriginal comeback. Political circumstances tin alteration precise quickly,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Kugelman compared the party’s existent situation with what its bitter rival, the BNP, suffered during Hasina’s authorities erstwhile the main absorption enactment struggled to equine a meaningful governmental oregon electoral situation – lone to re-emerge present arsenic the astir apt contender for power.

He said the Awami League is apt to follow a “waiting strategy”. As agelong arsenic Hasina remains politically active, she is apt to “want to enactment successful the game” and mightiness besides denote her US-based lad Sajeeb Wazed arsenic her dynastic successor.

“It could instrumentality time,” Kugelman said. “Given however authorities play retired successful this region, they tin beryllium rather volatile. If an opening emerges down the roadworthy and the Awami League is successful a amended presumption to run arsenic a viable governmental force, it could good travel back. But for now, it is fundamentally dormant successful the water.”

That is not a blessed portent for Mridha, the boatman successful Rajbari, for whom the uncertainty implicit his party’s aboriginal is profoundly unsettling.

“My begetter utilized to speech astir however the Awami League struggled aft Bangabandhu [as Hasina’s begetter is fondly called] was assassinated,” helium said, referring to Rahman’s assassination during a coup by the service successful 1975, which pushed the Awami League into its archetypal large crisis.

“But this twelvemonth feels similar a governmental wipeout.”