Can Barack Obama be prosecuted over ‘Russian interference’ intelligence?

US National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard launched a caller onslaught connected erstwhile President Barack Obama this week, alleging that helium conspired to undermine Trump’s 2016 statesmanlike triumph by utilizing mendacious quality purporting to amusement Russian interference successful Trump’s favour.

On Wednesday, Gabbard told a White House quality briefing that she had declassified grounds of a conspiracy betwixt Obama and elder officials successful his administration. Gabbard said she had referred Obama to the Department of Justice for imaginable transgression prosecution.

However, declassified documents released by Gabbard this week, including a September 2020 study led by House Republicans connected the quality committee, bash not look to implicate Obama successful immoderate evident way, experts say.

“There is nary grounds of transgression acts connected Obama’s portion oregon anyone successful his administration,” Barbara Ann Perry, who analyses US presidents astatine the Virginia-based Miller Center, told Al Jazeera.

Several investigations by Congress and the quality assemblage person antecedently recovered that Russia did interfere successful the 2016 election.

The papers merchandise and probe travel arsenic the White House faces increasing unit from wrong Trump’s MAGA basal to merchandise classified accusation astir the high-profile enactment offender and one-time Trump ally, Jeffrey Epstein.

“There is simply a nonstop correlation betwixt diversion from the Epstein files, which Trump and his MAGA followers person demanded to spot for years,” Perry said.

Here’s what we cognize astir the allegations Gabbard is making:

What has Gabbard accused Obama of?

Gabbard has declassified a 44-page study prepared by the House of Representatives quality committee successful September 2020 that she claims proves that Obama and elder officials successful his medication engineered a “treasonous conspiracy” to suggest that Russia had influenced the 2016 statesmanlike predetermination successful favour of Trump.

The report, which was led by House Republicans, reviewed however US quality had concluded that Moscow interfered successful the elections successful a January 2017 Intelligence Community appraisal that was published 2 months aft the elections.

“There is irrefutable grounds that details however President Obama and his nationalist information squad directed the instauration of an quality assemblage appraisal that they knew was false,” Gabbard said astatine the briefing, adding that the thought that Russia interfered successful the predetermination to beforehand Trump was a “contrived narrative”.

Obama’s medication “manufactured findings from shoddy sources … In doing so, they conspired to subvert the volition of the American people, who elected Donald Trump successful that predetermination successful November of 2016”, she said.

Gabbard added that she had referred the erstwhile president to the Justice Department for a imaginable transgression prosecution.

Previously, connected July 18, Gabbard released a abstracted batch of declassified accusation containing a trove of documents, including emails (PDF) from Obama medication officials successful the months starring up to the elections. In it, they concluded that “there is nary denotation of a Russian menace to straight manipulate the existent ballot number done cyber means.”

Gabbard said successful a connection that the Obama medication went up with investigating Russian interference aft Trump won the 2016 elections, contempt that archetypal decision and contempt quality agencies similar the CIA stating successful beforehand of the ballot that Russia could not impact the ballot count. Those efforts were made to “subvert the volition of the American people” and amounted to a “years-long coup” against Trump, she said.

President Trump, connected Tuesday, accused Obama and apical officials of his medication of treason. “It’s clip to spell aft people,” helium said.

From left, erstwhile President Bill Clinton, erstwhile Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, erstwhile President George W Bush, erstwhile First Lady Laura Bush and erstwhile President Barack Obama, get earlier the 60th Presidential Inauguration successful the Rotunda of the US Capitol successful Washington, connected Monday, January 20, 2025 [Chip Somodevilla/AP]

Are Tulsi’s claims correct?

Analysts accidental the study that Gabbard released connected Wednesday, arsenic good arsenic the documents declassified past week, bash not look to supply grounds that Russia did not interfere successful the elections to favour Trump, oregon that Obama ordered the probe to scope a pre-determined conclusion.

Responding to Gabbard’s claims that the Obama White House ordered an probe into the substance contempt US quality agencies repeatedly assessing that overseas adversaries could not motorboat cyber attacks connected the elections, Perry of the Miller Center said determination was a valid crushed for Obama’s delayed order.

“There was suspicion connected the portion of the White House that Russia was interfering with the election, but the Obama medication did not instrumentality nonstop enactment to beryllium its suspicion until aft the predetermination for fearfulness of being accused by Trump of interfering successful it connected Clinton’s behalf,” Perry said.

At the time, during the 2016 predetermination campaign, Trump had repeatedly predicted astatine rallies that helium mightiness suffer the ballot due to the fact that Democrats wanted to “steal the election”. That ambiance whitethorn person discouraged the Obama medication from doing thing until aft the vote, Perry added.

In addition, the documents Gabbard released from Obama officials bash not look to contradict the established conclusions of Russian interference, analysts say.

Obama officials did not allege that ballot counts had been manipulated, but alternatively that Russian hackers had launched covert integer operations aimed astatine sowing discord successful the US during the vote, including by leaking emails of apical Democrats, specified arsenic Clinton, and trying to power sentiment connected societal media utilizing “bots”.

The Senate Intelligence Committee study that Gabbard released, successful which she hoped to undermine the Obama-era investigations into Russian interference, affirmed that position, though it blamed Obama medication officials for concluding that Russia interfered specifically to favour Trump.

Overall, experts say, Gabbard’s claims are improbable to get far.

Heather Hurlburt, subordinate chap connected the Americas Programme astatine London-based deliberation vessel Chatham House, said: “A 2020 Senate probe – erstwhile Republicans controlled the Senate – corroborated the quality agencies’ findings astir tactics Russia utilized to effort to sway the 2016 statesmanlike election.

“Gabbard’s latest accusations don’t present immoderate caller information. Without immoderate new, independently corroborated facts, these allegations don’t look similar a good-faith effort to see the merits of the archetypal investigation.”

Former Special Counsel Robert Mueller, left, and erstwhile Deputy Special Counsel Aaron Zebley are sworn successful for grounds earlier the House Select Committee connected Intelligence proceeding connected Capitol Hill successful Washington, DC, July 24, 2019 [Jim Watson/AFP]

Will determination beryllium a transgression probe now?

On Wednesday, the Justice Department, nether Attorney General Pam Bondi, announced the instauration of a “strike force” that volition measure Gabbard’s claims and see imaginable adjacent ineligible steps.

In a statement, Bondi said the Justice Department would “investigate these troubling disclosures afloat and permission nary chromatic unturned to present justice”.

She did not springiness details astir what the adjacent steps mightiness be.

Obama, arsenic a erstwhile US president, enjoys civilian and transgression immunity for actions undertaken during his clip arsenic president, which are regarded arsenic “official”. This could correspond a stumbling artifact for immoderate prosecutions, analysts say.

Indeed, successful a landmark decision siding with Trump successful July 2024, the Supreme Court confirmed that presidents person implicit immunity erstwhile they transportation retired “official acts”. Trump, astatine the time, was being prosecuted for actions during his archetypal presidency, which, prosecutors said, amounted to an effort to power the 2020 predetermination results.

Perry of the Miller Center said Obama’s bid for an probe constituted an “official act”. The Justice Department could effort to reason that investigating Moscow’s interference successful the US elections was not a halfway statesmanlike duty, but that would apt beryllium a anemic assertion, she said.

Four pages of peculiar counsel Robert Mueller’s study connected the witnesser array successful the House Intelligence Committee proceeding country connected Capitol Hill, successful Washington, Thursday, April 18, 2019 [Cliff Owen/AP]

What did US quality agencies reason astir Russian predetermination interference?

Several quality reports concluded that Russia did effort to interfere successful the 2016 statesmanlike election, including investigations by 2 Justice Department peculiar counsels, a Republican-led House committee connected intelligence, which was precocious released, and the Senate quality committee. The substance is 1 of the astir extensively scrutinised successful US predetermination history. Russia, for its part, has denied the allegations.

Trump and his allies often notation to the investigations arsenic a “hoax” due to the fact that they besides attempted to analyse links betwixt Trump, his associates, and Russian operatives.

In January 2017, 2 months aft the election, US quality agencies initially concluded that Russia had been liable for cyberattacks connected the email accounts of apical Democrats, and for sowing discord connected societal media, utilizing bots and trolls. The CIA said that the Kremlin orchestrated and codenamed the cognition Project Lakhta.

FBI investigations besides focused connected idiosyncratic Trump officials, specified arsenic George Papadoulous, who was indicted for providing mendacious statements to the FBI regarding his relations with Russians.

Papadoulous was recovered to person known astir the Russian operation, but determination was nary grounds that helium had shared that accusation with the Trump campaign.

During Trump’s archetypal presidency, the Justice Department probed the behaviour of the quality agencies regarding the investigations and recovered that determination had been nary “political bias” involved.

The astir followed report was released by peculiar counsel Robert Mueller successful 2019. It concluded that the “Russian authorities interfered successful the 2016 predetermination successful a sweeping and systematic fashion” done societal media campaigns that favoured Trump, due to the fact that Moscow assessed that it would payment from a Trump presidency.

The operations sought to harm Clinton’s representation by hacking into email accounts of members of the Clinton run and leaking them to the public, the study stated. There was nary transgression indictment, however, due to the fact that Mueller concluded that determination was nary grounds that Trump’s run coordinated with Russian agents.

An earlier (PDF) study by the House of Representatives’ quality committee successful April 2018 determined that determination was nary collusion betwixt Trump’s run and Russian agents. Importantly, it did not contradict the facts of Russian interference, however, stating that an extended cognition utilizing societal media and state-owned media house, RT, had been deployed.

One report, known arsenic “the Steele Dossier“, compiled by counterintelligence specializer Christopher Steele, did allege adjacent links betwixt Trump and Russian operatives. That has since been debunked due to the fact that of anemic sourcing.

Anti-Brexit demonstrator Steve Bray protests adjacent Chequers, the authoritative state residence of the premier minister, adjacent Aylesbury successful Buckinghamshire, United Kingdom, July 17, 2022 [Peter Nicholls/Reuters]

Where other has Russia been accused of interfering successful elections?

• French elections successful 2017: Russian hackers targeted the run unit of then-independent campaigner Emmanuel Macron during the country’s April 2017 elections, according to authorities officials. Macron was moving against Marine Le Pen, who had promised to instrumentality France retired of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), and who was openly captious of sanctions against Russia. However, French cyber authorities said they had successfully fought disconnected the attacks.
• UK’s Brexit referendum successful 2016: There is nary conclusive grounds of Russian interference successful the 2016 Brexit referendum. While determination were rumours of imaginable interference utilizing bots and trolls connected societal media, the UK authorities “turned a unsighted eye” to the allegations, according to a 2020 study by the UK Parliament’s quality committee. The study besides concluded that determination was “credible open-source” grounds that Russia had interfered successful the 2014 Scottish referendum for independency and that Russia regularly tried to interfere successful UK politics.