Can China make Pakistan and the Taliban friends again?

Islamabad, Pakistan – With clasped hands and half-smiles, the overseas ministers of Pakistan, China and Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban posed arsenic they gathered successful Kabul connected Wednesday for a trilateral meeting.

It was the 2nd specified gathering betwixt Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar and their Afghan counterpart Amir Khan Muttaqi successful 12 weeks, aft they huddled unneurotic successful Beijing successful May.

That May gathering had led to the resumption of diplomatic ties betwixt Pakistan and Afghanistan aft a play of precocious hostility betwixt them. It besides acceptable the signifier for talks connected extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – a portion of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – into Afghanistan. The BRI is simply a web of ports, railroads and highways aimed astatine connecting Asia, Africa and Europe.

But arsenic China plans to grow its footprint successful the region, its attempts to forge bid betwixt Pakistan and Afghanistan bespeak its unease implicit the information of its interests adjacent on the existing CPEC, accidental analysts.

And portion Beijing is simply a captious spouse to some Islamabad and Kabul, experts judge its power implicit some remains untested, arsenic does China’s willingness to instrumentality connected the risks that it mightiness face if it seeks to bring Pakistan and the Taliban, erstwhile heavy allies but present embittered neighbours, backmost into a trusted embrace, they say.

The Sixth Trilateral Foreign Ministers Dialogue was held connected 20 August 2025 successful Kabul betwixt Deputy Prime Minister/Foreign Minister of Pakistan @MIshaqDar50, Foreign Minister of China @MFA_China, and Acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan @mfa_afghanistan, focusing connected political,… pic.twitter.com/i6n8I2oYgr

— Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Pakistan (@ForeignOfficePk) August 20, 2025

Shifting determination dynamics

The Beijing conclave took spot nether the shadiness of a four-day conflict betwixt Pakistan and India, but overmuch has changed since past connected the determination chessboard.

In caller months, Pakistan – agelong seen arsenic China’s closest state and reliant connected its northeastern neighbour for subject and economical enactment – has strengthened ties with the United States, Beijing’s main planetary rival.

China, for its part, has resumed engagement with India, Pakistan’s arch adversary and its cardinal rival for determination influence. India has besides continued to deepen ties with the Afghan Taliban, who person ruled Afghanistan since August 2021, pursuing the withdrawal of US forces.

Pakistan and Afghanistan, meanwhile, stay astatine odds. Islamabad was erstwhile the Taliban’s main patron. Now, it accuses the radical of providing a harmless haven to groups carrying retired cross-border violence, portion Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of quality rights violations by expelling Afghan refugees.

Amid this, China has positioned itself arsenic mediator, a relation driven mostly by the CPEC, the $62bn infrastructure task moving from the Pakistan-China borderline successful the northbound to Gwadar Port successful Balochistan.

A elder Pakistani diplomat with nonstop cognition of the caller Pakistani interactions with their Chinese and Afghan counterparts said China, arsenic a communal neighbour, places a premium connected neighbourhood diplomacy. For China, helium added, a peaceful neighbourhood is essential.

“China has attached precocious value to stableness and information to prosecute and grow its larger BRI project, truthful enlargement of westward connectivity and improvement tin lone win when, among others, these 2 countries are stabilised,” the authoritative told Al Jazeera connected information of anonymity.

“Development and connectivity cannot beryllium achieved successful the lack of security. Hence its efforts to bring the 2 neighbours together,” helium added.

CPEC nether strain

CPEC, launched successful 2015 nether then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, elder member of existent Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, has been hailed by galore successful Pakistan arsenic a “game-changer” for the state – a elephantine concern with the imaginable to make jobs and physique the economy.

But the task has slowed down successful caller years. Later this month, Prime Minister Sharif is expected to question to China to formally motorboat the 2nd signifier of the CPEC.

While governmental upheaval has hampered progress, China’s superior concerns stay the information of infrastructure and the information of its nationals, who person often been targeted.

Separatist groups successful Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest but poorest province, person agelong attacked Chinese unit and installations, accusing them of exploiting section resources. Attacks connected Chinese citizens person besides occurred successful Pakistan’s north.

Nearly 20,000 Chinese nationals presently unrecorded successful Pakistan, according to authorities figures. Since 2021, astatine slightest 20 person been killed successful attacks across the country.

Stella Hong Zhang, adjunct prof astatine Indiana University Bloomington successful the US, said China has agelong wanted to bring Afghanistan into the CPEC, to grow the project’s scope and to beforehand determination integration.

But Zhang, whose probe focuses connected China’s planetary improvement engagement, said it is unclear however convinced Beijing is astir investing successful either Afghanistan oregon Pakistan.

The trilateral gathering successful Kabul was the sixth iteration of the forum, with the past ceremonial gathering having taken spot successful May 2023 [Handout/Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs]

“China mightiness committedness investments, but adjacent though we are seeing actions connected China’s diplomacy front,” she told Al Jazeera, it is uncertain whether officials successful the 2 nations “will beryllium capable to person China’s state-owned enterprises and banks to put successful further projects successful some countries, fixed CPEC’s disappointing way grounds and the important risks successful some countries”.

For Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia information researcher astatine the University of Technology Sydney, betterment successful Pakistan’s interior information is paramount for China.

“This interest is what guides Beijing’s propulsion for betterment successful Pak-Afghan bilateral ties since the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is operating from the Afghan soil, portion Baloch militant groups person besides recovered abstraction successful Afghanistan,” helium told Al Jazeera.

“Through high-level trilateral talks, Beijing is aiming to constrictive Islamabad-Kabul differences and besides impulse some sides to code each other’s information concerns to avert a breakdown of ties,” helium added.

Pakistan Taliban, besides known arsenic TTP, founded successful 2007, is simply a radical which is ideologically aligned with the Taliban successful Afghanistan but operates independently some successful Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Taliban has repeatedly rejected allegations that it allows its ungraded to beryllium utilized for attacks against Pakistan and has consistently denied immoderate ties with the TTP.

Security challenges

Since the Taliban seized powerfulness successful August 2021, Pakistan has faced a crisp emergence successful violence, peculiarly successful Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, some bordering Afghanistan.

Islamabad has repeatedly alleged that Afghan ungraded is being utilized by equipped groups, particularly the TTP, to motorboat attacks crossed the porous frontier.

Data from the Islamabad-based Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) shows that successful the archetypal six months of 2025, 502 combatant attacks killed 737 people, including 284 information unit and 267 civilians.

Compared with the archetypal fractional of 2024, combatant attacks roseate 5 percent, deaths surged 121 percent, and injuries accrued 84 percent, according to PICSS.

China, too, has besides voiced interest implicit the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), accusing its fighters of utilizing Afghan territory to motorboat attacks against China.

Abdul Basit, a probe chap astatine the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies successful Singapore, said that since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, China has emerged arsenic South Asia’s main geopolitical player.

“Without addressing Pakistan’s Afghan-centric information concerns, BRI’s Pakistan component, CPEC, volition stay underutilised and underdeveloped. Hence, China has started the trilateral to assistance Afghanistan and Pakistan resoluteness their information issues nether a holistic argumentation which tries to isolate system and diplomacy from information trouble,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Faisal, of the University of Technology Sydney, added that China brings governmental weight, offering some diplomatic backing astatine multilateral organisations – peculiarly connected counterterrorism – and the committedness of economical inducements.

But helium was cautious astir Beijing’s semipermanent leverage. “Beyond underlining the value of stableness via enhanced information coordination betwixt Pakistan and Afghanistan, the outcomes of China’s efforts person been limited, partially owed to Beijing’s ain information anxieties,” helium said.

The elder Pakistani diplomat said China’s BRI and related projects person brought it leverage successful Southeast Asia and Central Asia, and expressed optimism that Beijing could bring astir alteration betwixt Pakistan and Afghanistan “armed with the political, diplomatic, economical and fiscal tools”, adjacent if results person truthful acold been limited.

But volition China enactment arsenic mediator and guarantor betwixt Pakistan and Afghanistan? The diplomat was sceptical.

“As for guarantorship, I’m not definite whether China is consenting oregon keen to bash so. It surely tin play that relation due to the fact that of a precocious grade of spot it enjoys, but whether it would bash truthful oregon not remains to beryllium seen,” helium said.