Can India switch from Russian to Venezuelan oil, as Trump wants?

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New Delhi, India – When US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with India connected Monday this week, helium declared that New Delhi would pivot distant from Russian vigor arsenic portion of the agreement.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump said, had promised to halt buying Russian oil, and alternatively bargain crude from the United States and from Venezuela, whose president, Nicolas Maduro, was abducted by US peculiar forces successful aboriginal January. Since then, the US has efficaciously taken power of Venezuela’s mammoth lipid industry.

In return, Trump dialled down commercialized tariffs connected Indian goods from an wide 50 percent to conscionable 18 percent. Half of that 50 percent tariff was levied past twelvemonth arsenic punishment for India buying Russian oil, which the White House maintains is financing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s warfare successful Ukraine.

But since Monday, India has not publically confirmed that it has committed to either ceasing its acquisition of Russian lipid oregon embracing Venezuelan crude, analysts note. Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson, told reporters connected Tuesday that Russia had received nary denotation of this from India, either.

And switching from Russian to Venezuelan lipid volition beryllium acold from straightforward. A cocktail of different factors – shocks to the vigor market, costs, geography, and the characteristics of antithetic kinds of lipid – volition complicate New Delhi’s decisions astir its sourcing of oil, they say.

So, tin India truly dump Russian oil? And tin Venezuelan crude regenerate it?

Donald Trump and his advisors denote an onslaught connected Venezuela

What is Trump’s plan?

Trump has been pressuring India to halt buying Russian lipid for months. After Russia invaded Ukraine successful 2022, the US and European Union placed an lipid terms headdress connected Russian crude successful a bid to bounds Russia’s quality to concern the war.

As a result, different countries including India began buying ample quantities of inexpensive Russian oil. India, which earlier the warfare sourced lone 2.5 percent of its lipid from Russia, became the second-largest user of Russian lipid aft China. It presently sources astir 30 percent of its lipid from Russia.

Last year, Trump doubled commercialized tariffs connected Indian goods from 25 percent to 50 percent arsenic punishment for this. Later successful the year, Trump besides imposed sanctions connected Russia’s 2 biggest lipid companies – and threatened secondary sanctions against countries and entities that commercialized with these firms.

Since the abduction of Maduro by US forces successful aboriginal January, Trump has efficaciously taken implicit the Venezuelan lipid sector, controlling income currency flows.

Venezuela besides has the largest proven lipid reserves successful the world, estimated astatine 303 cardinal barrels, much than 5 times larger than those of the US, the world’s largest lipid producer.

But portion getting India to bargain Venezuelan lipid makes consciousness from the US’s perspective, analysts accidental this could beryllium operationally messy.

How overmuch lipid does India import from Russia?

India presently imports astir 1.1 cardinal barrels per time (bpd) of Russian crude, according to analytics institution Kpler. Under Trump’s mounting pressure, that is little than the mean 1.21 cardinal bpd successful December 2025 and much than 2 cardinal bpd successful mid-2025.

One tube is equivalent to 159 litres (42 gallons) of crude oil. Once refined, a tube typically produces astir 73 litres (19 gallons) of petrol for a car. Oil is besides refined to nutrient a wide assortment of products, from pitchy substance to household items including plastics and adjacent lotions.

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi greet each different earlier their gathering successful New Delhi, India, connected Dec. 6, 2021. (AP Photo/Manish Swarup, File)

Has India stopped Russian lipid purchases?

India has reduced the magnitude of lipid it buys from Russia implicit the past year, but it has not stopped buying it altogether.

Under expanding unit from Trump, past August, Indian officials called retired the “hypocrisy” of the US and EU pressuring New Delhi to backmost disconnected from Russian crude.

“In fact, India began importing from Russia due to the fact that accepted supplies were diverted to Europe aft the outbreak of the conflict,” Randhir Jaiswal, India’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said then. He added that India’s determination to import Russian lipid was “meant to guarantee predictable and affordable vigor costs to the Indian consumer”.

Despite this, Indian refiners, presently the second-largest radical of buyers of Russian lipid aft China, are reportedly winding up their purchases aft clearing existent scheduled orders.

Major refiners similar Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL), and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL) halted purchasing from Russia pursuing the US sanctions against Russian lipid producers past year.

Other players similar Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation, and Reliance Industries volition soon halt their purchases.

What happens if India abruptly stops buying Russian oil?

Even if India wanted to halt importing Russian lipid altogether, analysts reason it would beryllium highly costly to bash so.

In September past year, India’s lipid and petroleum minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, told reporters that it would besides sharply propulsion up vigor prices and substance inflation. “The satellite volition look superior consequences if the supplies are disrupted. The satellite can’t spend to support Russia disconnected the lipid market,” Puri said.

Analysts thin to agree. “A implicit cessation of Indian purchases of Russian lipid would beryllium a large disruption. An contiguous halt would spike planetary prices and endanger India’s economical growth,” said George Voloshin, an autarkic vigor expert based successful Paris.

Russian lipid would apt beryllium diverted much heavy towards China and into “shadow” fleets of tankers that present sanctioned lipid secretly by flying mendacious flags and switching disconnected determination equipment, Voloshin told Al Jazeera. “Mainstream tanker request would displacement toward the Atlantic Basin, astir apt expanding planetary freight rates arsenic a result,” helium noted.

Sumit Pokharna, vice president astatine Kotak Securities, noted that Indian refineries person reported robust margins successful the past 2 years, majorly benefitting from the discounted Russian crude.

“If they determination to higher-costing, similar the US oregon Venezuela, past earthy worldly outgo would increase, and that would compression their margins,” helium told Al Jazeera. “If it goes beyond control, they whitethorn person to walk the excess onto consumers.”

Can India halt buying Russian lipid altogether?

It whitethorn not beryllium capable to. One of India’s 2 backstage refiners, Nayara Energy, is majority-Russian-owned and nether dense Western sanctions. The Russian vigor steadfast Rosneft holds a 49.13 percent involvement successful the company, which operates a 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery successful India’s Gujarat, PM Modi’s location state.

Nayara is the second-largest importer of Russian crude, buying astir 471,000 barrels per time successful January this year, accounting for astir 40 percent of Russian supplies to India.

Its works has relied solely connected Russian crude since European Union sanctions were imposed connected the institution past July.

Nayara is not readying to load Russian lipid successful April arsenic it shuts its refinery for much than a period for attraction from April 10, according to Reuters.

Pokharna said the aboriginal of Nayara hangs successful the balance, with the US improbable to assistance India an overt exemption for the Russia-backed institution to import crude.

Can India power to Venezuelan oil?

India has been a large user of Venezuelan lipid successful the past. At its peak, successful 2019, India imported $7.2bn of oil, accounting for conscionable nether 7 percent of full imports. That stopped aft the US slapped sanctions connected Venezuelan oil, but immoderate officials of the government-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation are inactive stationed successful the Latin American country.

Now, large Indian refiners person said they are unfastened to receiving Venezuelan lipid again, but lone if it is simply a viable option.

For 1 thing, Venezuela is astir doubly arsenic acold from India arsenic Russia and 5 times further than the Middle East, meaning overmuch higher freight costs.

Venezuelan lipid is much costly arsenic well. “Russian Urals [a medium-heavy crude blend] has been trading astatine a wide-ranging discount of astir $10-20 per tube to Brent, portion Venezuelan Merey presently offers a smaller discount of astir $5-8 per barrel,” Voloshin told Al Jazeera.

“Importing from Venezuela and forgoing the Russian discount would beryllium a costly matter for India,” said Pokharna. “From proscription outgo to forgoing discounts, it could outgo India $6-8 much per tube – and that is simply a immense summation successful the importing bill.”

Overall, a implicit pivot distant from Russia could rise India’s import measure by $9bn to $11bn – an magnitude astir adjacent to India’s national wellness fund – per year, according to Kpler.

“Venezuelan crude indispensable beryllium discounted by astatine slightest $10 to $12 per tube to beryllium competitive,” argued Voloshin. “This deeper discount is indispensable to offset the overmuch higher freight costs, accrued security premiums for the longer Atlantic voyage, and the somewhat higher operational expenses required to process Venezuela’s extra-heavy high-sulfur crude.”

Without deeper discounts, the longer travel and analyzable handling marque Venezuelan lipid much costly connected a delivered basis, helium added.

Another large contented is that galore Indian refiners simply bash not person the facilities to process precise dense Venezuelan oil.

Venezuelan crude is simply a heavy, sour oil, heavy and viscous similar molasses, with a precocious sulphur contented requiring complex, specialised refineries to process it into fuel. Only a tiny fig of Indian refineries are equipped to grip it.

“[Venezuelan oil’s heaviness] makes it an enactment lone for analyzable refineries, leaving retired older and smaller refineries,” Pokharna told Al Jazeera. “The displacement is operationally hard and would necessitate blending with much costly airy crudes.”

Then determination is the question of availability. Today, Venezuela produces hardly a cardinal barrels per time erstwhile pushed to its limit. Even if each accumulation was sent to India, it would not lucifer the full Russian lipid import.

Where other could India bargain oil?

India’s Minister Puri has said that New Delhi is looking to diversify sourcing options from astir 40 countries.

As India has reduced Russian imports, it has accrued them from Middle Eastern nations and different countries successful the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Now, portion Russia accounts for astir 27 percent stock successful India’s lipid imports, OPEC nations, led by Iraq and Saudi Arabia, lend 53 percent.

Reeling from Trump’s commercialized war, India has besides accrued purchases of US oil. American crude imports to India roseate by 92 percent from April to November successful 2025 to astir 13 cardinal tons, compared to 7.1 cardinal successful the aforesaid play successful 2024.

However, India would beryllium competing for these supplies with the European Union, which has pledged to walk $750bn by 2028 connected US vigor and atomic products.

Meanwhile, for Venezuela to instrumentality to higher production, Caracas needs governmental stability, changes successful overseas concern and lipid laws, and to wide debts. That volition instrumentality time, experts say.