Can Pakistan-Afghanistan peace talks survive Islamabad, Delhi blasts?

Islamabad, Pakistan – Less than 2 hours aft a suicide blast astatine the entranceway of the territory tribunal successful Pakistan’s superior Islamabad connected Tuesday, Khawaja Asif, the country’s defence minister, called the onslaught a “wake-up call” and “a warfare for each of Pakistan”.

“The rulers of Kabul tin halt coercion successful Pakistan, but bringing this warfare each the mode to Islamabad is simply a connection from Kabul, to which, praise beryllium to God, Pakistan has the afloat spot to respond,” helium wrote connected his X account.

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After a week of deadly warring connected their borderline successful October, Pakistan and Afghanistan had signed a ceasefire statement successful Doha, with Asif and his Afghan counterpart Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob inking the pact.

But that was followed by two unsuccessful rounds of talks successful Istanbul aimed astatine cementing the ceasefire and turning it into a longer-term pathway for bid betwixt the neighbours.

Now, adjacent arsenic a Turkish delegation is owed to get successful Pakistan aboriginal this week to effort to salvage those talks betwixt Islamabad and Kabul, Tuesday’s onslaught threatens to termination the already fragile prospects of immoderate breakthrough, adjacent though the Taliban person condemned the Islamabad blast.

“I should marque this wide astir Afghanistan,” Asif said, speaking to a section quality transmission connected Tuesday. “All their wars person been based connected insurgency. To antagonistic that, we indispensable trust connected accepted war, and Pakistan has a large army.”

Historical ties and caller ruptures

Pakistan agelong enjoyed adjacent ties with the Afghan Taliban, and galore Pakistanis welcomed the group’s instrumentality to powerfulness successful August 2021.

But relations person soured, mostly implicit Islamabad’s accusations that Kabul has provided sanctuary to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The Afghan Taliban cull Pakistan’s accusations.

An equipped radical that emerged successful 2007, the TTP has waged a sustained run against Pakistan and is often described arsenic the ideological duplicate of the Afghan Taliban.

Besides the TTP, Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of sheltering the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the section ISIL/ISIS affiliate, known arsenic the ISKP – adjacent though the ISKP is simply a sworn force of the Afghan Taliban.

The past 2 years person seen a crisp emergence successful unit wrong Pakistan. Most attacks person occurred successful the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, some of which borderline Afghanistan.

The assaults person disproportionately targeted instrumentality enforcement personnel. More than 2,500 radical were killed successful equipped attacks successful Pakistan successful 2024, 1 of the country’s deadliest years successful astir a decade, and 2025 appears connected way to transcend that toll.

Aside from the termination blast successful Islamabad, a large cognition successful Wana, the administrative centre of the tribal territory South Waziristan, helped avert a perchance catastrophic onslaught earlier this week. A two-day subject cognition rescued much than 500 students, teachers and staff, concluding connected Tuesday night.

‘Full-scale warfare unlikely’

Despite the heightened rhetoric and violence, analysts accidental the chances of a full-scale accepted warfare betwixt Pakistan and Afghanistan stay “very slim”.

“Opting for a accepted warfare against Afghanistan would harm the affirmative representation Pakistan has cultivated implicit the past fewer months,” Fahad Nabeel, caput of Islamabad-based Geopolitical Insights, told Al Jazeera, referring to Islamabad’s increasing relationship with the medication of US President Donald Trump, and Pakistan’s communicative that it is simply a unfortunate of unit from its neighbours – India and Afghanistan – alternatively than a trigger-happy initiator of conflicts.

Iftikhar Firdous, a information expert who besides co-founded the Khorasan Diary – a information portal that tracks determination information developments – besides agreed.

The accomplishment of a Turkish delegation, scheduled for aboriginal this week, Firdous said, suggests that Afghanistan and Pakistan mightiness beryllium consenting to de-escalate.

He pointed to the Taliban’s condemnation of the Islamabad onslaught arsenic grounds of “their volition that they don’t privation this [peace talks] to illness entirely”.

In a connection connected Tuesday evening, Abul Qahar Balkhi, the spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry successful Afghanistan, said that Kabul “expresses its heavy sorrow and condemnation” regarding the detonation successful Islamabad and the onslaught successful Wana.

Remarks speechmaking attacks successful Islamabad and Wana pic.twitter.com/OWR5pCrCnk

— Abdul Qahar Balkhi (@QaharBalkhi) November 11, 2025

Delhi blast and determination realignments

But the termination onslaught successful Islamabad wasn’t the lone deadly detonation successful South Asia this week. A car blast successful New Delhi connected Monday killed astatine slightest 13 people.

Indian investigators person not publically blamed immoderate entity oregon state, and accidental inquiries are ongoing, but person invoked the country’s “anti-terror” instrumentality and made a bid of arrests.

This is the second large attack connected Indian ungraded this year, pursuing a deadly incidental successful Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, successful April that led to a four-day subject standoff with Pakistan.

Investigators analyse the tract of Monday’s car detonation adjacent the historical Red Fort, successful New Delhi, India, Tuesday, November 11, 2025 [AP Photo]

The Pahalgam assault, which near much than 2 twelve civilians dead, was blamed by Indian authorities connected an allegedly Pakistan-backed group.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has since warned that immoderate further attacks connected Indian ungraded would beryllium treated arsenic attacks by Pakistan.

While Pakistan’s narration with Afghanistan has deteriorated this year, India, which historically treated the Taliban arsenic a Pakistani proxy and avoided ceremonial contact, has strengthened diplomatic and strategical ties with Kabul, peculiarly successful 2025.

Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi made his maiden sojourn to New Delhi successful October, which coincided with an outbreak of cross-border warring betwixt Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has accused India of supporting equipped groups targeting Pakistan and sheltering them successful Afghanistan.

After the Islamabad tribunal blast connected Tuesday, Sharif blamed India for some the Islamabad and Wana incidents without presenting evidence.

“Both attacks are the worst examples of Indian authorities coercion successful the region. It is clip for the satellite to condemn specified nefarious conspiracies of India,” helium said.

India “unequivocally” rejected the allegations, calling them “baseless and unfounded” and accusing Pakistan’s enactment of delirium.

Is a wider warfare looming?

Firdous, who divides his clip betwixt Islamabad and Peshawar, said Pakistan has consistently framed the TTP and different groups arsenic proxies influenced by India seeking to destabilise its occidental neighbour.

“I would not accidental that Pakistan blamed India straight arsenic such, but they conscionable reiterated its narrative. They person been trying to archer the satellite that it is Pakistan, not India, which is the unfortunate of terrorism, and that the Afghan Taliban are present becoming Indian proxies,” helium said.

With tensions simmering successful some Islamabad and Kabul and assertive rhetoric being deployed by elder officials, the question persists: Is an all-out warfare looming?

Firdous does not judge a accepted warfare is imminent, but warns of a realignment successful which Afghanistan, erstwhile again, becomes “central to planetary powerfulness games”.

Diplomacy inactive has a role, Firdous stressed, saying that mediators specified arsenic Turkiye and Qatar are urging restraint.

Nabeel said that periodic aerial strikes wrong Afghanistan stay a plausible subject enactment for Islamabad.

“However, Pakistan volition proceed to springiness diplomacy a accidental to show that it has exhausted each imaginable options,” helium said, earlier it resorts to subject strikes.