Can Syria be unified?

In caller days, leaked recordings and documents person provided the unsmooth outline of a conspiracy to motorboat an insurgency successful the Alawite-dominated coastal portion of Syria. Behind the program are a fig of high-level officials of the erstwhile authorities of Bashar al-Assad surviving successful exile. The leaks uncover the recruitment of fighters wrong the Alawite community, the question and retention of weapons, and the transportation of payments to their families.

The revelations travel months aft an insurrection staged successful the coastal portion successful March led to the deaths of much than 1,000 people, including civilians, authorities troops and Alawite fighters.

Similar unit erupted again successful July successful Suwayda, the Druze stronghold successful confederate Syria wherever respective 100 Druze civilians were killed arsenic authorities forces tried – unsuccessfully – to reconstruct bid aft clashes betwixt Sunni tribes and Druze militias.

There person besides been sporadic clashes betwixt the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and authorities forces contempt a March 10 statement to integrate the erstwhile into the nationalist army.

Concerns are present increasing that minority-dominated regions whitethorn beryllium carved out, undermining the constitution of a beardown Syrian authorities oregon adjacent violating the territorial integrity of the country. Such a development, however, is not inevitable.

The Alawite challenge

While the leaked recordings and documents amusement that al-Assad authorities remnants person not accepted their destiny and are readying a comeback successful immoderate form, they are acold from being successful. Most Alawites, profoundly shaken by what they presumption arsenic abandonment and betrayal by the al-Assad family, look to person resigned themselves to surviving nether a caller authorization and are trying to accommodate to this reality.

While a tiny fig of die-hard figures whitethorn inactive harbour fantasies of a instrumentality to power, perchance done the instauration of a coastal enclave, specified ambitions stay politically detached from the broader Alawite community.

What shapes Alawite attitudes contiguous are economical deprivation and carnal insecurity, not aspirations for secession oregon restoration of the erstwhile regime.

Last month, the effect to calls for protests by Ghazal Ghazal, caput of the alleged Islamic Alawite Council successful Syria and the Diaspora, reflected accumulated grievances alternatively than realistic governmental projects.

The dissolution of authorities institutions, peculiarly the service and information services, has plunged hundreds of thousands of families into poverty. Even pensioners person gone unpaid for much than a year.

Should unit re-emerge among Alawites, it would beryllium driven by poorness and desperation alternatively than ideological oregon governmental ambition. This concern indispensable beryllium addressed earlier it erupts into a afloat hunger mutiny.

The lack of transitional justness further aggravates tensions. It encourages victims of the erstwhile authorities to question revenge extracurricular ineligible frameworks portion corporate blasted directed astatine Alawites has led to predominant revenge killings successful Alawite-dominated areas.  Many Alawites present impulse the authorities to people a wide database of erstwhile authorities officials liable for large crimes, some to individualise accountability and to assistance the load of corporate guilt imposed connected their community.

Druze and Kurdish resistance

The concern is much analyzable successful the southwest portion of Suwayda, wherever the section Druze assemblage has categorically refused to let authorities forces to participate their territory. Hikmat al-Hijri, a salient Druze spiritual person with known ties to Israel, has been suspicious of the caller government, and his presumption hardened aft the March massacres successful the coastal portion of Syria. Over the summer, helium was elevated to the presumption of the sole governmental authorization of the Druze community.

Suwayda has go a de facto autonomous portion aft the nonaccomplishment of authorities forces backed by Sunni tribal fighters to enforce power successful July. Al-Hijri openly appealed to Israel, whose involution forced Damascus to retreat.

Since then, helium has overseen the instauration of a alleged National Guard, led by erstwhile authorities officers and financed and equipped by Israel, portion openly advocating for independence.

In the northeast, Damascus besides faces a formidable challenge. The SDF has refused to afloat instrumentality the March 10 statement and relinquish the governmental and subject gains it has consolidated implicit the past decade.

The illness of the latest circular of talks to instrumentality the agreement, held successful Damascus connected Sunday, sparked tense warring successful and astir Kurdish-dominated neighbourhoods of Aleppo, threatening to plunge the state into yet different civilian warfare – this clip on taste faultlines.

Backed by the United States and enjoying bully relations with Israel, the SDF commands a unit of astir 60,000 fighters and runs an autonomous civilian medication that governs astir one-third of the country, including a important magnitude of Syria’s earthy resources. In effect, the SDF aspires to a presumption resembling that of the Kurdistan Regional Government successful Iraq.

Maintaining unity

Dark predictions that Syria would gaffe backmost into a civilian warfare person failed to materialise. However, the existent concern inactive poses immense challenges.

Lacking decisive US backing portion simultaneously fearing Israeli involution and coordinated unrest some on the seashore and successful Suwayda, Damascus possesses small credible leverage to afloat unify the state successful the adjacent term.

As minorities deficiency the capableness to situation the caller authorities and Damascus lacks the powerfulness to subjugate them, Syria risks sliding into a prolonged deadlock – 1 that whitethorn yet solidify into de facto partition.

Israel’s caller designation of Somaliland arsenic a breakaway entity has reinforced fears that it whitethorn employment akin tactics successful Syria, aiming to weaken the authorities by promoting fragmentation on sectarian lines.

However, determination are besides different outer powers that person vested interests successful a unchangeable and agreed Syria. Fearing a revival of ISIL (ISIS) and the instrumentality of Iranian influence, the US is pressuring some the SDF and the authorities successful Damascus to instrumentality the March 10 agreement. Turkiye is besides applying unit connected the SDF to soften its presumption and hold to the presumption of integration. Ankara has threatened to usage subject unit to abort immoderate effort by Kurdish forces to interruption distant from Syria.

Aiming to facilitate the instrumentality of Syrian refugees, galore European countries, including Germany and the United Kingdom, person besides enactment their value down efforts to stabilise Syria. The caller joint UK-French onslaught against ISIL targets successful Syria pursuing a question of attacks by the US successful December further demonstrates Paris’s and London’s involvement successful ensuring stableness and security.

Yet, the authorities of President Ahmed al-Sharaa cannot trust connected outer enactment unsocial to support Syria’s unity and territorial integrity. Initiating an inclusive governmental process, forming a unity authorities and convening a nationalist dialog league to draught a caller constitution with wide information from Syria’s political, taste and sectarian components tin assistance triumph much enactment successful Syria’s troubled regions.

The initiation of a transnational justness way on with nationalist reconciliation would besides assistance heal the wounds of the past 14 years. Some conciliatory gestures towards minorities connected the seashore and successful Suwayda and the northeast would besides help. Yet each these measures volition person small interaction if they are not accompanied by the close economical policies particularly designed to code dire poorness and staggering unemployment.

Taken together, these policies would surely assistance Damascus abort Israel’s wicked plans for Syria and support unity.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.