China, India watch as Myanmar rebels advance on strategic western frontier

Rakhine State stands astatine a pivotal infinitesimal arsenic the Arakan Army (AA) edges closer to seizing power of Myanmar’s strategical occidental frontier region, a displacement successful powerfulness that could redefine some the country’s civilian warfare and determination geopolitics.

While Myanmar’s subject authorities has clawed backmost territory elsewhere successful the country, the AA present controls 14 of 17 townships successful Rakhine, which is situated connected the Bay of Bengal successful the country’s westbound and shares a borderline with Bangladesh.

Flush from victories against Myanmar’s subject rulers, the rebel radical has pledged to seizure the remainder of Rakhine State, including the superior Sittwe, arsenic good arsenic a cardinal Indian larboard project, and Kyaukphyu, location to lipid and state pipelines and a deep-sea larboard cardinal to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Analysts accidental the model is unfastened for a decisive violative by the rebel group.

But the AA’s combat against Myanmar’s subject authorities for self-determination unfolds amid a deepening humanitarian situation and increasing reports of superior abuses by the equipped radical against Muslim-majority Rohingya successful Rakhine.

The Myanmar military’s blockade of supplies to Rakhine – historically known arsenic Arakan – has worsened a situation successful which the United Nations estimates much than 2 cardinal radical look the hazard of starvation. Earlier this month, the World Food Programme warned that 57 percent of families successful cardinal Rakhine cannot conscionable basal nutrient needs – up from 33 percent successful December.

Thousands of civilians are hemmed successful the encircled Sittwe, which is present accessible lone by oversea and air.

Residents picture skyrocketing prices – pork that erstwhile outgo $2 present exceeds $13. Local media person reported connected hopeless radical taking their ain lives, families turning to begging, enactment enactment increasing, and daytime thefts arsenic instrumentality and bid collapses.

One nonmigratory who precocious near by level told of the increasing information from transgression successful Sittwe.

“They’re similar gangsters breaking into homes successful wide daylight. They adjacent instrumentality the furniture,” helium said.

Inside Sittwe, a root who asked for anonymity told Al Jazeera that the Arakan Liberation Army, an equipped radical linked to the military, monitors conversations among section radical portion troops raid homes and cheque residents for tattoos arsenic signs of AA support.

“The concern is unpredictable,” the root said.

“We can’t conjecture what volition hap next.”

A typical of the United League of Arakan (ULA), the AA’s governmental wing, described Sittwe arsenic “a stark example” of subject rule, saying the regime’s leaders person “treated Arakan arsenic occupied territory” for decades.

Rising civilian toll

As the AA advances crossed Rakhine State, the subject authorities has turned to aerial strikes – a maneuver utilized nationwide since the generals seized powerfulness successful 2021.

In Rakhine, the ULA says aerial raids killed 402 civilians betwixt precocious 2023 and mid-2025, including 96 children. Another 26 civilians died this twelvemonth from artillery, landmines oregon extrajudicial killings, it said.

Air strikes connected civilians “cannot nutrient tangible subject outcomes”, a ULA typical said, describing specified tactics arsenic “terrorism” successful a state wherever much than 80,000 radical are estimated to person been killed successful warring since the 2021 coup.

Amid the grinding conflict, some the AA and Myanmar’s subject person besides implemented conscription to bolster their forces.

The AA has drafted men aged 18 to 45 and women aged 18 to 25 since May, calling its run a “war of nationalist liberation”, portion the subject has added an estimated 70,000 men to its ranks implicit its 16-month subject draught drive.

Rakhine has besides been scarred by taste violence, astir brutally during the military’s 2017 crackdown that drove much than 730,000 Rohingya into Bangladesh – atrocities from that clip which are present earlier the International Court of Justice successful a lawsuit of suspected genocide.

More than a cardinal Rohingya stay successful exile camps on the Myanmar-Bangladesh border, with the UN reporting 150,000 caller arrivals implicit the past 18 months.

Reports impeach the AA of abuses against Rohingya civilians that stay successful Rakhine, including an alleged massacre of 600 radical past twelvemonth – allegations the AA denies, claiming images of quality remains were really authorities soldiers killed successful battle.

According to the rebels’ governmental wing, the ULA, “Muslim residents” successful its areas of power successful Rakhine “are experiencing amended lives compared to immoderate different play successful caller history”.

The ULA, similar the subject government, avoids the word “Rohingya” successful an effort to connote the assemblage is not indigenous to Rakhine.

To further confuse an already analyzable situation, the subject has equipped members of the Rohingya assemblage to combat the AA, a melodramatic reversal aft decades of persecution of their communities by Myanmar’s equipped forces.

The International Crisis Group (ICG) deliberation vessel besides warns that Rohingya equipped groups are utilizing spiritual connection to mobilise refugees successful the camps successful Bangladesh against the AA.

But “a Rohingya insurgency against the Arakan Army is improbable to succeed”, the ICG reports, adding that it could besides heighten anti-Rohingya sentiment successful Myanmar and harm prospects for the repatriation of refugees from Bangladesh to homes they fled wrong Rakhine.

Tensions are besides simmering with Bangladesh, which wants the AA – successful power of the full borderline portion betwixt Myanmar and Bangladesh – to judge refugees backmost into areas nether its authority.

Dhaka is besides reportedly backing equipped Rohingya groups to unit Arakan forces, portion the AA is wary that Bangladesh could enactment a breakaway portion successful Rakhine, threatening its territorial ambitions for the state.

Battle for Chinese-built port

South of Sittwe, a decisive combat looms for Kyaukphyu, the coastal hub linking Myanmar to China’s Yunnan state done duplicate lipid and state pipelines and a deep-sea larboard that is portion of China’s Belt and Road infrastructure project.

Anthony Davis, a Bangkok-based expert with defence work Janes, predicts the AA could motorboat a monsoon violative betwixt September and October, utilizing cloudy skies arsenic screen against aerial assaults by the military’s warplanes and which would boost its chances of capturing Kyaukphyu.

Davis said munition stocks seized by the AA successful 2024 could dwindle by 2026, portion Chinese unit whitethorn bounds arms supplies utilized by the rebels from entering bluish Myanmar – factors that adhd urgency to the AA pressing its attacks now.

He estimated 3,000 authorities troops are defending Kyaukphyu, backed by jets, drones and naval firepower.

With astatine slightest 40,000 fighters aft its conscription thrust – and present becoming Myanmar’s largest taste service – the AA could apt perpetrate 10,000 troops to the battle connected Kyaukphyu, Davis said.

This photograph taken from a vessel connected October 2, 2019, shows vessels docked astatine the larboard of a Chinese-owned lipid refinery works connected Made Island disconnected Kyaukphyu, Rakhine State, Myanmar [Ye Aung Thu/AFP]

Based connected its way record, Davis believes the AA has a “significant chance” of seizing the port, successful what could go “one of the astir consequential and costliest campaigns” of the civilian war.

About 50 Chinese information unit stay successful Kyaukphyu, according to a Chinese manufacture root cited by Davis, who believes Beijing has accepted the AA mightiness seizure the installation – arsenic agelong arsenic its assets enactment protected.

But Beijing has besides intensified its backing of Myanmar’s subject rulers successful caller months.

The ULA typical said Kyaukphyu is simply a “sensitive area” for the AA, wherever it uses “the slightest magnitude of unit necessary” and maintains a “firm argumentation of protecting overseas investments and unit from each countries”.

The AA would “strive to prosecute each imaginable means to foster affirmative relations with China”, the typical added.

Widening War

India, too, has stakes successful Rakhine done the Kaladan transport project, which aims to link India’s distant northeast regions to the Bay of Bengal via the India-built Sittwe larboard and stream routes moving done AA-controlled territory.

That corridor would let India to bypass Bangladesh and make an alternate commercialized way for India with Myanmar.

Analysts accidental taking power of the port, roadworthy and stream web could let the AA to taxation Indian trade, boosting its finances portion besides undermining the Myanmar military’s ties with New Delhi.

If the AA does win successful capturing Rakhine’s coastal ports, the equipped radical could feasibly power transport and commercialized gateways captious to some China and India, which would make leverage that nary different equipped subordinate successful the Myanmar civilian warfare holds.

That could elevate the AA-backed Arakan People’s Revolutionary Government arsenic a determination powerbroker, Davis said.

The Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar says the AA is besides deployed beyond Rakhine and present leads the country’s astir extended confederation of equipped groups.

“No different taste equipped radical has woven specified a far-reaching web of power among the country’s adjacent procreation of fighters,” the institute wrote.

But with the subject regaining mislaid crushed successful different regions of the state portion preparing to clasp elections successful December – already wide dismissed arsenic a sham – determination is simply a imaginable the AA could 1 time hold to a ceasefire with the subject authorities oregon proceed to combat and perchance beryllium beardown capable to look the subject alone.

Commenting connected specified a scenario, the ULA typical called for vigilance against the military’s accepted “divide and rule” strategy.

“War often involves advances and retreats,” said the representative. “This time, we are assured that the absorption forces tin execute meaningful alteration successful the country.”