China’s growth stumbles in July as retail sales, industrial output miss forecasts

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SHANGHAI, CHINA - AUGUST 14, 2025 - Tourists are visiting the Bund successful Shanghai, China connected August 14, 2025.

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China's system mislaid momentum successful July, with maturation faltering crossed the board, arsenic anemic home request persisted and Beijing intensified efforts to curb excess capacity.

Retail income past period roseate 3.7% from a twelvemonth earlier, information from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Friday, sharply missing analysts' estimates for a 4.6% maturation successful a Reuters canvass and slowing from June's 4.8% growth.

Industrial output roseate 5.7% from a twelvemonth agone successful July, its weakest level since November past year, according to LSEG data, and weaker than analysts' expectations for a 5.9% rise.

Fixed-asset investment, reported connected a year-to-date basis, expanded 1.6% this twelvemonth arsenic of July, undershooting economists' forecasts for a 2.7% maturation and slowing from 2.8% successful the archetypal six months.

Separately, China's survey-based municipality unemployment complaint successful July came successful astatine 5.2%, edging higher aft remaining astatine 5% successful May and June. Unemployment complaint for those aged betwixt 16 and 24, excluding assemblage students, however, has remained supra 14% for a year.

Beijing and Washington connected Monday announced that they would widen the tariff intermission for different 90 days until mid-November, averting the steep tariffs and allowing much clip for some sides to negociate a durable deal.

Despite the impermanent truce, "core disputes — from tech entree and captious minerals to concern argumentation and geopolitical alignments — stay unresolved," said Jing Qian, co-founder and managing manager of the Center for China Analysis astatine the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Qian, who advised some governments during the ongoing negotiations, said the "big governmental trade-offs" are being reserved for a imaginable acme betwixt U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping successful the coming months.

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