CNBC Daily Open: Another year of geopolitical uncertainties

It's hardly a week into 2026 and already, the twelvemonth is making its intentions clear.

After the U.S. subject onslaught connected Venezuela and seizure of its person Nicolás Maduro and his woman connected Saturday, planetary markets reacted with notable calm: Most bourses crossed Asia, Europe and the U.S. edged higher portion defence and vigor stocks rallied. World leaders, meanwhile, moved rapidly to involvement retired their positions.

But questions abound, peculiarly concerning Venezuela's oil. The state holds the largest proven crude lipid reserves successful the world, yet it remains acold excessively aboriginal to measure whether the U.S.-Venezuela tensions could unfastened the doorway for U.S. lipid companies to put successful the South American country. Chevron is the lone U.S. lipid large presently operating successful the country, and questions surrounding governance, sanctions and governmental legitimacy remain.

And the effects are rippling good beyond Caracas. U.S. President Donald Trump has again turned his attraction to Greenland, portion Maduro's apprehension has reignited debates implicit planetary instrumentality and sovereignty, bringing China's Taiwan saber-rattling into focus.

After a volatile 2025 marked by persistent geopolitical shocks, the aboriginal days of the caller twelvemonth suggest continuity alternatively than relief. So buckle up, folks — this mightiness beryllium different chaotic ride.

Maduro pleads not guilty. The ousted Venezuelan person and his woman appeared for the archetypal clip successful a New York national tribunal Monday stateside to look cause trafficking charges. Maduro said that helium had been "kidnapped" by U.S. forces and was a "prisoner of war."

U.S. markets rally successful Venezuela aftermath. On Monday stateside, each 3 cardinal benchmarks rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average clocking a caller all-time precocious successful the session. The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed 0.94% higher.

Trump's comments rise alarm successful Denmark. The U.S. President reiterated Monday that helium wants to get Greenland for "national security." The remarks sent Denmark, which is liable for the defence of the self-governing Danish territory, into a "full situation mode."

Expensive roadworthy up successful Venezuela for lipid companies. Chevron has the vantage of rebuilding the country's vigor assemblage arsenic it is the lone U.S. large operating there, Wall Street analysts said. But it would necessitate astir $53 cardinal of concern implicit the adjacent 15 years to conscionable support crude lipid accumulation level of 1.1 cardinal barrels per time Rystad Energy said.

[PRO] Where Vanguard sees higher risk-adjusted returns. The institution likes a 40/60 portfolio for the caller year, which is bully for investors focusing connected the short-to-medium term, said Roger Aliaga-Díaz, Vanguard's planetary caput of portfolio operation and main economist, Americas.

China decries U.S. enactment successful Venezuela — adjacent arsenic it guards billions astatine stake

China reacted swiftly to the U.S. subject onslaught connected Venezuela connected Saturday night, expressing shock and condemnation. The concern raises concerns for Beijing due to the fact that of China's vulnerability successful the country, said Zichen Wang, a probe chap astatine the Beijing-based deliberation vessel Center for China and Globalization.

Chinese companies, mostly state-owned, person invested $4.8 cardinal successful Venezuela over the past 2 decades, according to information compiled by the U.S.-based probe steadfast Rhodium Group.

"China is apt to beryllium wary of being dragged into this conflict, arsenic Venezuela carries constricted economical value for China and small geopolitical proximity," said Yue Su, main economist, China, astatine The Economist Intelligence Unit.

— Evelyn Cheng