CNBC's The China Connection newsletter: Beijing gears up for a big strategy meeting as tensions with Washington deepen

While tensions flare with the U.S., China is charting its people for the adjacent 5 years.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and the country's apical leaders, known arsenic the Central Committee, volition conscionable adjacent week from Monday to Thursday for a readying gathering called the "Fourth Plenum."

The gathering reminds the U.S. government, connected the verge of perchance its longest shutdown successful history, that China is simply a large believer successful planning. Beijing has held the strategy-setting gathering twice each decade since the 1950s to rally the state astir circumstantial societal and economical goals.

This year, China has promoted its achievements nether the "14th five-year plan" contempt U.S. unit connected tech and trade.

The upcoming "15th five-year plan" is peculiarly captious arsenic China has laid retired adjacent longer-term ambitions for 2035, said Zong Liang, erstwhile main researcher astatine the Bank of China. By then, China aims to boost per capita gross home product to the mid-range of developed countries, portion achieving "major breakthroughs" successful halfway technologies.

But that's getting up of the contiguous challenges that policymakers volition sermon adjacent week: navigating accrued U.S. tech restrictions, the anticipation of a 100% tariff hike and lackluster home demand.

Rather than denote sweeping changes, Beijing is apt to treble down connected "reforms" to boost home request — from reducing determination concern barriers wrong China to expanding visa access, Zong said.

Following a caller ramp-up of enactment for high-tech industries, Beijing volition apt pledge much enactment for homegrown semiconductors, artificial intelligence and humanoid robots. Full details aren't expected until the yearly parliamentary gathering successful March 2026, though a readout of adjacent week's gathering should connection an aboriginal look astatine the nonstop priorities.

"The exertion portion of the [plan] should absorption connected 2 things: AI, wherever the adoption complaint successful cardinal areas is required to scope 90% by 2030; and basal technological research, which remains immoderate mode disconnected the authoritative target," Tianchen Xu, elder economist for Asia for the Economist Intelligence Unit, said successful a note.

At a clip erstwhile the U.S. is scaling backmost connected its clime commitments, China has the adjacent 5 years to marque bully connected its pledge to commencement reducing c emissions aft 2030.

So far, China is falling down successful its purpose to trim its emissions rate, Xu said. "We deliberation that achieving this extremity is inactive possible, but would necessitate much concerted efforts connected powerfulness marketplace reform, and the weeding retired of emission-intensive industries."

It's inactive unclear whether China tin trust connected readying unsocial to execute tech breakthroughs and economical growth.

In fact, Macquarie's Chief China Economist Larry Hu noted that the country's three most important economic shifts successful the past 25 years "were driven by outer request [changes] alternatively than the Five-Year Plans."

These see China's accrued relation successful planetary proviso chains aft joining the World Trade Organization and Beijing's determination to ace down connected the spot sector. Hu present expects different large turning constituent arsenic exports cool, pursuing their recent resilience contempt U.S. tariffs.

And sure, China's electrical conveyance ambitions person rocked the planetary autos industry. But Beijing has besides fallen abbreviated connected respective "Made successful China 2025" targets that were announced backmost successful 2015.

The domestically built C919 rider jet, for example, continues to trust connected U.S. and European components.

Then there's the increasing interest that China's accent connected manufacturing without capable home request has forced galore companies into a race to the bottom. The resulting oversupply has flooded planetary markets with inexpensive goods, pressuring the concern basal of different countries and prompting tariff threats, not conscionable from the U.S., but besides from Mexico and the EU.

Beijing's enactment is that countries should not blasted China, and alternatively stock exertion by playing to each nation's respective strengths.

Some countries, including Russia and different members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that met successful Tianjin past month, person shown involvement successful adopting China's technology, which is often cheaper than U.S. oregon European alternatives. DeepSeek, for example, has undercut OpenAI connected some AI operating costs and accessibility.

But different countries whitethorn spot China's emergence arsenic a threat. Washington has tightened export controls and expanded tariffs arsenic Beijing continues to situation U.S. dominance successful cardinal industries. China's economical expansion, meanwhile, continues to endanger Washington's dominance arsenic the world's largest economy.

Hence, the Catch-22 successful China's goals: Beijing has underscored the request to equilibrium nationalist information with development. The state is besides keen connected prioritizing self-preservation and home stability.

Next week, China's leaders volition awesome however they expect that seemingly contradictory premix of ideals to play retired — earlier seeing whether Xi volition conscionable with Trump successful South Korea aboriginal this month.

China's banal marketplace traded higher connected Wednesday aft U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell provided a few hints that much involvement complaint cuts are successful the cards.

The Hang Seng Index roseate 1.94%, portion the CSI 300 added 1.47%. Both indexes person added 29% and astir 17% respectively. Yields connected China's 10-year authorities enslaved mislaid astir 1 ground constituent to 1.757%.

The show of the Shanghai Composite implicit the past year.

Oct. 16: Alibaba's Tmall holds Singles Day buying festival property league successful Shanghai

Oct. 17: Apple opens iPhone Air reservations successful mainland China, with income to statesman Oct. 22

Oct. 17 - 19: GT World Challenge Asia holds racing bid successful Beijing for the first time arsenic China seeks to physique up locally hosted sports events

Oct. 20: China to merchandise Q3 GDP, retail income and different economical information for September

Oct. 20 - 23: China to clasp 'Fourth Plenum' to sermon improvement goals for the upcoming 5 years