Contrary to India’s fears, Bangladesh is not joining a China-Pakistan axis

On July 8, Indian Chief of Defence Staff Anil Chauhan delivered a pointed connection astatine the Observer Research Foundation successful New Delhi, raising alarms implicit a budding alignment of strategical interests betwixt China, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The wide cautioned that specified a trilateral convergence, if it gains traction, could person superior implications for India’s information and disrupt the determination equilibrium of power.

His remarks came successful the aftermath of a wide circulated photograph from Kunming, China, showing diplomats from the 3 nations gathering during the inaugural trilateral talks held alongside determination economical forums. While the gathering was officially billed arsenic a diplomatic engagement, the representation has sent ripples done India’s strategical community.

Bangladesh, intelligibly alert of the sensitivities involved, has moved swiftly to incorporate the narrative. Touhid Hossain, overseas affairs advisor to Dhaka’s interim government, publically disavowed immoderate volition of joining bloc-based oregon adversarial alliances. Dhaka reiterated that its overseas argumentation remains firmly nonaligned and anchored successful sovereign autonomy.

Despite these assurances, New Delhi’s strategical calculus appears to beryllium shifting. There is present a increasing cognition successful New Delhi that, nether the interim enactment of Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh whitethorn beryllium recalibrating its overseas policy, moving distant from the overt closeness seen nether erstwhile Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Under Hasina, India and Bangladesh enjoyed unusually lukewarm ties characterised by heavy information cooperation, cross-border connectivity projects and shared determination objectives. Dhaka took beardown enactment against anti-India insurgents, gave India entree to transit routes done Bangladeshi territory and mostly aligned itself with New Delhi’s strategical priorities.

Whether existent oregon perceived, this displacement is influencing however India reads the determination landscape.

Chauhan besides drew attraction to a broader, troubling pattern: External powers – chiefly China – are leveraging economical fragilities crossed the Indian Ocean portion to deepen their influence. With countries specified arsenic Sri Lanka and Pakistan progressively beholden to Chinese concern and aid, concerns are mounting that Beijing is systematically encircling India done soft-power entrenchment.

Bangladesh’s case, however, remains somewhat unique. Its economy, though nether pressure, is comparatively resilient, and Dhaka continues to emphasise pragmatic, interest-driven diplomacy implicit ideological alignment. The Kunming meeting, portion symbolically charged, does not yet correspond a ceremonial strategical realignment.

Still, the enactment of a trilateral model marks a important development. Unlike erstwhile bilateral engagements, this format introduces a caller magnitude of coordination that could germinate successful unpredictable ways.

The echoes of past are hard to ignore. In the 1960s, China and Pakistan maintained a choky strategical axis that tacitly encompassed East Pakistan – what is present Bangladesh. That configuration unravelled successful 1971 with Bangladesh’s independence.

Today, however, subtle signs suggest elements of that strategical triad whitethorn beryllium resurfacing – this clip successful a much analyzable geopolitical theatre.

For Beijing, deepening ties with some Pakistan and Bangladesh serves its broader nonsubjective of consolidating power successful South Asia and the Indian Ocean region. For Islamabad, it provides a furniture of diplomatic insulation and strategical leverage. For Dhaka, the narration is much tactical – an effort to hedge against determination volatility astatine a clip erstwhile its once-stable ties with New Delhi look progressively uncertain.

Bangladesh’s cautious posture is besides shaped by volatile home politics. Since the July protests and the installation of an interim administration, interior cohesion has frayed. Polarisation is resurging, and with nationalist elections looming successful aboriginal 2026, the government’s precedence is stability, not strategy. Foreign argumentation successful this clime is reactive – not transformative.

Dhaka understands the risks of leaning excessively acold successful immoderate direction. Lingering humanities resentments with Pakistan stay politically delicate portion an overreliance connected China would strain important commercialized and diplomatic ties with the West, particularly the United States, wherever concerns implicit antiauthoritarian backsliding and quality rights person sharpened.

In this context, immoderate overt strategical alignment could invitation unnecessary scrutiny and backlash.

The Kunming meeting, contempt its symbolism, was chiefly economical successful absorption – touching connected trade, connectivity, infrastructure and taste cooperation. However, erstwhile China and Pakistan floated the connection to institutionalise trilateral practice done a associated moving group, Bangladesh demurred. This was not indecision. It was a deliberate, calculated refusal.

Dhaka’s overseas argumentation has agelong been defined by “engagement without entanglement”. It maintains unfastened channels with each large powers portion avoiding the traps of bloc politics. This nonaligned posture is simply a halfway rule guiding its diplomacy. Bangladesh welcomes dialog and economical cooperation, but it draws a steadfast enactment astatine subject oregon strategical alignment.

For India, interpreting Bangladesh’s moves requires nuance. While Dhaka continues to broaden its planetary partnerships, it has not abandoned its captious relation successful India’s information calculus, peculiarly successful the northeastern region. The situation for New Delhi is not conscionable to show emerging partnerships but to reenforce the worth of its own.

Throughout the 2000s and 2010s, information practice betwixt New Delhi and Dhaka nether Hasina’s Awami League was pivotal successful stabilising the borderline region. Bangladesh’s decisive crackdown connected militant groups, coupled with adjacent coordination with Indian quality and information agencies, played a important relation successful suppressing insurgent threats.

Today, with India’s ties to some China and Pakistan nether terrible strain, immoderate perceived displacement successful Dhaka’s stance is scrutinised intensely successful New Delhi. The fearfulness that Beijing and Islamabad mightiness exploit Bangladesh arsenic a strategical lever to use asymmetric unit remains profoundly ingrained successful India’s information mindset.

Yet, Bangladesh’s explicit rejection of the projected trilateral moving radical reveals a clear-eyed knowing of these sensitivities. It underscores Dhaka’s intent to steer wide of actions that could escalate determination tensions.

This evolving dynamic poses a dual situation for India: It demands a recalibrated effect that moves beyond reactive defensiveness. New Delhi indispensable clasp a much sophisticated, forward-looking strategy – 1 that transcends aged governmental loyalties and adapts to the shifting diplomatic contours of South Asia.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.