Control, choke points: The battle lines in southern Sudan

Recent battlefield gains by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) whitethorn crook the tide successful Kordofan, analysts person told Al Jazeera.

Sudan’s devastating warfare betwixt the SAF and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has raged for 2 and a fractional years, resulting successful monolithic displacement and the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, according to the United Nations.

Yet SAF’s seizure successful September of the strategical metropolis of Bara, which the RSF was utilizing for logistics, supplies, and arsenic a muster constituent for reinforcements, is seen arsenic a motion that SAF whitethorn person swung the pendulum successful its favour.

Why is Bara important?

Bara lies astir 350km (217 miles) southwest of the superior Khartoum on the “Export Road” utilized to motortruck goods from Khartoum to el-Obeid, superior of North Kordofan State.

It besides exports its ain cultivation products and livestock to the remainder of Sudan.

The Khartoum-el-Obeid transportation is captious due to the fact that from el-Obeid, roads pb outwards to South Sudan and Sudan’s eastbound and Darfur successful the west.

From Khartoum, roads pb northeast to Port Sudan connected the Red Sea, wherever the wartime authorities was until recently. Roads besides pb northbound to Egypt and eastbound to Eritrea and Ethiopia.

SAF took el-Obeid successful February, aft a two-year RSF siege, and took Khartoum successful March, truthful taking Bara gave it coagulated power implicit the Export Road to usage arsenic a proviso route, autarkic Sudanese subject and governmental expert Akram Ali told Al Jazeera.

(Al Jazeera)

Bara and el-Obeid prevarication adjacent the westernmost reaches of SAF control, good to the eastbound of el-Fasher, the superior of North Darfur and the past metropolis SAF holds successful the immense occidental region. Between the 2 is simply a agelong of RSF power – and siege connected el-Fasher – that SAF has to breach.

For the RSF, keeping Bara and a foothold successful Kordofan was important due to the fact that it allowed it to enactment unit connected SAF, which holds territory to the north, and to nexus the areas it controls successful Kordofan and Darfur to South Sudan, links it uses to determination weapons and fighters.

How did SAF instrumentality Bara?

The service launched an violative connected Bara from the southbound connected September 11, portion RSF defences were concentrated connected the eastbound side, expert Abdul Majeed Abdul Hamid said.

SAF sent continuous drone strikes against RSF targets, past launched the Darfur Track Armed Struggle Movement, an battle unit known for mobility and speed, from el-Obeid.

The unit successfully engaged and defeated the RSF portion defending Bara, past entered the metropolis with dense firepower, according to a subject serviceman who spoke connected information of anonymity.

The serviceman said the cognition relied connected velocity and keeping the RSF occupied connected respective fronts to forestall it from sending reinforcements.

Most of Bara’s civilians supported SAF, according to Abdul Hamid, and the RSF rapidly retreated.

The cognition chopped disconnected RSF proviso and subject enactment lines, helium added, isolating their remaining positions successful areas specified arsenic al-Khuwei to the westbound and al-Nahud to the east.

For the RSF, keeping Bara and a foothold successful Kordofan was important due to the fact that it allowed it to enactment unit connected SAF, which holds territory to the north, and to nexus the areas it controls successful Kordofan and Darfur to South Sudan, links it uses to determination weapons and fighters.

Losing Bara besides meant that the RSF could nary longer support the metropolis of el-Obeid nether siege.

Will the RSF suffer the Kordofans?

The RSF announced successful February this twelvemonth that it had entered an confederation with the Southern People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N). South Kordofan includes the Abyei region, disputed betwixt Sudan and South Sudan. The SPLM-N controls the vast, isolated Nuba Mountains portion successful South Kordofan, close up against the borderline with South Sudan.

However, contempt that caller stronghold, analysts told Al Jazeera that losing power implicit the Export Road spells a superior deterioration successful the RSF’s powerfulness successful the Kordofans.

“The army’s introduction into el-Obeid marked the opening of their existent collapse,” said Ali.

Widespread illness outbreaks person overwhelmed hospitals successful war-torn Sudan [Screengrab/Al Jazeera]

An service portion called “Al-Sayyad” – named aft a commandant killed successful the aboriginal days of the warfare – had moved from Rabak, superior of White Nile State, successful a run that yet reached el-Obeid.

Political expert Ahmed Shamukh said liberating Bara opens the doorway to reactivating the SAF aerial basal successful el-Obeid, the largest successful Kordofan, aft 2 years of inactivity, “significantly [enhancing] the logistical and combat capabilities of the Sudanese army” and helping SAF’s run to expel RSF from the Kordofans.

Taking backmost each of Kordofan would let SAF to enactment towards liberating Darfur, Abdul Hamid said.

“The service has combat acquisition and unit susceptible of liberating Kordofan with the aforesaid capabilities it utilized to retake the cities of cardinal Sudan and the capital,” Abdul Hamid continued.

The warfare has killed tens of thousands of radical and displaced much than 10 cardinal successful what has go the world’s largest humanitarian crisis.

According to the UN, a full of 24.6 cardinal radical look acute nutrient insecurity, portion 19 cardinal radical deficiency entree to harmless h2o and sanitation.