Could Israel be planning a second war on Iran?

Israel’s enactment views its 12-day war with Iran past period arsenic a occurrence – respective Iranian subject leaders were killed, Iran’s antiaircraft subject capabilities were weakened, and the United States was convinced to instrumentality portion successful a raid connected the Iranian atomic tract astatine Fordow.

But portion Israeli leaders were speedy to assertion victory, they emphasised that they were acceptable to onslaught again if necessary, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying helium had “no volition of easing disconnected the state pedal”.

And Israel is already looking for the adjacent accidental to wage different devastating struggle aimed astatine bringing down the Islamic Republic successful Iran, analysts told Al Jazeera.

However, to bash so, it would necessitate the ‘permission’ of the US, which whitethorn not beryllium consenting to springiness it.

Back successful mid-June, a astonishment Israeli attack led to the war, successful which much than 1,000 Iranians and 29 Israelis were killed.

Israel justified the warfare by claiming that it was acting preemptively and successful “self-defence” to instrumentality retired Iran’s atomic programme, which Tehran has agelong said is for civilian purposes.

Speaking to Al Jazeera earlier this week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed uncertainty implicit however agelong the existent ceasefire volition stay successful place.

“We are afloat prepared for immoderate caller Israeli subject move, and our equipped forces are acceptable to onslaught heavy wrong Israel again,” helium said.

Cause for war

Despite Israel’s accent that it was targeting Iran’s atomic facilities, it chiefly assassinated high-ranking authorities and subject officials, indicating a wide effort to weaken and perchance bring down the Iranian establishment.

Trita Parsi, an adept connected Iran and the cofounder and enforcement vice president of the Quincy Institute, a left-wing US deliberation tank, believes Netanyahu is looking for an accidental to resume that mission.

“The crushed the Israelis privation to onslaught again … is due to the fact that they privation to marque definite they crook Iran into the adjacent Syria oregon Lebanon – countries Israel tin onslaught anytime with impunity,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Israel’s adjacent accidental to muster up a pretext for a warfare could travel aft European countries reimpose debilitating sanctions connected Iran.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is reported to person held a telephone with his counterparts from Germany, France and the United Kingdom earlier successful July, successful which they agreed that United Nations Security Council sanctions would beryllium reimposed if a caller atomic woody was not agreed upon by the extremity of August.

The sanctions had been lifted erstwhile Iran and respective Western countries agreed connected a atomic woody successful 2015.

The US pulled retired of that woody 2 years into President Donald Trump’s archetypal word successful 2018 and restored sanctions arsenic portion of a maximum unit campaign. Now, European parties to the woody could bash the same, and that could punctual Iran to locomotion retired of the atomic non-proliferation treaty, warned Parsi.

“That would supply [Israel] with a governmental model to [attack again],” helium told Al Jazeera.

Meir Javedanfar, Iran lecturer astatine Israel’s Reichman University, added that Israel would nevertheless person to muster up oregon contiguous credible quality that suggests Iran is rebuilding oregon repairing its atomic programme.

He warned that, “to motorboat specified an attack, Israel would request the statement of the United States and its President Trump”, support helium regarded arsenic little apt successful airy of US interest implicit Israeli attacks connected Syria.

Israeli operations

While Israeli strikes connected Iran whitethorn not beryllium imminent, a study successful The New York Times connected Wednesday suggests that it is carrying retired covert operations liable for abrupt explosions and fires crossed the country.

The insubstantial cited 3 informed officials and a European diplomat who attributed the seemingly random fires and explosions astatine flat complexes, lipid refineries, adjacent an airdrome and a footwear factory, to acts of sabotage apt carried retired by Israel.

“I deliberation Benjamin Netanyahu has recovered a look wherever it is capable to onslaught Iran with impunity contempt pushback from Donald Trump,” said Negar Mortazavi, an adept connected Iran with the Center for International Policy (CIP), a deliberation vessel based successful Washington, DC.

Any ongoing covert operations are a effect of Israel’s extensive infiltration of Iranian information and infrastructure that became evident during the aboriginal stages of the June conflict, with individuals targeted done what was presumed to beryllium teams of section quality operatives and drones launched against Iranian targets from wrong Iranian territory.

There was nary grounds to suggest that Israel’s web wrong Iran had ended with the war, expert and Iran adept Ori Goldberg said.

“Israel has built a robust [security] strategy wrong Iran and, similar each specified systems, its muscles request flexing occasionally,” helium said from Tel Aviv. “Sometimes this isn’t for strategical reasons, truthful overmuch arsenic tactical ones. As soon arsenic you person infrastructure oregon radical successful spot wrong different country, you person a constricted clip to usage them, truthful if that’s mounting fires oregon mounting detonations, it’s a mode of keeping them progressive and letting Iran cognize they’re there.”

Likelihood of caller war

Few could person predicted the implicit lack of restraint with which Netanyahu, antecedently a fig considered to beryllium somewhat averse to conflict, has attacked neighbouring states, Syria and Lebanon, arsenic good arsenic determination actors, specified arsenic Yemen and Iran, portion maintaining his brutal battle upon Gaza.

But portion a renewed violative upon Israel’s humanities bogeyman, Iran, mightiness beryllium fashionable successful the look of increasing interior part implicit Israel’s warfare connected Gaza, however good received it mightiness beryllium by his main state remains to beryllium seen.

“Trump is simply a interest and Israel volition privation to support connected the close broadside of immoderate enactment he’s drawn [on its actions],” Goldberg said. “But Iran is simply a statement contented wrong Israel. People mightiness reason astir Gaza, but ne'er Iran. If Netanyahu feels himself nether threat, he’s going to privation to ace the Iranian whip and unify radical down him.”

Iran, for its part, won’t beryllium caught flat-footed a 2nd time, accidental analysts.

Mortazavi told Al Jazeera that Iran is expecting Israel to proceed its aggression, adjacent arsenic it inactive holds retired anticipation to scope a woody connected its atomic programme done diplomacy.

“I deliberation they cognize that a woody volition trim the chances of an Israeli attack,” she said.