Could Reform's hopes of a famous victory in Caerphilly be dashed by a rival political party?

In 1645, the stronghold of Caerphilly's celebrated medieval castle was besieged and captured by the forces of Oliver Cromwell.

And arsenic the polls closed astatine 10pm aft a bruising by-election battle, the Labour stronghold of Caerphilly was successful sedate information of being captured by the forces of Nigel Farage and Reform UK successful 2025.

Famous for the 3 Cs of coal, food and its castle, Caerphilly has been represented astatine Westminster by Labour MPs for much than a period and successful Cardiff since 1999, erstwhile the Welsh Assembly was created.

That's astir to change. Labour's ballot - erstwhile arsenic impregnable arsenic the castle - has crumbled similar Caerphilly cheese, and the Tories, Lib Dems and Green Party are nowhere.

But Reform's UK hopes of a celebrated triumph successful Caerphilly could beryllium dashed by different governmental enactment hopeful of making a immense breakthrough successful Wales, Plaid Cymru, 2nd to Labour successful past year's wide predetermination and successful each predetermination for the Senedd since devolution.

As helium arrived astatine the number astatine Caerphilly Leisure Centre soon earlier the polls closed, Plaid Cymru's seasoned candidate, Lindsay Whittle, 72, was remarkably cheerful. Asked if helium was going to win, helium declared, punching the air: "I surely anticipation so!"

An sentiment canvass successful the constituency past week enactment enactment for Reform UK astatine 42%, Plaid Cymru 38%, Labour a dismal 12%, the Conservatives successful mislaid deposit territory astatine 4%, on with the Greens astatine 3% and the Lib Dems hardly registering astatine 1%.

Unlike Cromwell's forces, who arrived successful Caerphilly connected horseback astir 400 years ago, Mr Farage galloped into the constituency connected polling time successful a accelerated car, successful what was his 3rd sojourn of the by-election run to the constituency.

A triumph for Mr Farage's candidate, 30-year-old Llyr Powell, would permission Reform UK connected the roadworthy to further triumphs and person an interaction connected UK authorities acold beyond the Welsh Valleys. It would beryllium a pointer to monolithic Reform UK gains successful local, Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd elections adjacent year.

It would crook the temper of Labour MPs from its existent gloom and trepidation into unsighted panic and would person them - if they were not convinced already - that Mr Farage is connected the march to Downing Street and galore of the 2024 Labour intake volition suffer their seats astatine the adjacent wide election.

But let's not regularisation retired a Plaid victory. That would nonstop shockwaves passim Wales and beryllium seen arsenic a wide awesome that Labour's 26-year dominance of the Welsh authorities is astir to travel to an undignified end.

The lone certainties contiguous are humiliation for Labour and near-wipeout for the Conservatives and Lib Dems.

The lone uncertainty is whether it's Reform UK oregon Plaid Cymru whose troops - similar Cromwell's successful 1645 - seizure Labour's Caerphilly stronghold.