‘Cruel joke’: How Indian H-1B dreams are crash landing after Trump fee hike

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New Delhi, India — Meghna Gupta* had planned it each – a master’s grade by 23, a fewer years of moving successful India, and past a determination to the United States earlier she turned 30 to yet settee there.

So, she clocked countless hours astatine the Hyderabad bureau of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), India’s largest IT steadfast and a operator of the country’s emergence arsenic the planetary outsourcing powerhouse successful the sector. She waited to get to the promotion that would mean a stint on California’s West Coast.

Now, Gupta is 29, and her dreams prevarication successful tatters aft US President Donald Trump’s medication upended the H-1B visa programme that tech firms person utilized for much than 3 decades to bring skilled workers to the US.

Trump’s determination to summation the interest for the visas from astir $2,000, successful galore cases, to $100,000 has imposed melodramatic caller costs connected companies that sponsor these applications. The basal wage an H-1B visa worker is expected to beryllium paid is $60,000. But the employer’s outgo present rises to $160,000 astatine the minimum, and successful galore cases, companies volition apt find American workers with akin skills for little pay.

This is the Trump administration’s rationale arsenic it presses US companies to prosecute section endowment amid its larger anti-immigration policies. But for thousands of young radical astir the satellite inactive captivated by the American dream, this is simply a blow. And obscurity is that much truthful than successful India, the world’s astir populous nation, that, contempt an system that is increasing faster than astir different large nations, has inactive been bleeding skilled young radical to developed nations.

For years, Indian IT companies themselves sponsored the astir H-1B visas of each firms, utilizing them to bring Indian employees to the US and past contractually outsourcing their expertise to different businesses, too. This changed: In 2014, 7 retired of the 10 companies that received the astir H-1B visas were Indian oregon started successful India; In 2024, that fig dropped to four.

And successful the archetypal six months of 2025, Gupta’s TCS was the lone Indian institution successful the top-10 H-1B visa recipients, successful a database different dominated by Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Apple.

But what had not changed until present was the demographic of the workers that adjacent the supra US companies hired connected H-1B visas. More than 70 percent of each H-1B visas were granted to Indian nationals successful 2024, ranging from the tech assemblage to medicine. Chinese nationals were a distant second, with little than 12 percent.

Now, thousands crossed India fearfulness that this pathway to the US is being slammed shut.

“It has near maine heartbroken,” Gupta told Al Jazeera of Trump’s interest hike.

“All my life, I planned for this; everything circled astir this extremity for maine to determination to the US,” said Gupta, who was calved and raised successful Bageshwar, a municipality of 10,000 radical successful the bluish Indian authorities of Uttarakhand.

“The alleged ‘American Dream’ looks similar a cruel gag now.”

‘In the hole’

Gupta’s situation reflects a broader contradiction that defines India today. On the 1 hand, the state — arsenic Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his authorities often notation — is the world’s fastest-growing large economy.

India contiguous boasts the world’s fourth-largest gross home merchandise (GDP), down conscionable the US, China and Germany, aft it passed Japan earlier this year. But the country’s instauration of caller jobs lags acold down the fig of young radical who participate its workforce each year, widening its employment gap. India’s biggest cities are creaking nether inadequate nationalist infrastructure, potholed roads, postulation snarls and increasing income inequality.

The result: Millions similar Gupta aspire to a beingness successful the West, picking their vocation choices, usually successful sectors similar engineering oregon medicine, and moving to get into hard-fought seats successful apical colleges – and past migrating. In the past 5 years, India has witnessed a drastic emergence successful the outflow of skilled professionals, peculiarly successful STEM fields, who migrate to countries similar Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the US.

As per the Indian government’s data, those numbers roseate from 94,145 Indians successful 2020 to 348,629 by 2024 — a 270 percent rise.

Trump’s caller visa authorities could present efficaciously adjacent the pipeline of those skilled workers into the US. The interest hike comes connected the backmost of a bid of hostility points successful a souring US-India narration successful caller months. New Delhi is besides presently facing a steep 50 percent tariff connected its exports to the US — fractional of that for buying Russian crude, which the US says is backing the Kremlin’s warfare connected Ukraine.

Ajay Srivastava, a erstwhile Indian commercialized serviceman and laminitis of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based deliberation tank, told Al Jazeera that the hardest-hit sectors aft the caller visa argumentation volition beryllium “the ones that Indian professionals dominate: mid-level IT services jobs, bundle developers, task managers, and back-end enactment successful concern and healthcare”.

For galore of these positions, the caller $100,000 interest exceeds an entry-level employee’s yearly salary, making sponsorship uneconomical, particularly for smaller firms and startups, said Srivastava. “The outgo of hiring a overseas idiosyncratic present exceeds section hiring by a wide margin,” helium said, adding that this would displacement the hiring calculus of US firms.

“American firms volition scout much home talent, reserve H-1Bs for lone the hardest-to-fill specializer roles, and propulsion regular enactment offshore to India oregon different hubs,” said Srivastava.

“The marketplace has already priced successful this pivot,” helium said, citing the autumn of Indian banal markets since Trump’s announcement, “as investors brace for shrinking US hiring”.

Indian STEM graduates and students, helium said, “have to rethink US vocation plans altogether”.

To Sudhanshu Kaushik, laminitis of the North American Association of Indian Students, a assemblage with members crossed 120 universities, the Trump administration’s “motive is to make panic and distress among H-1B visa holders and different migrant visa holders”.

“To punctual them that they don’t belong,” Kaushik told Al Jazeera. “And astatine immoderate time, astatine immoderate whim, the anticipation of remaining successful the United States tin go incredibly hard and excruciatingly impossible.”

The announcement came soon aft the commencement of the caller world session, erstwhile galore planetary students – including from India, which sends the largest cohort of overseas students to the US – person begun classes.

Typically, a ample chunk of specified students enactment backmost successful the US for enactment aft graduating. An investigation of the National Survey of College Graduates suggests that 41 percent of planetary students who graduated betwixt 2012 and 2020 were inactive successful the US successful 2021. For PhD holders, that fig jumps to 75 percent.

But Kaushik said helium has received much than 80 queries connected their hotline for students present disquieted astir what the aboriginal holds.

“They cognize that they’re already successful the hole,” helium said, referring to the tuition and different fees moving into tens of thousands of dollars that they person invested successful a US education, with progressively unclear occupation prospects.

The scenery successful the US today, Srivastava of GTRI said, represents “fewer opportunities, tougher competition, and shrinking returns connected US education”.

Nasscom, India’s apex IT commercialized body, has said the policy’s abrupt rollout could “potentially disrupt families” and the continuity of ongoing onshore projects for the country’s exertion services firms.

The caller policy, it added, could person “ripple effects” connected the US innovation ecosystem and planetary occupation markets, pointing retired that for companies, “additional outgo volition necessitate adjustments”.

‘They bash not attraction for radical astatine all’

Ansh*, a elder bundle technologist astatine Meta, graduated from an Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), 1 successful a concatenation of India’s astir prestigious engineering school, and landed a occupation with Facebook soon aft that.

He present lives with his woman successful Menlo Park, successful the bosom of the US’s Silicon Valley, and drives a BMW sedan to work. Both Ansh and his woman are successful the US connected H-1B visas.

Last Saturday’s quality from the White House near him rattled.

He spent that evening figuring retired flights for his friends — Indians connected H-1B visas who were retired of the country, 1 successful London, different successful Bengaluru, India — to spot if they could unreserved backmost to the US earlier the caller rules kicked successful connected Sunday, arsenic large US tech firms had recommended to their employees.

Since then, the Trump medication has clarified that the caller fees volition not use to existing H-1B visas oregon renewals. For now, Ansh’s occupation and presumption successful the US are secure.

But this is small reassurance, helium said.

“In the past 11 years, I person ne'er felt similar going backmost to India,” Ansh told Al Jazeera. “But this benignant of instability triggers radical to marque those beingness changes. And present we are here, wondering if 1 should instrumentality to India?”

Because helium and his woman bash not person children, Ansh said that a determination backmost to India — portion a melodramatic rupture successful their lives and plans — was astatine slightest thing they could consider. But what of his colleagues and friends connected H-1B visas, who person children, helium asked?

“The mode this has been done by the US authorities shows that they bash not attraction for radical astatine all,” helium said. “These types of decisions are similar … encephalon question strikes, and past it is conscionable executed.”

Ansh believes that the US besides stands to suffer from the caller visa policy. “The migrant publication is profoundly sprinkled into the DNA of the US’s success,” helium said.

“Once endowment goes away, innovation won’t happen,” helium said. “It is going to person semipermanent consequences for visa holders and their families. Its interaction would scope everyone, 1 mode oregon the other.”

Narendra Modi, India's premier minister, hugs Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg

India’s struggle

After the announcement from the White House connected Saturday, Prime Minister Modi’s main secretary, PK Mishra, said that the authorities was encouraging Indians moving overseas to instrumentality to the country.

Mishra’s comments were successful tune with immoderate experts who person suggested that the disruption successful the H-1B visa argumentation could service arsenic an accidental for India — arsenic it could, successful theory, stanch the encephalon drain that the state has agelong suffered from.

GTRI’s Srivastava said that US companies that person until present relied connected migrant visas similar the H-1B mightiness present research much section hiring oregon offshore immoderate jobs. “The $100,000 H-1B interest makes onsite deployment prohibitively expensive, truthful Indian IT firms volition treble down connected offshore and distant delivery,” helium said.

“US postings volition beryllium reserved lone for mission-critical roles, portion the bulk of hiring and task execution shifts to India and different offshore hubs,” helium told Al Jazeera. “For US clients, this means higher dependence connected offshore teams — raising acquainted concerns astir information security, compliance, and time-zone coordination — adjacent arsenic costs climb.”

Srivastava noted that India’s tech assemblage tin sorb immoderate returning H-1B workers, if they take to return.

But that won’t beryllium easy. He said that adjacent though hiring successful India’s IT and services assemblage has been increasing year-on-year, the gaps are real, ranging from dipping occupation postings to caller openings clustered successful AI, cloud, and information science. And US-trained returnees would expect salaries good supra Indian benchmarks.

And successful reality, Kaushik said, galore H-1B aspirants are looking astatine antithetic countries arsenic alternatives to the US — not India.

Ansh, the elder technologist astatine Meta, agreed. “In the US, we run astatine the cutting borderline of technology,” whereas the Indian tech ecosystem was inactive geared towards delivering contiguous services.

“The Indian ecosystem is not astatine the gait wherever you innovate the adjacent large happening successful the world,” helium said. “It is, successful fact, acold from there.”

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