‘Dire situation’: Russia gains ground in Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region

Kyiv, Ukraine – There is hostility successful the aerial successful Zaporizhzhia, the southeastern Ukrainian metropolis that straddles some banks of the Dnipro River.

In caller weeks, the beforehand enactment connected the left, eastbound bank, moved person and is raging astir 40km (25 miles) distant from the metropolis that besides serves arsenic the administrative superior of the Zaporizhia region.

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Three-quarters of Zaporizhia person been occupied since 2022, the twelvemonth Moscow besides declared to person officially annexed each of it, on with 3 much regions – Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson.

Russia has added earth-shattering glide bombs to its arsenal of drones and missiles that support the city’s 700,000 residents up and acrophobic astatine night.

The dense bombs, which are retired of scope of Ukrainian aerial defence, tin glide for dozens of kilometres and destruct full flat buildings.

A pistillate pulls a cart portion walking down an bare thoroughfare with dogs successful the front-line municipality of Orikhiv successful the Zaporizhia region, Ukraine, connected November 13, 2025 [Reuters]

The beforehand enactment itself is much audible.

“It’s louder, we perceive it from crossed the river,” Tetiana, a scientist whose patients consciousness progressively alarmed and depressed, told Al Jazeera.

She withheld her past sanction for information reasons.

Even though beingness successful the metropolis seems to spell connected – swimming pools and aesculapian centres are open, for lawsuit – Tetiana feels that she and her household whitethorn person to battalion up and fly soon.

“There’s a feeling that possibly astatine immoderate constituent we’ll person to leave,” she said. “There’s a readiness.”

Military analysts are besides acold from optimistic.

“[Russia] deployed resources much than a period agone to activate their beforehand connected the occidental flank,” Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, erstwhile lawman caput of Ukraine’s wide unit of equipped forces, told Al Jazeera.

Tens of thousands of troops support advancing, seizing respective villages and closing successful connected the municipality of Huliaipole successful eastbound Zaporizhia.

The town’s sanction means “a tract to locomotion around” and reflects its centuries-old value for defending cardinal Ukraine from invaders from the southbound – mostly nomadic horsemen from the steppes northbound of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

These days, Huliaipole serves arsenic a important logistical hub – and Russian forces are specified kilometres away.

“The concern became dire, [Russian forces] moved guardant and shortened the region to the municipality to 4km [2.5 miles], they tin adjacent onslaught it with mortars,” Romanenko said.

Of Huliaipole’s 20,000 residents, lone hundreds stay – mostly the aged who cannot portion with their houses, cattle and pets.

A gathering damaged by Russian subject strikes and anti-drone nets installed implicit a thoroughfare successful the front-line municipality of Orikhiv successful Zaporizhia connected November 13, 2025 [Reuters]

What helps the Russian beforehand successful Zaporizhia is an unfastened scenery with sparse trees and villages – dissimilar successful Donetsk up north, wherever Ukraine has well-fortified strongholds connected hills and plentifulness of villages and towns to clasp connected to, helium said.

Russians besides usage “couriers”, oregon wheeled robots topped with fume bombs that make a dense smokescreen – concealing Russian crushed forces from Ukrainian reconnaissance drones, helium said.

The autumn of Huliaipole whitethorn beryllium “fast, perchance without overmuch fighting”, according to Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany’s Bremen University.

The autumn “will beryllium a alternatively beardown public-relations stroke for Ukrainian forces”, helium told Al Jazeera.

Moscow’s forces support implementing their maneuver of narrow, but heavy breakthroughs of up to 15km (9.3 miles) into Ukrainian territory wherever they find anemic spots successful Ukrainian defences, helium said.

If the breakthroughs are not eliminated wrong days – thing that often requires lone 1 regiment of Ukrainian tempest troopers and auxiliary drone operators – the beforehand enactment tin beryllium maintained, Mitrokhin believes.

If not, helium said, wrong a week oregon two, each breakthrough becomes a front-line curve arsenic Russia starts to deploy drones, mortars and tanks, physique trenches, amass manpower and weaponry.

The occupation is not astir the deficiency of Ukrainian reserves but astir the dilatory decision-making by Ukraine’s leaders, apical brass and the full subject apparatus, helium said.

After patching up yet different breakthrough successful the northbound oregon the east, Ukrainian commanders support troops connected the crushed for weeks warring for hamlets wherever Russian forces person firmly entrenched.

The Ukrainians support losing manpower and resources, portion Russians are breaking done elsewhere, helium said.

“I’m afraid, with Huliaipole, things volition beryllium the same,” Mitrokhin said.

By mid-December, Huliaipole whitethorn beryllium encircled by two-thirds, and past Ukrainian forces volition commencement an cognition to prevention it “with convulsions to prevention the garrison”, Mitrokhin predicted.

“And yet, what was needed successful the opening was conscionable a deployment of a regiment to a indispensable place,” helium said.

‘Say goodbye’ to Huliaipole

Some Ukrainian observers hold with him, accusing apical Ukrainian commandant Oleksandr Syrskii of sluggishness and incompetence.

Huliaipole is “yet different unfortunate [of] the chaos of subject absorption and President [Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s] tendency to support Syrskii,” lawmaker Mariana Bezuhla wrote connected Facebook connected Friday. “Say goodbye to the municipality … It’s being razed to the ground, bypassed from the sides, but soon the warring volition beryllium successful Huliaipole itself.”

“In caller weeks, the force has importantly sped up its beforehand and is not going to dilatory down,” subject expert Konstantin Mashovets wrote connected Telegram connected Friday.

Another perceiver warned of a overmuch larger disaster.

“We’re moving towards a catastrophe of strategical standard that could pb to the nonaccomplishment of our statehood,” Serhiy Sternenko, a fashionable nationalist blogger, wrote connected Telegram connected Sunday.

But according to DeepState, a radical of Ukrainian subject analysts who verify Moscow’s gains and Kyiv’s losses by geolocating photos and videos, things are not that bad.

Russia presently controls immoderate 19 percent of Ukraine’s territory, a specified percent constituent up from the autumn of 2022.

The constituent outgo Moscow tens of thousands of servicemen, according to Western intelligence, amid economic unit caused by Western sanctions and Ukraine’s strikes connected lipid refineries and subject infrastructure.