Egypt’s all-important parliamentary elections aren’t elections at all

It is hard to overstate the value of Egypt’s ongoing House of Representatives elections.

The voting results volition not lone determine the creation of the adjacent parliament but volition besides find whether, and for however long, the regularisation of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi volition beryllium extended.

The ballot comes amid an economical crisis and increasing nationalist frustration, raising the stakes for a president hopeless to unafraid his semipermanent governmental survival.

El-Sisi came to powerfulness pursuing a 2013 military coup, rapidly consolidating powerfulness and establishing an ultra-authoritarian governmental framework.

In 2019, helium pushed for a referendum connected law amendments that would assistance him much powerfulness and efficaciously widen his rule, which was expected to extremity successful 2022.

The authorities did not instrumentality immoderate chances with the result: it blocked thousands of websites that criticised the amendments; arrested individuals who campaigned for a “no” vote; and engaged successful a operation of elector intimidation, bribery, and smear campaigning.

Given that context, it is unsurprising that el-Sisi and his supporters won a landslide “yes” vote, efficaciously guaranteeing that helium would regularisation Egypt until 2030.

Now, with lone a small much than 4 years near until 2030, el-Sisi reportedly seeks yet different extension.

He appears poised to usage the adjacent House of Representatives to o.k. a law amendment that would lengthen his tenure beyond 2030 — and possibly indefinitely.

The House of Representatives

The House is acold and distant the much important of Egypt’s 2 parliamentary chambers; the other, the Senate, mostly plays an advisory role.

The Senate elections, held past summertime amid precise debased elector turnout, were cautiously managed to guarantee implicit authorities domination.

The absorption has present shifted to the acold much consequential parliamentary elections.

The 596-seat House is liable for lawmaking and is tasked with approving proposals to amend the constitution, among different responsibilities.

Despite the important relation they play, however, members of the House are not elected successful a genuinely antiauthoritarian fashion.

The House is fundamentally structured to align with the president. Twenty-eight individuals are appointed straight by him, with the remaining 568 seats cautiously engineered to guarantee the presumption quo.

These 568 seats are divided into idiosyncratic seats, contested by candidates moving connected their own, and list-based seats, allocated done enactment lists.

In practice, astir each of the idiosyncratic seats are accessible lone to candidates with important fiscal resources oregon beardown connections to state-aligned networks, arsenic documented by investigative reporting.

The remaining list-based seats are selected done an implicit closed-list strategy alternatively than done a proportional practice arrangement.

The implicit closed-list strategy is simply a winner-takes-all method, whereby voters take lone 1 enactment database from a notional postulation of lists.

Any database that attains 50 percent of the ballot successful a fixed territory wins 100 percent of the seats successful that district.

Importantly, lone approved enactment lists are allowed to compete.

No suspense and a predetermined result

The results of each elections and referendums successful el-Sisi-era Egypt person been much oregon little predetermined.

Since 2014, the authorities has consistently eliminated imaginable statesmanlike candidates preemptively, intimidated and arrested absorption campaigners, engaged successful manipulation of voting processes, and utilized media crackdowns to guarantee electoral dominance.

The ongoing parliamentary elections person followed the expected pattern. With contention already tightly controlled done the individual-seat and list-seat systems, the National Elections Authority further narrowed the tract by eliminating each but 1 database — el-Sisi’s National List for Egypt — from contention. It has been alleged that betwixt 30 cardinal and 70 cardinal Egyptian pounds ($629504-$1.4m) were required for candidates to entree the preferred el-Sisi list.

During the archetypal circular of voting, held connected November 10 and 11, wide irregularities were alleged and immoderate intelligibly documented, including ballot buying, amerciable campaigning, and assorted different forms of elector manipulation.

Embarrassing videos showing inducements being offered were circulated online, and el-Sisi yet had to cancel and reschedule a tiny fig of idiosyncratic spot elections for immoderate districts.

The 2nd circular of voting was carried retired connected November 25-26, with violations appearing to proceed unabated contempt the National Election Authority’s claims of having implemented preventive measures.

Throughout some rounds of voting, el-Sisi’s media apparatus faithfully repeated the authoritative authorities line.

Media highlighted what they portrayed arsenic authorities successes — organisation, instrumentality and order, and precocious elector turnout — adjacent arsenic videos emerged connected societal media showing chaos and wide grounds of debased turnout.

Results volition beryllium announced adjacent month, but determination is nary suspense — observers wide expect el-Sisi’s conjugation to predominate the House, conscionable arsenic it dominates the Senate.

Unsurprisingly, aboriginal results suggest el-Sisi’s conjugation is performing well.

Buying time

El-Sisi has fundamentally rewritten the authoritarian playbook for modern Egypt.

His programme of wide authorities violence, wide arrests, absorption enactment and media bans, and draconian authorities acold surpasses the repression of his dictatorial predecessors.

His strategy of repression is possibly the main crushed wherefore el-Sisi finds the thought of surrendering power, adjacent successful a pseudo-democratic handover, wholly untenable — letting spell of powerfulness could spot him astatine hazard of accountability.

The hazard is real, successful portion due to the fact that helium has besides created rivals from wrong the powerfulness structure.

El-Sisi volition basal victorious astatine the decision of the ongoing House elections, and helium volition astir surely beryllium granted his wish: astatine slightest 1 further six-year word arsenic president.

If thing else, this volition bargain el-Sisi time.

But the elections volition besides apt adhd to increasing frustrations implicit Egypt’s one-man-show governmental strategy and the economy, which has agelong been successful shambles.

The premix of economical mismanagement, corruption, and repression is simply a unsafe and acquainted one.

It is reminiscent of the past years of Hosni Mubarak’s tenure successful Egypt.

He, too, thought helium was firmly successful control.

Indeed, it could beryllium conscionable a substance of clip earlier determination is different fashionable uprising, oregon earlier the subject empire decides to sacrifice el-Sisi the aforesaid mode it sacrificed Mubarak successful 2011.

It is paradoxical, but leaders often suffer power adjacent arsenic the grip of their robust fist tightens.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.