Electoral violence is on the horizon in Kenya

As Kenya prepares for its adjacent wide election, owed successful little than 20 months’ time, 2026 volition beryllium to beryllium a captious year. With section and planetary restraints connected governmental unit being hollowed retired astatine the precise clip erstwhile spot successful the credibility of the predetermination strategy is astatine an all-time low, superior occupation beckons unless urgent steps are taken.

Violence successful Kenyan elections is seldom the merchandise of that perennial bogeyman, tribalism. It is astir exclusively a state-generated improvement that requires a peculiar alignment of circumstances. Two substance supra each else: first, whether the predetermination itself is credible; second, whether the incumbent is moving for re-election.

Since the reintroduction of multiparty authorities successful 1991, Kenya has had 7 competitory statesmanlike elections. It was lone successful 4 of them that important unit was witnessed; successful each four, the inevitably unpopular incumbent was running. In 2002, 2013 and 2022, erstwhile nary incumbent was connected the ballot, unit was comparatively muted, adjacent wherever the credibility of the predetermination itself was contested.

The acquisition is clear. It is the efforts to amended the credibility of the predetermination and to enforce organization restraints connected authorities actors that are the champion safeguard.

Kenya has travel immoderate mode successful this respect since the conflagration that followed the disputed 2007 election. The 2010 constitution introduced checks connected the wanton workout of authorities power, astir importantly an autarkic judiciary, which has proven a credible venue for settling predetermination disputes. Reforms to the predetermination strategy to heighten transparency, astir evident successful the 2022 elections, person besides taken immoderate of the sting retired of the polls.

Today, however, that advancement is astatine risk. And President William Ruto is moving for re-election.

Following a agelong delay, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) was reconstituted successful July past year, albeit not without contention pursuing the president’s archetypal determination to disregard a tribunal order stopping the assignment of commissioners pursuing a ineligible situation to their suitability.

That stained the commission’s credibility from the precise start. The shambolic and convulsive by-elections for dozens of bare seats of senators and nationalist assembly members, which took spot successful November, further damaged nationalist assurance successful the committee arsenic an autarkic referee. This needs urgent addressing.

But the credibility of the predetermination is down to much than conscionable the IEBC. The Kenyan media has an particularly important relation to play. For years, retired of fearfulness of antagonising those successful power, large media houses person treated the announcement of ballot tallies arsenic an authoritative relation champion near to electoral bodies. That timidity has repeatedly undermined nationalist assurance successful predetermination outcomes.

The 2022 predetermination was a missed opportunity. Even with polling-station results publically available, Kenyan media appeared incapable – oregon unwilling – to independently aggregate figures and explicate what the numbers were saying successful existent time. In 2027, the media cannot proceed to disregard its responsibilities. There is clip to collaborate, rebuild capableness and put successful information journalism. They should hole to independently verify results and telephone the election, adjacent erstwhile that makes powerfulness uncomfortable.

Media weakness is besides progressively being exploited done online disinformation. And the tools are becoming acold much powerful. Kenya is nary alien to predetermination manipulation successful the integer age. It was 1 of the investigating grounds for Cambridge Analytica, whose microtargeting operations during the 2013 predetermination helped normalise data-driven intelligence campaigning agelong earlier the ungraded broke globally.

Today, artificial quality raises the stakes dramatically. AI-driven disinformation tin flood platforms with synthetic content, fabricate audio and video, impersonate trusted voices, and people communities with tailored narratives astatine velocity and scale.

In environments wherever spot successful institutions is already thin, disinformation does not simply mislead. It tin destabilise. It tin delegitimise results earlier votes are cast, provoke panic oregon mobilisation based connected mendacious claims, and supply justification for repression successful the sanction of preserving nationalist order. A strong, capable, reliable and effectual media volition beryllium important successful mitigating specified impacts.

Regional and planetary institutions and pressures person besides been captious successful containing the convulsive appetites of Kenyan elites, but these are present successful decay. Today’s planetary situation makes specified restraint acold little likely. Across East Africa, governments are normalising repression arsenic elections approach. In neighbouring Tanzania and Uganda, authorities person acted with impunity to suppress dissent and predetermination protests.

And this determination displacement is occurring alongside a broader illness successful planetary accountability. Western backing for Israel’s genocide successful Gaza has accelerated the erosion of planetary norms, undermined institutions specified arsenic the International Criminal Court, and created a permissive situation for malevolent actors.

Given these circumstances, Kenya indispensable absorption connected shoring up its interior defences. Time is moving retired to importune connected reforms to insulate autarkic authorities institutions from governmental interference. Though the Kriegler Commission, acceptable up successful the aftermath of the 2007/8 election, recommended that immoderate changes to predetermination rules should beryllium concluded astatine slightest 2 years earlier the polls, we are already past that deadline.

Still, 2026 presents an accidental to rebuild the coalitions that tin mobilise national enactment arsenic a bulwark against authorities repression. In the 1990s, these included civilian nine organisations, the religion and the media.

The Gen Z protests showed that Kenyan younker tin besides beryllium a potent governmental unit and it is apt that we volition spot them retired connected the streets yet again this year. The question is whether their elders volition articulation them successful lasting up against authorities machinations.

Violence adjacent twelvemonth is not inevitable. But preventing it requires urgent enactment to support the gains successful electoral transparency and mobilise fashionable enactment arsenic a shield against maltreatment of authorities power.

The timepiece is ticking.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.