Elon Musk is no Kissinger, but may help improve U.S.-China relations, experts say

Elon Musk's narration with Donald Trump has fueled expectations that helium could soften the U.S. President-elect's argumentation stance toward Beijing, but experts caution against putting excessively overmuch banal into the Tesla CEO. 

The billionaire was 1 of Trump's top run donors and could reportedly get a cabinet oregon advisory relation astatine the White House. 

In the lead-up to the elections, their narration had piqued Beijing's interest owed to Musk's adjacent ties to China, wherever his company, Tesla, runs a monolithic "gigafactory."

"There has been wide curiosity successful China the past fewer months astir whether Musk could beryllium the caller Kissinger, helping broker a woody betwixt Washington and Beijing," said Scott Kennedy, elder advisor and Trustee Chair successful Chinese Business & Economics astatine the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"Whether this is an ingenious penetration that volition assistance support relations from imploding oregon portion of an unrealistic soothing script Chinese privation to archer themselves is hard to cognize astatine this point," helium added. 

U.S. diplomat Henry Kissinger, who passed distant past year, is credited with normalizing relations betwixt the U.S. and China, opening with his archetypal sojourn to Beijing successful July 1971.

Kissinger was profoundly respected successful China and continued to meet with its leaders arsenic an unofficial diplomat successful efforts to beforehand warmer relations betwixt the 2 countries. Just months earlier Kissinger died successful November 2023, helium met with Chinese President Xi Jinping successful Beijing successful July 2023.

Hopes that Musk could capable the hole near by Kissinger person arisen arsenic helium progressively engages with high-ranking officials successful China, wherever helium established Tesla arsenic the country's archetypal wholly foreign-owned automaker successful 2018. 

The Tesla and SpaceX during his past sojourn successful April met Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who cited Tesla arsenic an illustration of palmy commercialized practice betwixt Beijing and Washington, according to state media. 

Wang Yiwei, manager of the institute of planetary relations astatine Renmin University, told CNBC that Musk is seen arsenic a concern idiosyncratic who understands some China and the U.S. 

This could spot him assistance propulsion for immoderate flexibility with oregon adjacent cancellation of the strict tariff hikes Trump has threatened to spot connected China-made products, Wang said. He hoped Musk's enactment successful manufacturing could alteration a woody for Chinese companies to physique factories successful the U.S.

Musk has voiced concerns implicit tensions betwixt the 2 countries and had criticized the Joe Biden medication erstwhile it raised tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100% earlier this year. The Biden medication has rolled retired a raft of policies aimed astatine bringing manufacturers of high-end tech backmost to the U.S., galore of which Trump is expected to uphold. 

In bid to marque a existent interaction connected U.S. policy, 1 businessman, adjacent the richest successful the world, volition not beryllium capable to amended relations the mode Kissinger was erstwhile able, said Wang Huiyao, laminitis of the Beijing-based deliberation vessel Center for China and Globalization. 

Instead, Wang said that a radical of salient concern and thought leaders, including Elon Musk, Apple's Tim Cook and Blackstone Group's Stephen Schwarzman, tin enactment arsenic a "group of Kissingers." 

They whitethorn not scope the aforesaid interaction arsenic Kissinger, fixed the much analyzable period, helium said, though they could assistance stabilize relations. 

Cook and Schwarzman besides regularly sojourn leaders successful China, wherever they are often highlighted by Beijing arsenic examples of affirmative China-U.S. concern and commercialized relations.

Dewardric McNeal, Longview Global managing manager and elder argumentation analyst, told CNBC, "While it's existent that China has occasionally utilized influential Americans arsenic unofficial channels, it's a agelong to presumption Musk arsenic a modern-day Kissinger."

For these "informal intermediaries," the superior work is to shareholders, not to nationalist interests, helium said, adding that progressive governmental engagement tin pb to "conflicts of interest" and places the concern leaders nether aggravated scrutiny, if diplomacy fails.

During Trump's archetypal term, China had already attempted to found "back channels" with salient American businessmen, including entrepreneur and existent property developer Steve Wynn, successful hopes of influencing policy, McNeal said.

Such efforts appeared to person had small effect connected Trump's attack to China and led to the Justice Department issuing a lawsuit that sought to registry Wynn arsenic a overseas cause implicit his alleged lobbying enactment connected behalf of the Chinese government.

This clip around, Trump has announced his volition to impose a broad tariff ranging from 10% to 20% connected each imports, on with further tariffs of 60% to 100% connected products imported from China.

"Musk mightiness unfastened definite doors, but nary that hard-nosed committed diplomacy won't besides open," said McNeal, adding that pinning diplomatic hopes connected specified a figure, whose superior allegiance is to his ain ventures, could beryllium a miscalculation.

"Musk's unpredictability and strong, sometimes arguable views don't needfully align with either country's diplomatic oregon strategical interests."