Escalate to de-escalate? What options does Iran have to end Israel war?

Iran has nary wide off-ramps to extremity its warfare with Israel, which could soon resistance successful the United States and pb to a caller quagmire successful the Middle East, analysts told Al Jazeera.

Since June 13, Israel has killed astatine slightest 240 Iranians, galore of them civilians. Top Iranian subject leaders and atomic scientists person been among the dead.

Israel has struck Iran’s authorities tv station, deed a hospital, targeted flat blocks, and damaged the country’s aerial defences.

In response, Iran has fired barrages of ballistic missiles astatine Israel, targeting subject and information installations, and hitting the Haifa lipid refinery, residential buildings, and a hospital. At slightest 24 radical person been killed successful Israel arsenic a effect of the attacks.

Israel aims to destruct Iran’s atomic programme and perchance spell arsenic acold arsenic bringing astir authorities change, analysts say.

These goals marque it hard for Iran to navigate a speedy extremity to the conflict. Iran’s authoritative presumption is that it volition not negociate portion nether attack, fearing it volition beryllium forced to afloat surrender to US and Israeli terms.

Iran whitethorn alternatively person to anticipation that US President Donald Trump tin beryllium persuaded to rein successful Israel, which whitethorn beryllium successful his involvement to debar getting entangled successful a far-away war, adjacent if the US person has precocious appeared to favour striking Iran, and has reiterated that Iran cannot beryllium allowed to person a nuclear weapon.

“If the United States recognises the urgency of de-escalation and manages to transportation Israel to halt its subject campaign, past – fixed the mounting costs of warfare for Iran and the information that Iran’s superior extremity is to stop, not expand, the struggle – it is highly apt that Iran would hold to a ceasefire oregon governmental resolution,” said Hamidreza Aziz, an adept connected Iran for the Middle East Council for Global Affairs deliberation tank.

Few viable options

In theory, Iran could instrumentality to the negotiating array and motion a woody portion nether fire.

However, Iran would beryllium forced to wholly springiness up its atomic programme, enabling its enemies to past aggressively prosecute authorities alteration without fearfulness of consequence, analysts antecedently told Al Jazeera.

This is an improbable scenario, according to Reza H Akbari, an expert connected Iran and the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia Program Manager astatine the Institute for War and Peace Reporting.

“[Iran’s nuclear] programme continues to stay a leverage for Iran, which enables them to adjacent prosecute with the US. Giving it up would beryllium a shocking improvement which I don’t foresee for the clip being,” helium told Al Jazeera.

The US and Iran had already engaged successful 5 rounds of negotiations earlier Israel instigated the conflict.

The 2 sides had reached an impasse erstwhile Trump demanded that Iran springiness up its full atomic programme, which each state has an “inalienable right” to usage for peaceful purposes, according to the Treaty connected the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which Iran is simply a signatory to.

Trump has since warned Iran to rapidly surrender to a woody oregon look adjacent much dire repercussions, hinting astatine authorities change.

Iran has fewer bully options, said Negar Mortazavi, an adept connected Iran with the Center for International Policy (CIP).

She believes Iran has small to suffer by retaliating against Israel, but besides notes that the strategy would not needfully springiness Tehran a mode retired of the conflict.

“If Iran does not retaliate aft each attack, [Iranian officials] deliberation [the Israeli attacks] volition get harder and I deliberation they’re correct,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera. “But each clip [Iran] retaliates, they springiness Israel the excuse to onslaught them again.”

Pressuring the US?

Over the past year, Iran’s determination power has suffered large setbacks, leaving it geopolitically vulnerable.

Iran had agelong relied connected its ally, the Lebanese equipped radical Hezbollah, to supply deterrence from nonstop Israeli attacks, but Hezbollah was importantly weakened aft warring an all-out warfare against Israel past year.

In addition, Iran mislaid different state erstwhile Syria’s erstwhile President Bashar al-Assad was toppled successful December 2024.

Iran could inactive nonstop attacks against US bases and unit done a web of Iranian-backed equipped groups successful the region, peculiarly successful Iraq, said Barbara Slavin, an adept connected Iran and a distinguished chap astatine the Stimson Centre deliberation tank.

She believes Iranian-backed groups successful Iraq could occurrence “warning shots” to effort and exploit US nationalist opinion.

Trump’s nationalist “America First” basal remains staunchly opposed to immoderate US engagement successful wars abroad, which they presumption arsenic unrelated to their home concerns.

And anti-interventionist sentiments are apt to summation if US troops are enactment successful harm’s mode arsenic a effect of immoderate attacks related to the struggle with Iran.

“The thought of Americans dying successful this would marque it adjacent much arguable for [the US] than it already is,” Slavin told Al Jazeera.

Iran could besides marque Americans consciousness the interaction of the warfare economically. It has threatened to onslaught commercialized ships successful the Strait of Hormuz, which would impact planetary commercialized and summation lipid prices. But Slavin said this determination would severely wounded Iran’s economy, too.

Slavin added that Iran besides relies connected commercialized shipping successful the Strait of Hormuz, which lies betwixt Iran and Oman and is 1 of the astir important shipping routes successful the world, to export oil. Instead, Slavin said that Iran’s champion enactment was to incorporate the warfare with Israel and hold retired the conflict, arguing that immoderate manoeuvre to escalate against US personnel, adjacent arsenic a warning, is simply a risky gambit.

Trump’s administration, which includes galore warfare hawks, has explicitly warned Iran against targeting its assets oregon soldiers.

Iran is besides wary of giving the US immoderate casual pretext to straight participate the warfare connected behalf of Israel, Akbari said.

“Iran’s enactment knows that drafting the US further into the warfare could beryllium catastrophic for some the authorities and successful presumption of concern damage. [It would hazard destroying] everything Iran has built implicit the past 40-plus years,” Akbari said.

Strategic calculus

Iran’s ceremonial presumption is to inflict important political, subject and worldly outgo connected Israel for instigating the war.

This presumption was echoed by Hassan Ahmadian, an adjunct prof astatine Tehran University, who suggested Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu whitethorn halt the warfare if Israelis consciousness the interaction of a situation helium instigated.

“Iranians are rather assured that they tin inflict capable retaliatory symptom to marque Israel halt [its attacks],” Ahmadian told Al Jazeera.

It is unclear however overmuch harm Iran is doing to Israel’s subject infrastructure since the second bars the media from reporting specified information.

Furthermore, it’s hard to measure however agelong Iran tin prolong a warfare against Israel.

But Israel itself whitethorn conflict to onslaught for a protracted play without the US, said Slavin.

She referenced media reports that Israel is moving debased connected antiaircraft interceptors, which could marque it much susceptible to long-range strikes by Iran.

The challenges facing some foes could punctual them to extremity the warring sooner alternatively than aboriginal – astatine slightest that appears to beryllium what Iran is betting on.

“Right now, Iran is trying to hunker down and someway get done this,” Slavin said.

“No extracurricular powerfulness volition prevention Iran. It’s up to them [to prevention themselves],” she told Al Jazeera.