EU chief to meet Trump in Scotland in push to avoid a transatlantic trade war

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen volition conscionable with U.S. President Donald Trump successful Scotland implicit the weekend, seeking to scope a model commercialized statement soon earlier a 30% tariff connected EU imports comes into effect.

In a post connected societal media level X connected Friday, the EU's von der Leyen said she had agreed to conscionable with the U.S. president connected Sunday "to sermon transatlantic commercialized relations, and however we tin support them strong."

Trump aboriginal confirmed the gathering would instrumentality spot arsenic helium arrived successful Scotland connected Friday evening, saying "we'll spot if we tin marque a deal."

"I deliberation we person a bully 50/50 chance. That's a lot," helium added.

It comes amid a consciousness of growing optimism astir the imaginable of a tariff breakthrough, with sources telling CNBC that the existent base-case script for a woody includes a 15% tariff connected EU imports to the U.S.

Trump has threatened to enforce tariffs of 30% connected EU goods from Aug.1, prompting the EU to see countermeasures arsenic portion of its response.

The U.S. and EU person the largest bilateral commercialized and concern narration successful the world, representing astir 30% of planetary commercialized successful goods and services, and accounting for 43% of planetary gross home merchandise (GDP), according to EU figures.

Trump's four-day and golf-heavy Scotland visit is besides expected to spot him clasp an informal gathering with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Unlike the EU, the U.K. precocious struck a commercialized deal with the Trump administration, 1 which is centered connected a 10% tariff baseline connected British goods arriving successful the U.S.

Hopes of the U.S. and EU averting a transatlantic commercialized warfare from Aug. 1 person been buoyed astatine slightest successful portion by the recent announcement of a model statement betwixt the U.S. and Japan.

The U.S.-Japan deal, which Trump described successful a societal media post arsenic "perhaps the largest Deal ever made," includes a baseline tariff complaint of 15%.

Jack Allen-Reynolds, lawman main euro portion economist astatine Capital Economics, said Friday that a akin model for the EU mightiness beryllium seen arsenic lawsuit wherever a atrocious woody is amended than nary deal.

"Reports this week suggest that the EU and US are connected the brink of agreeing a commercialized woody with a 15% baseline tariff connected US imports from the bloc. It's hard to rotation it arsenic a bully deal, but it would astatine slightest debar overmuch higher US tariffs and retaliation from the EU," Allen-Reynolds said successful a probe note.

— CNBC's Silvia Amaro contributed to this report.