Fact check: Have US workers gained $500 in wages this year?

EXPLAINER

US President Donald Trump says they have, but this is lone fractional true.

President Donald Trump said US workers are already benefitting from his economical policies.

“The mean American idiosyncratic has already seen a $500 wage summation this year,” Trump said during an August 26 Cabinet meeting.

Trump’s White House cherry-picked information that favours a higher net gain. Experts similar a antithetic measure, based connected a larger illustration size, that shows a smaller increase.

How the White House calculated a $500 wage bump

When we asked the White House property bureau for Trump’s information source, a spokesperson pointed america to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures for median accustomed play net of full-time wage and wage workers, seasonally adjusted.

This information shows that median play net roseate from $1,185 successful the 4th fourth of 2024 to $1,206 successful the 2nd 4th of 2025, which intimately aligns with Trump’s 2nd word successful office.

Because those figures correspond play earnings, we multiplied them by 26 to spot however overmuch a emblematic idiosyncratic gained during the half-year period. Multiplying by 26 weeks produces a cumulative $546 emergence successful wages. This measurement does not see part-time workers, who relationship for astir a 4th of the workforce, oregon relationship for inflation.

Experts see different measures much reliable

Economists said the White House’s chosen dataset isn’t arsenic reliable arsenic a antithetic acceptable – and the much reliable survey shows a smaller wage increase.

The different dataset – average play net of each private-sector employees – is produced monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Over the archetypal six months of 2025, this statistic recovered a cumulative wage summation of astir $121. That’s astir one-quarter of what Trump said.

Several economists told america this is the preferred statistic for measuring wages, due to the fact that it’s based connected the Current Employment Statistics programme, which surveys 121,000 businesses and authorities agencies, collectively representing astir 631,000 worksites. By comparison, the Current Population Survey, from which the White House’s information is drawn, samples 60,000 eligible households.

“I ever spot the payroll bid more,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the centre-right American Action Forum.

Dean Baker, cofounder of the wide Center for Economic and Policy Research, agrees, saying the information successful the smaller household survey “is highly erratic”.

In addition, according to this dataset, the wage emergence during President Joe Biden’s past 2 quarters was $884. This undercuts the conception that Trump’s gains person been unusually high.

Factoring successful inflation

Because some of these measures neglect to origin successful inflation, they overestimate workers’ gains.

Another statistic, median accustomed play inflation-adjusted net for full-time wage and wage workers, 16 years and over, besides from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, is produced quarterly utilizing the smaller sample-size household survey and takes ostentation into account.

By this metric, workers’ wage accrued by $1 per week betwixt the last 4th of 2024 and the 2nd 4th of 2025.

Multiplied by 26 weeks, this adds up to a $26 wage emergence aft inflation.

Our ruling

Trump said: “The mean American idiosyncratic has already seen a $500 wage summation this year.”

The White House cited wage statistic that amusement median wages for full-time workers roseate by a cumulative $546 during the archetypal 2 quarters of 2025.

A antithetic acceptable of statistic – 1 that economists see much close due to the fact that it’s drawn from a overmuch larger illustration that includes full- and part-time workers, and with little volatility – shows a overmuch smaller emergence successful the mean US worker’s wage implicit that period, astir $121 implicit six months.

When ostentation is factored in, full-time workers’ take-home wage roseate by adjacent little – by astir $26 during the archetypal six months of 2025.

The connection is partially close but leaves retired important details. We complaint it Half True.