Five things at stake in Trump and Putin’s high-level talks

When Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to conscionable U.S. President Donald Trump successful Alaska connected Friday for talks connected ending the warfare successful Ukraine, it'll beryllium 1 of the astir precocious illustration summits of the year, and there's a batch astatine stake.

Veteran statesman Putin is apt to be aiming to extract arsenic galore concessions and benefits for Russia arsenic helium can successful instrumentality for a ceasefire that's coveted by Trump.

Close followers of Moscow accidental Russia is not looking to extremity the warfare yet, however, fixed its advantageous presumption connected the battlefield successful Ukraine, wherever its forces inhabit swathes of territory successful the southbound and east.

Trump has played down expectations for the summit, describing them arsenic a listening workout up of imaginable further talks. Yet helium has besides threatened "very terrible consequences" if Putin doesn't hold to a ceasefire. It's a informing Trump has projected before, and yet has resisted pulling the trigger connected further sanctions.

Ukraine and its European allies, not invited to the summit, warned Trump this week that Putin is bluffing astir wanting peace. Kyiv has adjacent said Russia is preparing for caller offensives though Moscow has not commented connected that claim.

The talks could nevertheless beryllium a watershed infinitesimal for stakeholders successful the Ukraine warfare which has been raging for 3 and a fractional years, arsenic good arsenic a catalyst for geopolitical changes.

CNBC takes a look astatine 5 large factors astatine involvement successful Friday's talks:

"Ending the Russia-Ukraine warfare remains 1 of President Trump's signature overseas argumentation goals, and Friday's Anchorage talks with Putin person raised expectations of a large diplomatic breakthrough," Helima Croft, caput of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research astatine RBC Capital Markets, said Wednesday.

"The purported woody treatment points are broadly akin to what has been antecedently floated; In instrumentality for halting its subject offensive, Russia is seemingly seeking to clasp Crimea and the full eastbound Donbas portion of Ukraine arsenic good arsenic unafraid a definitive extremity to Kyiv's NATO ambitions" she said, successful emailed comments.

Ukraine and Europe person vehemently pushed backmost against the "maximalist" territorial concessions that Russia could question successful instrumentality for acquiescing to a ceasefire deal.

Trump has sewn disorder and interest by vacillating implicit the thorny contented successful the past week, talking astir imaginable "land swapping" by Ukraine portion besides pledging to get arsenic overmuch territory backmost for it arsenic possible.

Ukraine and European leaders connected Wednesday urged Trump not to hold to immoderate demands from Putin regarding bid for land, pursuing an exigency virtual summit.

For his part, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine's territorial integrity is enshrined successful its constitution. Any changes to this would person to beryllium approved by a referendum, which would person to beryllium authorized by the Ukrainian parliament, making the process a perchance fraught one.

There is different option: that Ukraine accepts de facto Russian power of the 4 regions it broadly occupies, alternatively than a de jure (legal and official) recognition. But again, however a "just and lasting" bid could past beryllium maintained successful Ukraine, and who would constabulary it, would apt beryllium a bony of contention.

The destiny of Ukraine's territorial integrity doesn't conscionable impact Ukraine but the remainder of Europe, determination leaders say. They reason that giving Putin a portion of its neighbor's territory efficaciously redraws the borders of Europe.

Ukraine aspires to rank of the European Union (as merchantability arsenic NATO, though this is seen arsenic an ambition excessively far) and some Kyiv and the EU reason that if Russia is fixed a portion of Ukrainian territory, helium volition regroup his forces and usage the territory arsenic a launchpad for a aboriginal wholesale penetration of Ukraine. That could mean Europe has warfare astatine its border.

EU leaders privation to beryllium progressive successful immoderate ceasefire woody and person offered to oversee keeping the peace. Russia has rejected that idea, and euroskeptic Trump mightiness not person the region's concerns successful the forefront of his caput travel Friday.

"What the Europeans are trying to framework arsenic non-negotiable preconditions for a woody with Russia (a ceasefire, a monitoring mission, "ironclad" information guarantees) mightiness drawback up with them aft the U.S.-Russia summit," Carsten Nickel, lawman manager of Research astatine Teneo, said successful a enactment Wednesday.

"Regardless of the outcome, Trump could situation the Europeans to present overmuch much of the required subject capabilities and financing afterward. This would make hard trade-offs successful transatlantic relations," helium said.

Although Putin appears to beryllium entering the talks from a presumption of spot alternatively than weakness, helium could arguably look for an off-ramp from the warfare that has damaged Russia's economy, which is seeing slowing growth, labour shortages and rampant inflation which adjacent Putin described arsenic "alarming."

″[Putin] starts from a comparatively beardown presumption connected the battlefield. They're advancing," Richard Portes, caput of the economics module astatine the London Business School, told CNBC.

Russia, meanwhile, has reasonably efficaciously circumvented planetary sanctions and has buyers of its lipid that funds its warfare machine, with the likes of China and India refusing to isolate their ally. As such, 1 of the cardinal questions Friday volition be, is Putin consenting to play shot erstwhile it comes to ending the war, and to what grade does helium request to?

"From Putin's constituent of view, the task is rather prosaic: to simply beryllium and hold for the desired result. Putin sees himself arsenic a 'long power' and humanities figure, successful opposition with the 'short power' of Western fleeting governmental figures," Alexander Baunov, elder chap astatine the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, commented Thursday.

Putin's presumption connected the eve of the gathering looks much advantageous, Baunov concluded: "By conceding to clasp a one-on-one gathering with Putin earlier immoderate ceasefire, Trump is taking a bigger hazard than Putin," helium said.

"In diplomacy, the aggressor has thing to lose. By offering to little the somesthesia without having suffered a subject defeat, that aforesaid aggressor begins to look similar a peacemaker."