Four reasons why Benjamin Netanyahu may not want a Gaza ceasefire to hold

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reached the extremity of his latest travel to the United States and appears to person gained what helium wants from President Donald Trump.

Trump hailed Netanyahu aft their gathering connected Monday, calling him a “hero” and saying Israel – and by hold its premier curate – had “lived up to the program 100 percent” successful notation to the US president’s signature Gaza ceasefire.

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That is contempt reports emerging past week that US officials were increasing frustrated implicit Netanyahu’s evident “slow walking” of the 20-point ceasefire program – imposed by the US medication successful October – suspecting that the Israeli premier curate mightiness beryllium hoping to support the doorway unfastened to resuming hostilities against the Palestinian radical Hamas astatine a clip of his choosing.

Under the presumption of that statement – aft the speech of each captives held successful Gaza, surviving and dead, assistance deliveries into the enclave and the freezing of each beforehand lines – Gaza would determination towards signifier two, which includes negotiations connected establishing a technocratic “board of peace” to administer the enclave and the deployment of an planetary information unit to safeguard it.

US President Donald Trump, right, called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a ‘hero’ during his sojourn to Trump’s Florida property connected December 29, 2025, saying helium had lived up to Trump’s ceasefire program ‘100 percent’ [Jonathan Ernst/Reuters]

So far, Netanyahu has not allowed successful each of the required assistance that Gaza desperately needs and is besides maintaining that signifier 2 cannot beryllium entered into until Hamas returns the assemblage of the past remaining captive. He has besides demanded that Hamas disarms earlier Israel withdraws its forces, a proposition afloat endorsed by Trump aft Monday’s meeting.

Hamas has repeatedly rejected disarmament being forced upon it by Israel, and officials person said that the question of arms was an interior Palestinian substance to beryllium discussed betwixt Palestinian factions.

So is Netanyahu deliberately trying to debar entering the 2nd signifier of the agreement, and wherefore would that beryllium the case?

Here are 4 reasons wherefore Netanyahu mightiness beryllium blessed with things conscionable arsenic they are:

He’s nether unit from his right

Netanyahu’s ruling conjugation is, by immoderate metric, the astir close helping successful the country’s history. Throughout the warfare connected Gaza, the enactment of Israel’s hardliners has proven captious successful shepherding the premier minister’s conjugation done periods of aggravated home protestation and planetary criticism.

Now, galore connected the right, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, oppose the ceasefire, protesting against the merchandise of Palestinian prisoners and insisting that Gaza beryllium occupied.

Netanyahu’s defence minister, Israel Katz, has besides shown small enthusiasm for honouring the woody his state committed to successful October. Speaking astatine a ceremonial to people the enlargement of the latest of Israel’s amerciable settlements successful the occupied West Bank, Katz claimed that Israel’s forces would stay successful Gaza, yet clearing the mode for further settlements.

Katz aboriginal walked his comments back, reportedly aft coming nether unit from the US.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz [Menahem Kahana/AFP]

He doesn’t privation an planetary unit successful Gaza

Allowing an planetary unit to deploy to Gaza would bounds Israel’s operational freedom, constraining its military’s quality to re-enter Gaza, behaviour targeted strikes oregon prosecute Hamas remnants wrong the enclave.

So far, contempt the ceasefire, Israeli forces person killed much than 400 people successful the enclave since agreeing to halt warring connected October 10.

Politically, agreeing to an planetary stabilisation force, peculiarly 1 drawn from neighbouring states, would broaden what Israel has often seen arsenic a home warfare into an planetary struggle with galore of the strategic, diplomatic and governmental decisions implicit that struggle being made by actors extracurricular of its control.

It could besides beryllium framed domestically arsenic a concession forced by the US and planetary community, undermining Netanyahu’s repeated claims of maintaining Israeli sovereignty and strategical independence.

“If Netanyahu allows a overseas subject unit into Gaza, helium instantly denies himself a ample grade of his state to operate,” Israeli governmental expert Nimrod Flaschenberg said from Berlin. “Ideally, helium needs things to stay precisely wherever they are but without alienating Trump.”

Smoke rises from an Israeli onslaught connected Gaza’s Bureij exile campy connected October 19, 2025, successful 1 of the near-daily attacks Israel has carried retired since the ceasefire went into effect [Eyad Baba/AFP]

He wants to defy immoderate advancement towards a two-state solution

While not explicitly mentioning a two-state solution, the ceasefire agreement does see provisions nether which Israel and the Palestinians perpetrate to a dialog towards what it frames arsenic a “political skyline for peaceful and prosperous co-existence”.

Netanyahu, however, has been arguing against a two-state solution since astatine slightest 2015 erstwhile he campaigned connected the issue.

More recently, astatine the United Nations in September, helium branded the determination to recognise a Palestinian authorities “insane” and claimed that Israel would not judge the constitution of a Palestinian homeland.

Israeli ministers person besides been astatine enactment ensuring that the two-state solution remains a applicable impossibility. Israel’s plan to found a bid of caller settlements severing occupied East Jerusalem – agelong considered the aboriginal superior of immoderate Palestinian authorities – from the West Bank would marque the constitution of a feasible authorities impossible.

This isn’t conscionable an unfortunate effect of geography. Announcing the plans for the caller settlements successful August, Smotrich said the task would “bury the thought of a Palestinian state”.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich holds a representation adjacent the colony of Maale Adumim showing a onshore corridor known arsenic E1, successful which Israel plans to physique thousands of settler homes and which Smotrich says would ‘bury the thought of a Palestinian state’ [Menahem Kahana/AFP]

A resumption of warfare would payment him

Netanyahu faces numerous home threats, from his ain corruption proceedings to the perchance explosive contented of forcing conscription connected Israel’s ultra-religious students. There is besides the nationalist reckoning helium faces for his ain failures earlier and during the Hamas-led attacks connected confederate Israel connected October 7, 2023, each of which volition autumn wrong a captious predetermination twelvemonth for the premier minister.

Each of these challenges risks fracturing his conjugation and weakening his clasp connected power. All of them, however, could beryllium derailed – oregon astatine slightest politically blurred – by a caller struggle either with Hamas successful Gaza, Hezbollah successful Lebanon oregon perchance adjacent with Iran.

Renewed warring would let him to erstwhile much contiguous himself arsenic a wartime leader, bounds disapproval and rally some his allies and adversaries astir the well-worn emblem of “national emergency”.