Greenland's freshwater reserves seen as ‘frozen capital’ as water becomes a national security issue

Water is simply a finite assets — and progressively a nationalist information issue, analysts told CNBC. 

Water request is expected to outpace supply by arsenic overmuch arsenic 40% successful 2030, according to a 2023 landmark study connected the economics of water. At the aforesaid time, clime alteration is affecting upwind patterns and erstwhile water-abundant areas are moving dry. As a result, much h2o needs to beryllium moved astir to guarantee access.

Freshwater is utilized successful everything from manufacturing to agriculture, and request is acceptable to summation arsenic the colonisation grows and thirsty AI information centers are built.

As h2o is progressively seen arsenic a strategical asset, marketplace watchers are looking to Greenland's freshwater reserves arsenic a imaginable resource. The Danish territory has itself recognized the strategical imaginable and has agelong looked to capitalize connected the asset.

"The imaginable for h2o is manifold, since clean, caller h2o tin beryllium utilized arsenic drinking h2o and h2o for nutrient production, for example, but besides arsenic bulk h2o for factories, farms oregon a publication to bulk h2o supply," according to a connection from the authorities of Greenland connected its website. "There are galore possibilities." CNBC reached retired to Greenland officials for further comment.

Only astir 3% of the world's h2o is freshwater, providing the ground for suitable drinking water, and an adjacent smaller magnitude of that tin beryllium readily accessed.

"Historically we person conscionable continued to drill down h2o tables deeper and deeper, but present we're astatine the constituent wherever the aquifers cannot replenish themselves. It takes a agelong clip for the aboveground h2o to percolate down," said Noah Ramos, an expert who covers innovation astatine Alpine Macro with expertise successful h2o technology. He added that simply drilling deeper tin nary longer beryllium "relied on." 

Resource nationalism has go a "defining" geopolitical play, helium said — and that includes water. "So h2o has inherently go a strategical asset."

"In my view, close now, the nations that don't person it arsenic a strategical plus are amended positioned successful the agelong run" due to the fact that it forces them to innovate, Ramos added. He pointed to the Middle East and its concern successful technologies similar desalination, which converts seawater into drinking water, and Israel, which recycles astir of its water. 

The United States, South America, and Canada person historically had abundant h2o but are facing caller levels of h2o stress, putting them successful a sticky position, Ramos said. 

To beryllium sure, fractional of the world's colonisation experiences h2o scarcity for astatine slightest 1 period a year, throwing nationalist wellness and nutrient information into question. Notably, China is bolstering its h2o infrastructure. Investment deed astir $182 cardinal unsocial successful 2025 arsenic portion of the country's National Water Network strategy, per a authorities release. The eastbound powerfulness has uneven organisation of water, arsenic does the U.S. The U.S. has its ain h2o strategy, portion the European Commission has instigated a "water resilience" plan. 

The bulk of the world's freshwater is locked up successful glaciers and crystal caps, chiefly successful Antarctica and Greenland; each twelvemonth up to 300 cardinal tons of h2o melt from the Greenlandic crystal sheet, per the territory's government.

"Greenland's freshwater reserves, a monolithic 10% of each reserves recovered connected Earth, tin mostly beryllium understood arsenic frozen capital, not a readily disposable supply," Nick Kraft, elder expert moving connected water, agriculture and liable investing astatine Eurasia Group, told CNBC.

"Greenland's h2o is simply a strategical plus and a niche concern opportunity, but it's not a applicable near-term hole for planetary h2o accent oregon demand," helium said. 

Still, immoderate are hoping to capitalize connected the meltwater arsenic clime alteration accelerates. Notably, Arctic Water Bank, a startup, planned to build a dam to seizure meltwater and export it internationally. It is unclear what happened to the company, but nary dam has been built. A antithetic company, Inland Ice, bottles it arsenic premium high-purity drinking water, to Kraft's point. Five businesses presently person progressive 20-year licenses, including Greenland Water Bank, which is reportedly associated with Ronald Lauder, the billionaire Estée Lauder heir.

"Authorities person entertained proposals arsenic ambitious arsenic gathering a dam for h2o export," Kraft said. "But the real-world way grounds is telling: what's really happened truthful acold has been small, premium boutique exports, portion galore bigger export-at-scale ideas person been announced and past stalled."

Exporting h2o isn't casual owed to its weight, Erik Swyngedouw, a University of Manchester prof who covers the intersection of resources and governance, told CNBC. 

"The outgo is gigantic," helium said. "There person been attempts to bulk h2o transport [overseas]; nary of them person been viable successful immoderate benignant of way."

It is communal to determination h2o by land, beryllium it via canal systems oregon immense infrastructure networks. However, it has been shipped successful exigency situations, notably to Barcelona successful 2008 and 2024 during terrible drought.

"It's really highly hard to marque wealth from h2o — very, precise difficult. Despite 20 years of attempts to privatize water, it has not been a large success," Swyngedouw said. 

While immoderate geopolitical tensions person progressive water disputes — China's plans for the world's largest dam sparked concerns from India and Bangladesh, for lawsuit — Swyngedouw said it is much apt that intra-state frictions would originate owed to the inequitable organisation of water. 

"I'm definite that portion of the uprising that is going connected successful Iran has to bash with the gigantic drought that has been going connected successful Iran for a portion now, and makes beingness successful Iran highly difficult," helium added.

The state is experiencing its sixth twelvemonth of drought, with immoderate cities facing regular interruptions to h2o access.

When asked if it is successful a government's involvement to unafraid h2o resources to forestall civilian unrest, Swyngedouw said that "not each the states are the same."

"So the Iranian authorities has systematically neglected the proviso of these basal infrastructures, with the consequences that we know, and it has done that for geopolitical reasons. It is putting each its wealth successful the military, that's fundamentally the prime they had," helium added. 

Swyngedouw called for greater accent by governments connected provisioning h2o arsenic a nationalist service. 

Kraft added: "Water is progressively treated similar a strategical plus — person to captious infrastructure than a commodity — arsenic clime volatility and request maturation crook h2o insecurity into a nationalist information issue. This volition apt bring much headlines connected its h2o export potential, but I don't fishy thing worldly [will] alteration done the extremity of the decade."

"Even if Greenland's freshwater won't beryllium exported astatine standard anytime soon, it inactive matters geopolitically."