Guinea-Bissau coup: What happened, why it matters, what happens next?

2 weeks ago 13

Military officials successful the tiny West African federation of Guinea-Bissau person announced a caller person 1 time aft seizing powerfulness successful a military coup.

General Horta Nta Na Man was named arsenic the caput of a one-year transitional authorities astatine astir noon (12:00 GMT) connected Thursday. In a statement, helium justified the seizure of powerfulness and said the service had taken complaint successful the look of threats to Guinea-Bissau’s stability.

What happened?

Signs of occupation began erstwhile gunfire rang retired connected Wednesday day adjacent the statesmanlike palace successful the capital, Bissau.

Army officers appeared connected authorities tv soon afterwards, announcing they had seized powerfulness successful effect to the “discovery of an ongoing plan” they said was aimed astatine destabilising the state and aimed to “manipulate electoral results”.

Al Jazeera’s Nicolas Haque, reporting from adjacent Senegal, said the service serviceman starring the coup, Brigadier General Denis N’Canha, had served arsenic the caput of the statesmanlike defender earlier the takeover.

“The antheral expected to support the president himself has enactment the president nether arrest,” Haque said, adding that determination appeared to beryllium attempts by the subject to chopped the internet.

N’Canha, connected authorities TV, announced that officers had formed “the High Military Command for the Restoration of Order”.

“The High Military Command for the re-establishment of nationalist and nationalist bid decides to instantly depose the president of the republic, to suspend, until caller orders, each of the institutions of the republic of Guinea-Bissau,” helium said.

He claimed that the alleged crippled to destabilise the state was being coordinated by “some nationalist politicians with the information of a well-known cause lord and home and overseas nationals”, without giving further details.

The soldiers added that the ongoing electoral process and media sum had been suspended. They besides closed disconnected the country’s land, oversea and aerial borders and imposed a nighttime curfew.

According to The Associated Press quality agency, roads starring to the palace were closed disconnected and checkpoints were being manned by heavy armed, masked soldiers. A palace authoritative told the AP that a radical of equipped men had attacked the building, starring to a gunfire speech with statesmanlike guards. Officials besides reported gunshots adjacent the National Electoral Commission.

Hundreds of radical fled connected ft and successful vehicles, seeking structure arsenic shots rang out, the AFP quality bureau reported.

Who has been arrested and wherever are they now?

French quality outlet Jeune Afrique quoted President Embalo arsenic saying helium had been arrested astatine astir 1pm successful his office, successful what helium called a coup led by the caput of the statesmanlike subject office, N’Canha. Embalo stated that helium had not been subjected to violence. The president besides told French broadcaster France 24 successful a telephone call: “I person been deposed.”

Military officials person not provided immoderate accusation astir wherever the president is being held.

Army main of unit General Biague Na Ntam, his deputy, General Mamadou Toure, and Minister of Interior Botche Cande were arrested astatine the aforesaid time, and are each being held astatine the service headquarters, Jeune Afrique quoted Embalo arsenic saying.

Reuters, quoting anonymous sources, reported that absorption campaigner Dias of the Party for Social Renewal, arsenic good arsenic Domingos Simoes Pereira, erstwhile premier curate and the caput of the main absorption PAIGC (African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde), had been arrested.

In a Facebook connection connected Wednesday, PAIGC confirmed Pereira and Dias’s arrests and added that different enactment leader, lawyer Octavio Lopes, had besides been detained. Pereira had been preparing to basal arsenic the main absorption campaigner successful the election, but his PAIGC enactment was barred aft the electoral committee said it had failed to taxable its exertion connected time. Pereira thereafter endorsed the little-known Dias successful the elections.

Was Embalo facing a legitimacy crisis?

Yes, 53-year-old Embalo was facing a legitimacy situation successful the lead-up to the coup, and his enactment has been marred by governmental infighting. The erstwhile service wide was archetypal elected successful 2019, backed by a conjugation of parties known arsenic Madem G15, which had separated from the then-ruling PAIGC party.

PAIGC, which launched an independency warfare against Portugal successful 1974, has dominated the authorities successful the decades since.

However, aft Embalo was sworn in, successful February 2020, the absorption challenged his triumph and the Supreme Court did not recognise him arsenic president until September 2020.

The president was subjected to what helium called attempted coups successful February 2022, December 2023, and successful October this year, starring to aggregate arrests, particularly of subject officers.

Embalo’s critics, however, person accused him of fabricating crises successful bid to ace down connected dissent. Following the December 2023 coup attempt, for example, which began arsenic a clash betwixt a portion successful the service and the statesmanlike guard, Embalo ordered that the opposition-controlled parliament beryllium dissolved. Parliament has not reconvened since, and Embalo has ruled done decrees.

In March, President Embalo announced helium would again tally for office, amid tensions with absorption groups who questioned his legitimacy.

He said helium aimed to marque past successful the turbulent state by being the archetypal person successful 30 years to unafraid a 2nd consecutive term. But absorption groups said they did not recognise his presidency and accused him of delaying elections till November, erstwhile his mandate primitively ended successful February 2025. A Supreme Court ruling said Embalo’s word ended successful September.

In October, PAIGC besides accused Embalo of heavy-handed tactics aft the enactment was barred from the ballot connected a technicality. It was the archetypal clip successful the country’s past that the erstwhile governing enactment had been excluded from elections.

How did the predetermination go?

In the lead-up to Sunday’s tightly contested elections, Embalo campaigned connected stableness portion the Pereira-backed Dias campaigned connected change. Campaigns were marred by accusations of corruption and hatred code from some sides, but the votes passed without incident.

On Tuesday, however, some Embalo and Dias declared triumph successful the elections.

In a Facebook connection pursuing the coup, PAIGC said the subject involution was an effort to halt the electoral authorization from declaring triumph for Dias.

PAIGC “considers this information arsenic manoeuvres to disrupt the electoral process, which was already successful the last signifier of dissemination of provisional results”, the enactment said. It urged the electoral committee to spell up and people predetermination results “which gave Dr Fernando Dias da Costa a large victory, assuring him triumph close connected the archetypal lap”.

On Wednesday, the Bissau-Guinean civilian nine coalition, Frente Popular oregon Popular Front, besides accused Embalo and the service of staging a “simulated coup” to artifact the merchandise of predetermination results.

“This manoeuvre aims to forestall the work of the electoral results scheduled for tomorrow, Nov 27,” the radical said successful a connection connected Wednesday. It claimed Embalo’s statements to planetary media were impervious of this.

The deposed president, the radical alleged, planned to sanction a caller president and interim premier minister, past telephone caller elections successful which helium intended to tally again.

A worker stops a car adjacent the country of gunfire successful Guinea-Bissau's capital

Was Embalo’s authorities vulnerable?

Beverly Ochieng, West Africa expert astatine the quality steadfast Control Risks, told Al Jazeera that the changeless infighting had made Embalo’s authorities vulnerable.

“Over the people of Embalo’s presidency, the legislature, judiciary and assorted authorities institutions person either been rendered nonoperational oregon operating nether capacity,” she said.

Political infighting and the banning of PAIGC “likely contributed to a subject involution – adjacent though determination is simply a schoolhouse of thought that this whitethorn person been staged to play up vulnerabilities against Embalo”, Ochieng added.

Political expert Ryan Cummings said Embalo’s past moves lent credibility to claims of a sham coup against him that could spot him reinstated by the subject government. But, helium added, it is besides “highly plausible” the subject acted unsocial to debar a deadlock successful a state wherever 70 percent of the 1.6 cardinal colonisation is poor.

“There person been increasing concerns that longstanding disputes betwixt Embalo and (the opposition) had forced Guinea-Bissau into a governmental deadlock which has been detrimental to the socioeconomic trajectory of the country,” helium said.

Is determination a nexus to the cause trade?

It’s unclear however overmuch the country’s rising illustration arsenic a cause hub is tied to the coup. The subject coup leaders assertion determination was an effort to “manipulate” the predetermination by “national leaders” moving with cause cartels, but person not provided immoderate evidence.

The United Nations Office connected Drugs and Crime (UNODC) archetypal warned successful 2008 that Guinea-Bissau risked becoming a “narco state”. Since then, large cause busts successful the state proceed to cement it arsenic a drug-trafficking hub, with dealers recovered by investigators to beryllium moving with assistance from the military.

In September 2019, a large cause cognition by section information officials and backed by the UNODC led to the arrests of Bissau-Guinean, Colombian, Mexican and Portuguese nationals who were tried and sentenced to 16 years successful prison.

A 2020 study by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime warned that the cause commercialized could summation nether the recently elected Embalo due to the fact that cardinal figures successful the subject had backed his presidency. The study did not allege nonstop links betwixt Embalo and the cause trade.

Ex-navy main Jose Bubo Na Tchuto was arrested disconnected the country’s seashore by US forces and sentenced successful October 2016 to 4 years successful situation by a Manhattan tribunal for conspiring to import drugs into the United States. He was the highest-ranking authorities authoritative to beryllium sentenced for cause trafficking.

“The cause cartels’ power is depending connected the deficiency of the legitimacy (of the government),” governmental expert Aly Fary Ndiaye told Al Jazeera. “If, for example, we person a subject coup, they volition beryllium much apt to make an situation done which they tin turn their concern by supporting oregon backing those who are successful the army, truthful that they tin unopen their eyes and fto them turn their business.”

Election observers from the AU and ECOWAS were inactive successful Bissau erstwhile Wednesday’s coup occurred, including erstwhile Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan and erstwhile Mozambican president Filipe Nyusi. The delegation appears to present beryllium trapped successful the country.

In a associated AU-ECOWAS connection signed by the erstwhile leaders, the blocs condemned the coup and called for the electoral process to beryllium resumed. Both candidates, the connection said, had agreed to judge the ballot results aft the delegation engaged them successful talks.

“We deplore this blatant effort to disrupt the antiauthoritarian process and the gains that person been achieved frankincense far,” the connection read. “We explicit interest of the arrests of apical officials including those that are successful complaint of the electoral process. In this regard, we impulse the equipped forces to instantly merchandise the detained officials to let the country’s electoral process to proceed to its conclusion.”

Analyst Ochieng said ECOWAS was not vocal capable during the people of Embalo’s “political overreach”, including erstwhile helium unilaterally dissolved parliament. The bloc, she said, is struggling to instil respect for antiauthoritarian practices and nationalist institutions due to the fact that it fails to proactively uphold strict antiauthoritarian standards, thing the militaries are exploiting.

Meanwhile, the governments of Ghana and Nigeria person condemned the coup. Portugal and Qatar person besides called for a resumption of the electoral process.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres “appeals to each nationalist stakeholders successful Guinea-Bissau to workout restraint and respect the regularisation of law,” Stephane Dujarric, his spokesperson, told reporters connected Wednesday.

What happens next?

On Thursday, the subject announced the reopening of borders aft swearing successful General Horta Nta Na Man for a transitional play of 12 months. Not overmuch is known yet astir the subject leader.

Bissau was quiescent and inactive being heavy patrolled by information forces connected Thursday, though PAIGC called for a rally successful beforehand of the Ministry of the Interior, according to reporting by French vigor channel, RFI.

The calm, though, belies what is apt to beryllium a play of governmental uncertainty ahead, whether Embalo is reinstated oregon not, analysts say. Opposition candidates are improbable to judge subject regularisation and Embalo’s instrumentality whitethorn cement the theories of a ruse, and punctual protests which could beryllium violent.

Meanwhile, the African Union and ECOWAS volition apt unit the subject to instrumentality to antiauthoritarian regularisation arsenic soon arsenic possible, Cummings said. Both have, successful the past, suspended and sanctioned countries successful which coups person taken place, earlier reinstating them aft wide timelines for elections are set.

ECOWAS upheld suspensions connected the military-led Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger for respective months earlier the 3 exited the bloc and formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) successful January.

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