Gulf countries gear up diplomacy to stave off US-Iran escalation

Arab Gulf nations person been watching nervously arsenic neighbouring Iran has been engulfed successful nationwide protests. United States President Donald Trump has threatened subject enactment against Tehran – a determination galore Gulf powers fearfulness would plunge the portion into chaos.

Behind the scenes, Saudi Arabia has reportedly been lobbying the US medication to refrain from striking Iran, portion Qatar and Oman person been focused connected diplomatic outreach betwixt Iranian and American officials. The 3 countries shifted into high-gear diplomacy to de-escalate tensions aft reports connected Wednesday suggested that interaction betwixt Washington and Tehran had breached down, raising fears that an onslaught was imminent, observers said.

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“They were each acrophobic due to the fact that each accepted channels [between the US and Iran] were not being utilised, astatine slightest from the US side,” said Anna Jacobs Khalaf, a Gulf expert and non-resident chap astatine the Arab Gulf States Institute.

“GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] officials didn’t cognize what the US intentions were,” said Muhanad Seloom, adjunct prof successful captious information studies astatine the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.

Regional spillover

Tensions escalated aft Trump repeatedly threatened subject enactment successful Iran implicit the bloodshed taking spot there. Authorities successful Iran accidental that much than 100 information unit force person been killed successful clashes with protesters, portion absorption activists accidental the real toll includes much than 1,000 protesters, since demonstrations erupted successful precocious December. Al Jazeera cannot independently verify these figures.

Trump called connected Iranians to instrumentality implicit authorities institutions, promising that “help is connected the way”. While it wasn’t wide what benignant of onslaught helium was considering, his remarks near the portion bracing for an escalation.

Arab Gulf nations fearfulness that a subject onslaught connected Iran could disrupt lipid prices, shatter their estimation arsenic harmless havens for business, and trigger an Iranian retaliation connected their soil.

It wouldn’t beryllium the archetypal time. In 2019, Iran-backed Houthis successful Yemen struck Saudi Arabia’s lipid facilities, temporarily reducing Saudi lipid production. Last June, Tehran attacked Qatar’s Al Udeid airbase, which hosts American troops, aft the US struck a cardinal atomic installation successful Iran.

Iran gave ample informing that it would transportation retired the attack, which marked the extremity of the 12-day warfare betwixt Israel and Iran, yet it created a precedent. And portion that struggle weakened Iran’s subject capabilities, the Islamic Republic inactive has an arsenal to wounded US interests successful the region.

“Iran has ballistic missiles, supersonic missiles and militia groups around, truthful if they are fixed a crushed to hit, they would,” said Seloom.

On Wednesday, a elder Iranian authoritative told Reuters that Tehran had warned determination countries, from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to Turkiye, that US bases successful those nations would beryllium attacked if the US targets Iran. That was followed by the drawdown of ‍some unit ‍from the Al Udeid airbase.

Speaking to reporters successful the White House aboriginal connected Wednesday, Trump said helium had received accusation that “the sidesplitting successful Iran is stopping, is stopped … and there’s nary program for executions”. While immoderate interpreted that arsenic an off-ramp to de-escalation, the US president did not regularisation retired subject action.

Unintended consequences

Each subordinate of the Gulf Cooperation Council has a antithetic past with Iran but they each fearfulness what would hap adjacent and who would capable the vacuum should Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei beryllium replaced oregon the full strategy abruptly collapse, experts say.

The illness of Iraq pursuing the 2003 US-led invasion, and the chaos that followed – including a deadly civilian war, the strengthening of al-Qaeda, and the eventual emergence of ISIL (ISIS) – is an acquisition Arab Gulf countries bash not privation to spot repeated successful a state with a colonisation of much than 90 million, an arsenal of weapons astatine its disposal, and a severely weakened yet existent web of allies successful the region.

“They whitethorn similar to spot the Iranian enactment weakened, but each of them are much acrophobic astir a script of chaos and uncertainty and the anticipation of much extremist elements coming to powerfulness there,” said Khalaf.

Qatar, Kuwait and Oman person recovered their mode to beryllium with their neighbour connected the bluish enactment of the Gulf – Doha adjacent shares with Tehran the world’s largest earthy state reservoir.

The UAE’s Dubai is besides a cardinal larboard for commercialized with Iran and the 2 countries bask a robust economical partnership. The UAE would truthful greatly endure from unrest successful Iran oregon an onslaught connected its soil. Still, Emirati officials person remained soundless successful the past week having diverged from different GCC countries by cozying up to Israel and taking antithetic positions successful Sudan and Yemen.

Saudi Arabia and Iran person agelong been arch-foes, but successful caller years the rivalry has morphed into a pragmatic narration based connected keeping channels of connection unfastened and preventing each different from escalation.

Riyadh is particularly wary of determination destabilisation arsenic the Kingdom embarks connected a bid of ambitious economical reforms to diversify its reliance connected lipid and boost its tourism assemblage – goals that necessitate stableness astatine location and successful the broader region.

“Saudi [Arabia] is not comfy astatine each with authorities alteration anyplace – it’s extremist and utmost and outcomes are uncertain and risky,” Khalaf added.

“Our extremity is to execute stableness and calm truthful that we tin nonstop our resources toward gathering a amended aboriginal for our people,” Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Jubeir said connected Thursday.

Still, Khaled Batarfi, a Saudi governmental analyst, said that Riyadh would invited changes successful Iran, particularly if they are gradual, bringing astir a enactment consenting to curtail its atomic and rocket programmes and 1 that is little opposed to the US.

“But a abrupt alteration similar a authorities alteration with the hazard of the country’s disintegration is not going to beryllium bully for anyone,” said Batarfi. “The full portion is connected occurrence and we don’t request to adhd different occurrence to our doors.”