Handshake in Dhaka: Can India and Pakistan revive ties in 2026?

Islamabad, Pakistan – On December 31, the last time of 2025, India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar did what India’s men, women’s and Under-19 cricket teams had lone precocious refused to do.

He shook hands with a Pakistani typical successful public.

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Jaishankar and Ayaz Sadiq, the talker of Pakistan’s National Assembly, were among a gathering of determination leaders that had descended successful Dhaka earlier this week to be erstwhile Bangladesh Prime Minister Khaleda Zia’s ceremonial ceremony.

With Sadiq contiguous successful a waiting country astatine Bangladesh’s parliament successful Dhaka, Jaishankar walked implicit and shook his manus successful the beingness of diplomats from respective South Asian countries.

“He walked up to maine and said hello, astatine which I stood up, and helium introduced himself and shook hands with a smile. As I was astir to present myself, helium said, ‘Excellency, I recognise who you are and nary request to present yourself’,” Sadiq, a seasoned person from Pakistan’s ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), recounted the enactment to a backstage quality transmission connected Wednesday night.

Once Jaishankar entered the room, Sadiq said, the Indian curate archetypal met delegations from Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives earlier approaching him.

“He knew what helium was doing. He realised the beingness of different radical successful the room, but helium had a grin connected his face, and helium was good aware,” the Pakistani person added.

Images of the handshake were shared by Sadiq’s office and were besides posted connected the X relationship of Muhammad Yunus, main advisor of Bangladesh’s interim government.

This was successful stark opposition from September, erstwhile the Indian men’s cricket squad skipper Suryakumar Yadav and his players refused to shingle hands with their Pakistani counterparts during an Asia Cup clash past year. The tournament, played successful the United Arab Emirates and won by India aft beating Pakistan successful a thrilling final, underscored however profoundly resentful relations betwixt the 2 neighbours had become.

A bitter four-day aerial conflict successful May, successful which some nuclear-armed countries declared themselves victorious, marked the latest and astir superior section successful an antagonism that stretches backmost to their convulsive partition from British regularisation successful 1947.

As the warring spilled implicit into sport, it reinforced however governmental tensions had seeped into astir each nationalist enactment erstwhile it comes to these 2 nations – until Jaishankar’s handshake connected Wednesday.

While immoderate Indian commentators viewed the enactment negatively, voices successful Pakistan saw it arsenic a imaginable awesome of a humble thaw successful an different icy relationship.

“I deliberation that the enactment betwixt Jaishankar and Ayaz Sadiq is simply a invited improvement for the caller year,” Mustafa Hyder Sayed, an Islamabad-based overseas argumentation analyst, told Al Jazeera.

“I deliberation basal normalcy of relations successful which respect is accorded to officials and hands are shaken, it is the bare minimum which unluckily was absent aft the warfare betwixt India and Pakistan,” helium said.

Rivalry hardens

Relations betwixt the nuclear-armed neighbours person deteriorated for years and plunged further this April aft an onslaught successful Pahalgam successful Indian-administered Kashmir, erstwhile gunmen killed 26 civilians.

India blamed Pakistan for the killings and, among different measures, withdrew from the six-decade-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which governs the usage of six rivers successful the Indus basin, which the neighbours share.

Pakistan denied responsibility, but successful aboriginal May, the 2 countries fought an aggravated four-day aerial war, targeting each other’s subject bases with missiles and drones successful their astir superior confrontation successful astir 3 decades.

The warring ended aft involution by the United States, for which Pakistan aboriginal nominated US President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.

India, however, insisted the ceasefire was achieved done nonstop connection betwixt officials of the 2 countries, successful enactment with its longstanding absorption to third-party mediation.

Since then, ties person remained tense, with fears of renewed struggle ne'er acold from the surface.

Leaders connected some sides person exchanged crisp rhetoric. Both countries person besides tested ballistic missiles and conducted subject exercises.

Against that backdrop, immoderate analysts accidental the handshake successful Dhaka could beryllium significant.

Sardar Masood Khan, a erstwhile Pakistani envoy to the US, described the handshake arsenic a pleasant diplomatic gesture.

“One can’t ideate that the Indian overseas curate would greet Pakistan’s talker spontaneously without the explicit support of the Indian premier curate and elder enactment of the Bharatiya Janata Party,” Khan told Al Jazeera, referring to India’s Hindu-majoritarian ruling party.

Khan, who has besides served arsenic Pakistan’s envoy to the United Nations and China, referred to however the US – portion announcing the ceasefire betwixt New Delhi and Islamabad successful May – had “nudged” the 2 sides towards talks successful a neutral country.

India had rejected those calls astatine the time: New Delhi insists that determination is nary constituent successful talking to Pakistan until it stops cross-border fighters from entering India for attacks. India has accused Pakistan of sponsoring “terrorism” connected its ungraded for decades – and successful caller times, Pakistan has reciprocated those allegations, accusing New Delhi of backing separatists against Islamabad.

Each broadside rejects the other’s accusations, though Pakistan has, astatine times, accepted that the perpetrators of immoderate of the biggest attacks connected Indian ungraded successful caller years – specified arsenic successful Mumbai successful 2008 – did travel from Pakistan.

If determination were to beryllium immoderate diplomatic breakthrough betwixt India and Pakistan, Bangladesh would beryllium an improbable setting: Bangladesh was erstwhile portion of Pakistan arsenic its eastbound wing, earlier it achieved independency successful 1971, with India’s help, aft Pakistani troops surrendered and thousands of its soldiers were taken arsenic prisoners of war.

“Whatever prompted it [the handshake] is bully for the region, but determination are galore ifs and buts down the road,” Khan said.

Rezaul Hasan Laskar, overseas affairs exertion astatine India’s Hindustan Times newspaper, played down the value of the interaction.

“The 2 happened to beryllium successful the aforesaid country and did what elder leaders of 2 countries would bash erstwhile they find themselves successful specified a situation. They shook hands and exchanged pleasantries,” Laskar told Al Jazeera.

He said it was “significant” that each photographs of the brushwood emerged from Bangladeshi and Pakistani authoritative societal media accounts – alternatively than from India.

Laskar noted that India and Pakistan person not held sustained authoritative dialog since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, erstwhile gunmen linked to Pakistan killed 166 people.

“It is hard to spot the 2 sides coming unneurotic successful immoderate way, fixed the increasing spot deficit,” helium said.

Hydro politics

Arguably, the astir consequential fallout of the May struggle was India’s determination to enactment the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) successful abeyance.

Pakistan says the determination poses an existential menace to its population, which depends heavy connected the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum rivers, each of which travel from India oregon Indian-administered Kashmir.

Khan, the erstwhile diplomat, said that if India were to rethink its presumption and instrumentality to the IWT, it would “be a large confidence-building measurement and a harbinger for a semblance of rapprochement”.

But Laskar wasn’t optimistic.

“For anyone pursuing India-Pakistan tensions successful caller years, the suspension of the IWT should not person travel arsenic a surprise,” helium said.

“This has the imaginable for becoming a caller imperishable hurdle betwixt the 2 sides, particularly since determination are virtually nary authoritative contacts betwixt them.”

Uncertain thaw

The past twelvemonth has seen Pakistan’s geopolitical lasting rise, with analysts arguing it is the archetypal clip successful decades the state has been viewed arsenic a large planetary player.

In South Asia, pursuing the ouster of Indian state Sheikh Hasina, the erstwhile Bangladesh premier minister, it has revived its ties with Bangladesh arsenic well, with respective high-profile visits betwixt the 2 countries.

Islamabad has besides deepened ties with the US, China and Middle Eastern states. Trump, successful fact, has connected respective occasions publically praised Pakistani enactment and precocious called Pakistan’s service main Asim Munir his “favourite tract marshal”.

Pakistan is expected to beryllium portion of a arguable US-led planetary stabilisation force projected to oversee information successful Gaza, and it besides signed a defence agreement with Saudi Arabia successful September.

India, meanwhile, has faced diplomatic unit from Washington. Trump has repeatedly referred to the May struggle and appeared to endorse Pakistani claims of shooting down respective Indian combatant jets.

The US president has besides imposed tariffs of astir 50 percent connected India, portion Pakistan received a little complaint of 19 percent.

With Pakistan seemingly enjoying diplomatic momentum, could 2026 bring a detente betwixt New Delhi and Islamabad?

Sayed, the overseas argumentation analyst, said it was successful the “national interest” of some countries to support astatine slightest minimal engagement.

“They tin person a precise basic, minimal agenda, successful which they should specify the rules, reddish lines and acceptable guardrails. Once that is done, they tin person a basal level of dialog that is agreed upon with consent of both, and bring it to the table,” helium said.

But Khan was sceptical, fixed the bitterness of the May conflict.

Laskar said India has steadily escalated its responses to attacks since 2019 and that the May 2025 struggle showed however acold some sides were prepared to go.

As a result, helium said, reviving back-channel contacts betwixt India’s nationalist information advisor and Pakistani quality officials was essential, arsenic the mechanics had worked successful the past.

“The consolidation of powerfulness by Field Marshal Asim Munir, his quality to onslaught a idiosyncratic rapport with US President Donald Trump and the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia communal defence pact are each factors that person implications for the region, which volition beryllium factored into New Delhi’s approach,” Laskar said.

Sayed agreed, saying a “pre-determined and mutually agreed mechanism” to grip incidents of violence, alternatively than contiguous blame, would beryllium a important measurement forward.

“I deliberation India has besides understood that it cannot get distant with not acknowledging Pakistan’s beingness oregon pretending that it is not there,” helium said.

“Pakistan has emerged arsenic a precise important determination player, and India is present compelled to person a bare-minimum level of engagement.”