Has Benin’s foiled coup made ECOWAS a West African heavyweight once more?

When equipped soldiers successful the tiny West African federation of Benin appeared connected nationalist tv connected December 7 to denote they had seized powerfulness successful a coup, it felt to galore crossed the portion similar different occurrence of the ongoing coup situation that has seen respective governments toppled since 2020.

But the scenes played retired otherwise this time.

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Amid reports of gunfire and civilians scampering to information successful the economical capital, Cotonou, Beninese and others crossed the portion waited with bated enactment arsenic conflicting quality emerged. The tiny radical of putschists, connected the 1 hand, declared victory, but Benin’s forces and authorities officials said the crippled had failed.

By evening, the concern was wide – Benin’s authorities was inactive standing. President Patrice Talon and loyalist forces successful the service had managed to clasp control, acknowledgment to assistance from the country’s bigger neighbours, peculiarly its eastbound state and determination power, Nigeria.

While Talon present enjoys triumph arsenic the president who could not beryllium unseated, the spotlight is besides connected the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The determination bloc rallied to prevention the time successful Benin aft their seeming resignation successful the look of the crises rocking the region, including conscionable past month, erstwhile the military took powerfulness successful Guinea-Bissau.

This time, though, aft overmuch disapproval and embarrassment, ECOWAS was acceptable to propulsion backmost against the communicative of it being an ineffective bloc by baring its teeth and biting, governmental expert Ryan Cummings told Al Jazeera.

“It wanted to punctual the portion that it does person the powerfulness to intervene erstwhile the discourse allows,” Cummings said. “At immoderate point, determination needed to beryllium a enactment drawn successful the soil [and] what was astatine involvement was West Africa’s astir unchangeable sovereign state falling.”

People stitchery astatine the marketplace of Dantokpa, 2 days aft Benin’s forces thwarted the attempted coup against the government, successful Cotonou, December 9, 2025 [Charles Placide Tossou/Reuters]

Is a caller ECOWAS connected the horizon?

Benin’s subject triumph was an astonishing turnaround for an ECOWAS that has been formed arsenic a dormant value successful the portion since 2020, erstwhile a coup successful Mali spurred an astonishing bid of subject takeovers crossed the portion successful speedy succession.

Between 2020 and 2025, 9 coup attempts toppled 5 antiauthoritarian governments and 2 subject ones. The latest palmy coup, successful Guinea-Bissau, happened connected November 28. Bissau-Guineans had voted successful the statesmanlike predetermination immoderate days earlier and were waiting for the results to beryllium announced erstwhile the subject seized the nationalist tv station, detained incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embalo, and announced a caller subject leader.

ECOWAS, whose high-level delegation was successful Bissau to show the electoral process erstwhile the coup happened, appeared connected the backmost foot, incapable to bash overmuch much than contented condemnatory statements. Those statements sounded akin to those it issued aft the coups successful Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea. The bloc appeared a acold outcry from the instauration that, betwixt 1990 and 2003, successfully intervened to halt the civilian wars successful Liberia and Sierra Leone, and aboriginal successful the Ivory Coast. The past ECOWAS subject intervention, successful 2017, halted Gambian dictator Yahya Jammeh’s effort to overturn the predetermination results.

Indeed, ECOWAS’s occurrence successful its heyday hinged connected the wellness of its members. Nigeria, arguably ECOWAS’s backbone, whose troops led the interventions successful Liberia and Sierra Leone, has been mired successful insecurity and economical crises of its ain lately. In July 2023, erstwhile Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was the ECOWAS chair, helium threatened to invade Niger aft the coup there.

It was disastrous timing. Faced with livelihood-eroding ostentation and incessant attacks by equipped groups astatine home, Nigerians were immoderate of the loudest voices resisting an invasion. Many believed Tinubu, sworn successful conscionable months earlier, had misplaced his priorities. By the clip ECOWAS had finished debating what to bash weeks later, the subject authorities successful Niger had consolidated enactment passim the equipped forces and Nigeriens themselves had decided they wanted to backmost the military. ECOWAS and Tinubu backed off, defeated.

Niger near the confederation altogether successful January this year, forming the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) with chap subject governments successful Mali and Burkina Faso. All 3 stock taste and geographic affinities, but are besides linked by their corporate dislike for France, the erstwhile assemblage power, which they blasted for interfering successful their countries. Even arsenic they conflict rampaging equipped groups similar Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), the 3 governments person chopped ties with French forces formerly stationed determination and welcomed Russian fighters whose effectiveness, information experts say, fluctuates.

Sierra Leone’s President Julius Maada Bio, who chairs ECOWAS, walks with Guinea-Bissau’s transitional president, Major-General Horta Inta-A, during a gathering successful Bissau, Guinea-Bissau, connected December 1, 2025 [Delcyo Sanca/Reuters]

But Benin was different, and ECOWAS appeared wide awake. Aside from the information that it was 1 coup excessively far, Cummings said, the country’s proximity to Nigeria, and 2 sedate mistakes the putschists made, gave ECOWAS a warring chance.

The archetypal mistake was that the rebels had failed to instrumentality Talon hostage, arsenic is the modus operandi with putschists successful the region. That allowed the president to straight nonstop an SOS to his counterparts pursuing the archetypal failed attacks connected the statesmanlike palace astatine dawn.

The 2nd mistake was possibly adjacent graver.

“Not each the equipped forces were connected board,” Cummings said, noting that the tiny radical of astir 100 rebel soldiers had apt assumed different units would autumn successful enactment but had underestimated however loyal different factions were to the president. That was a miscalculation successful a state wherever subject regularisation ended successful 1990 and wherever 73 percent of Beninese judge that ideology is amended than immoderate different signifier of government, according to canvass tract Afrobarometer. Many instrumentality peculiar pridefulness successful their state being hailed arsenic the region’s astir unchangeable democracy.

“There was part wrong the army, and that was the model of accidental that allowed ECOWAS to deploy due to the fact that determination wasn’t going to beryllium a lawsuit of ‘If we deploy, we volition beryllium targeted by the army’. I situation accidental that if determination were nary countercoup, determination was nary mode ECOWAS would person gotten progressive due to the fact that it would person been a accepted war,” Cummings added.

Quickly speechmaking the room, Benin’s neighbours reacted swiftly. For the archetypal clip successful astir a decade, the bloc deployed its standby crushed forces from Nigeria, Ghana, the Ivory Coast, and Sierra Leone. Abuja authorised aerial attacks connected rebel soldiers who were efficaciously cornered successful a subject basal successful Cotonou and astatine the nationalist TV building, but who were putting up a last-ditch effort astatine resistance. France besides supported the ngo by providing intelligence. By nightfall, the rebels had been wholly dislodged by Nigerian jets. The conflict for Cotonou was over.

At slightest 14 radical person since been arrested. Several casualties were reported connected some sides, with 1 civilian, the woman of a high-ranking serviceman marked for assassination, among the dead. On Wednesday, Beninese authorities revealed that the coup leader, Colonel Pascal Tigri, was hiding successful neighbouring Togo.

At involvement for ECOWAS was the hazard of losing yet different member, perchance to the landlocked AES, said Kabiru Adamu, laminitis of Abuja-based Beacon Security quality firm. “I americium 90 percent definite Benin would person joined the AES due to the fact that they desperately request a littoral state,” helium said, referring to Benin’s Cotonou port, which would person expanded AES export capabilities.

Nigeria could besides not spend a subject authorities mismanaging the deteriorating information concern successful bluish Benin, arsenic has been witnessed successful the AES countries, Cummings said. Armed radical JNIM launched its first attack connected Nigerian ungraded successful October, adding to Abuja’s pressures arsenic it continues to look Boko Haram successful the northeast and equipped bandit groups successful the northwest. Abuja has besides travel nether diplomatic occurrence from the US, which falsely alleges a “Christian genocide” successful the country.

“We cognize that this insecurity is the instrumentality with which Tinubu is being beaten, and we already cognize his chemoreceptor is bloodied,” Cummings said.

Revelling successful the glory of the Benin ngo past Sunday, Tinubu praised Nigeria’s forces successful a statement, saying the “Nigerian equipped forces stood gallantly arsenic a defender and protector of law order”. A radical of Nigerian governors besides hailed the president’s action, and said it reinforced Nigeria’s determination powerfulness presumption and would deter further coup plotters.

Nigerian ECOWAS Ceasefire Monitoring Group (ECOMOG) soldiers defender a country successful downtown Monrovia during warring betwixt militias loyal to Charles Taylor and Roosevelt Johnson successful Liberia successful 1996. Between 1990-2003, ECOWAS successfully intervened to assistance halt the Liberian civilian warfare [File: Reuters]

Not yet retired of the woods

If determination is simply a cognition that ECOWAS has reawakened and aboriginal putschists volition beryllium discouraged, the world whitethorn not beryllium truthful positive, analysts say. The bloc inactive has overmuch to bash earlier it tin beryllium taken earnestly again, peculiarly successful upholding ideology and calling retired sham elections earlier governments go susceptible to wide uprisings oregon coups, Beacon Security’s Adamu said.

In Benin, for example, ECOWAS did not respond arsenic President Talon, successful powerfulness since 2016, grew progressively autocratic, barring absorption groups successful 2 erstwhile statesmanlike elections. His authorities has again barred the main absorption challenger, Renaud Agbodjo, from elections scheduled for adjacent April, portion Talon’s pick, erstwhile concern curate Romuald Wadagni, is the evident favourite.

“It’s wide that the elections person been engineered already,” Adamu said. “In the full subregion, it’s hard to constituent to immoderate azygous state wherever the regularisation of instrumentality has not been jettisoned and wherever the dependable of the radical is heard without fear.”

ECOWAS, Adamu added, needs to proactively re-educate subordinate states connected antiauthoritarian principles, clasp them accountable erstwhile determination are lapses, arsenic successful the Benin case, and past intervene erstwhile threats emerge.

The bloc appears to beryllium taking heed. On December 9, 2 days aft the failed Benin coup, ECOWAS declared a authorities of emergency.

“Events of the past fewer weeks person shown the imperative of superior introspection connected the aboriginal of our ideology and the urgent request to put successful the information of our community,” Omar Touray, ECOWAS Commission president, said astatine a gathering successful the Abuja headquarters. Touray cited situations that represent coup risks, specified arsenic the erosion of electoral integrity and mounting geopolitical tensions, arsenic the bloc splits on overseas influences. Currently, ECOWAS subordinate states person stayed adjacent to Western allies similar France, portion the AES is firmly pro-Russia.

Another situation the bloc faces is managing imaginable fallout with the AES states amid France’s expanding closeness with Abuja. As Paris faces hostility successful Francophone West Africa, it has drawn person to Nigeria, wherever it does not person the aforesaid antagonistic assemblage reputation, and which it perceives arsenic utile for protecting French concern interests successful the region, Cummings said. At the aforesaid time, ECOWAS is inactive hoping to woo the 3 rogue ex-members backmost into its fold, and countries similar Ghana person already established bilateral ties with the subject governments.

“The situation with that is that the AES would spot the involution [in Benin] arsenic an enactment not from ECOWAS itself but thing engineered by France,” Adamu said. Seeing France instigating an involution which could person benefitted AES reinforces their earlier complaints that Paris pokes its chemoreceptor into the region’s affairs, and could propulsion them further away, helium said.

“So present we person a concern wherever they consciousness similar France did it, and the bittersweet happening is that we haven’t seen ECOWAS dispel that notion, truthful the ECOWAS standby unit has [re]started connected a contentious step,” Adamu added.