Has India ‘weaponised water’ to deliberately flood Pakistan?

Islamabad, Pakistan – For the 2nd clip successful 3 years, catastrophic monsoon floods person carved a way of demolition crossed Pakistan’s northbound and cardinal regions, peculiarly successful its Punjab province, submerging villages, drowning farmland, displacing millions and killing hundreds.

This year, India – Pakistan’s archrival and a nuclear-armed neighbour – is besides reeling. Its northern states, including Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Indian Punjab, person seen wide flooding arsenic dense monsoon rains swell rivers connected some sides of the border.

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Pakistani authorities accidental that since precocious June, erstwhile the monsoon play began, astatine slightest 884 radical person died nationally, much than 220 of them successful Punjab. On the Indian side, the casualty number has crossed 100, with much than 30 dormant successful Indian Punjab.

Yet, shared suffering hasn’t brought the neighbours closer: In Pakistan’s Punjab, which borders India, national curate Ahsan Iqbal has, successful fact, accused New Delhi of deliberately releasing excess h2o from dams without timely warnings.

“India has started utilizing h2o arsenic a limb and has caused wide-scale flooding successful Punjab,” Iqbal said past month, citing releases into the Ravi, Sutlej and Chenab rivers, each of which originate successful Indian territory and travel into Pakistan.

Iqbal further said that releasing flood h2o was the “worst illustration of h2o aggression” by India, which helium said threatened lives, spot and livelihoods.

“Some issues should beryllium beyond politics, and h2o practice indispensable beryllium 1 of them,” the curate said connected August 27, portion helium participated successful rescue efforts successful Narowal city, his constituency that borders India.

Those accusations travel amid heightened tensions betwixt India and Pakistan, and the breakdown of a six-decade-old pact that helped them stock waters for rivers that are lifelines to some nations.

But experts reason that the grounds is bladed to suggest that India mightiness person deliberately sought to flood Pakistan – and the larger nation’s ain woes constituent to the risks of specified a strategy, adjacent if New Delhi were to contemplate it.

Weaponising water

Flood-affected radical locomotion on the shelters astatine a makeshift campy successful Chung, successful Pakistan’s Punjab province, connected August 31, 2025. Nearly fractional a cardinal radical person been displaced by flooding successful eastbound Pakistan aft days of dense rainfall swelled rivers [Aamir Qureshi/AFP]

Relations betwixt India and Pakistan, already astatine a historical low, plummeted further successful April aft the Pahalgam attack, successful which gunmen killed 26 civilians successful Indian-administered Kashmir. India blamed Pakistan for the onslaught and walked retired of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), the transboundary statement that governs the Indus Basin’s six rivers.

Pakistan rejected the accusation that it was successful immoderate mode down the Pahalgam attack. But successful aboriginal May, the neighbours waged a four-day conflict, targeting each other’s subject bases with missiles and drones successful the gravest subject escalation betwixt them successful astir 3 decades.

Under the IWT, the 2 countries were required to speech elaborate water-flow information regularly. With India nary longer adhering to the pact, fears person mounted successful caller months that New Delhi could either effort to halt the travel of h2o into Pakistan, oregon flood its occidental neighbour done sudden, ample releases.

After New Delhi suspended its information successful the IWT, India’s Home Minister Amit Shah successful June said the pact would ne'er beryllium restored, a stance that prompted protests successful Pakistan and accusations of “water terrorism”.

But portion the Indian authorities has not issued a ceremonial effect to accusations that it has chosen to flood Pakistan, the Indian High Commission successful Islamabad has, successful the past 2 weeks, shared respective warnings of imaginable cross-border flooding connected “humanitarian grounds”.

And h2o experts accidental that attributing Pakistan’s floods chiefly to Indian h2o releases from dams is an “oversimplification” of the causes of the situation that risks obscuring the urgent, shared challenges posed by clime alteration and ageing infrastructure.

“The Indian determination to merchandise h2o from their dam has not caused flooding successful Pakistan,” said Daanish Mustafa, a prof of captious geography astatine King’s College London.

“India has large dams connected its rivers, which yet marque their mode to Pakistan. Any excess h2o that volition beryllium released from these rivers volition importantly interaction India’s ain states first,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Both Pakistan and India beryllium connected glaciers successful the Himalayan and Karakoram ranges to provender their rivers. For Pakistan, the Indus stream basin is simply a lifeline. It supplies h2o to astir of the country’s astir 250 cardinal radical and underpins its agriculture.

Pakistan’s monsoon floods person pushed the nationwide decease toll past 800, with hundreds of thousands of radical displaced from their homes owed to surging h2o [A Hussain/EPA]

Under the IWT, India controls the 3 eastbound rivers – Ravi, Sutlej and Beas – portion Pakistan controls the 3 occidental rivers, Jhelum, Chenab and Indus.

India is obligated to let waters of the occidental rivers to travel into Pakistan with constricted exceptions, and to supply timely, elaborate hydrological data.

India has built dams connected the eastbound rivers it controls, and the travel of the Ravi and Sutlej into Pakistan has considerably reduced since then. It has besides built dams connected immoderate of the occidental rivers – it is allowed to, nether the treaty, arsenic agelong arsenic that does not impact the measurement of h2o flowing into Pakistan.

But melting glaciers and an unusually aggravated summertime monsoon pushed stream levels connected some sides of the borderline dangerously precocious this year.

In Pakistan, glacial outbursts followed by dense rains raised levels successful the occidental rivers, portion surging flows enactment infrastructure connected the eastbound rivers successful India astatine superior risk.

Mustafa of King’s College said that dams – similar different infrastructure – are designed keeping successful caput a harmless capableness of h2o that they tin hold, and are typically meant to run for astir 100 years. But clime alteration has dramatically altered the mean rainfall that mightiness person been taken into relationship portion designing these projects.

“The parameters utilized to physique the dams are present obsolete and meaningless,” helium said. “When the capableness of the dams is exceeded, h2o indispensable beryllium released oregon it volition enactment the full operation astatine hazard of destruction.”

Among the large dams upstream successful Indian territory are Salal and Baglihar connected the Chenab; Pong connected the Beas; Bhakra connected the Sutlej; and Ranjit Sagar (also known arsenic Thein) connected the Ravi.

These dams are based successful Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, Indian Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, with immense areas of Indian territory betwixt them and the border.

Blaming India for the flooding successful Pakistan makes nary sense, said Shiraz Memon, a erstwhile Pakistani typical connected the bilateral committee tasked nether the IWT to show the implementation of the pact.

“Instead of acknowledging that India has shared warnings, we are blaming them of h2o terrorism. It is [a] simple, earthy flood phenomenon,” Memon said, adding that by the extremity of August, reservoirs crossed the portion were full.

“With h2o astatine capacity, spillways had to beryllium opened for downstream releases. This is simply a earthy solution arsenic determination is nary different enactment available,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Politics of blame

Stranded pilgrims transverse a h2o transmission utilizing a makeshift span the time aft flash floods successful Chositi village, Kishtwar district, successful Indian-administered Kashmir past period [Channi Anand/AP Photo]

According to September 3 information connected India’s Central Water Commission website, astatine slightest a twelve sites look a “severe” flood situation, and different 19 are supra mean flood levels.

The aforesaid day, Pakistan’s Ministry of Water Resources issued a notification, quoting a connection from the Indian High Commission, informing of “high flood” connected the Sutlej and Tawi rivers.

It was the 4th specified announcement by India aft 3 earlier warnings past week, but nary contained elaborate hydrological data.

Pakistan’s Meteorological Department, successful a study connected September 4, said connected the Pakistani side, 2 sites connected the Sutlej and Ravi faced “extremely high” flood levels, portion 2 different sites connected the Ravi and Chenab saw “very high” levels.

The sheer measurement of h2o during an aggravated monsoon often exceeds immoderate azygous dam oregon barrage’s capacity. Controlled releases person go a necessary, if dangerous, portion of flood absorption connected some sides of the border, said experts.

They added that portion the IWT obliged India to alert Pakistan to abnormal flows, Pakistan besides needs amended monitoring and real-time information systems alternatively than relying solely connected diplomatic exchanges.

The blasted game, analysts warn, tin service short-term governmental purposes connected some sides, particularly aft May’s conflict.

For India, suspending the pact is framed arsenic a steadfast stance against what it sees arsenic Pakistan’s state-sponsored terrorism. For Pakistan, blaming India tin supply a governmental scapegoat that distracts from home failures successful flood mitigation and governance.

“Rivers are living, breathing entities. This is what they do; they are ever connected the move. You cannot power the flood, particularly a precocious oregon terrible flood,” world Mustafa said.

Blaming India won’t halt the floods. But, helium added, it appears to beryllium an “easy mode retired to relinquish responsibility”.