Here's the inflation breakdown for May 2025 — in one chart

The yearly ostentation complaint increased slightly successful May arsenic an uptick successful market ostentation somewhat offset little prices astatine the gasoline pump.

And portion ostentation was comparatively tame, economists said they expect President Trump's tariff policy to rise user prices successful coming months — and that determination was already immoderate grounds of their impact.

The user terms index, an ostentation barometer, rose 2.4% successful the 12 months done May, up from 2.3% successful April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday.

That summation to the yearly ostentation complaint was mostly owed to a information quirk called "base effects," economists said. (Basically, ostentation 1 twelvemonth prior, successful May 2024, was unusually low, making the May 2025 numbers look precocious by comparison.)

The monthly ostentation complaint paints a rosier representation and gives a amended indicator of underlying trends, economists said: CPI accrued 0.1% from April to May, down from 0.2% the anterior month, the BLS said.

A accordant monthly complaint astir 0.2% would mostly beryllium capable to bring ostentation down to the Federal Reserve's semipermanent target, economists said.

"It was a precise bully report," said Mark Zandi, main economist astatine Moody's. "Basically, it says ostentation has yet gotten backmost to the Federal Reserve's yearly ostentation target."

However, tariffs President Trump levied connected galore countries and products volition apt commencement to amusement up noticeably into the summertime and fall, helium said.

"I deliberation it's the calm earlier the ostentation storm," Zandi said. "This [report] inactive reflects the disinflation that began a fewer years agone and continued connected done the period of May."

That said, tariffs already had immoderate interaction connected user prices successful May, economists said.

For one, gasoline prices fell astir 3% from April to May, according to the BLS. They're down 12% from a twelvemonth ago, it said.

This is mostly the effect of falling lipid prices, which bespeak concerns astir a slowdown successful planetary economical maturation owed to tariffs, said Bernard Yaros, pb U.S. economist astatine Oxford Economics.

Lower vigor prices filter down to the gasoline pump and little household bills, helium said. Lower lipid prices besides provender done much broadly to reduced costs for transportation, successful categories similar hose fares, Zandi said.

Airfare fell astir 3% from April to May and is down 7% for the year, the BLS said.

Grocery prices were a sticking constituent successful May, though, economists said. Inflation for nutrient astatine location roseate by 0.3% for the month, aft having deflated 0.4% the anterior month.

Food prices springiness "a small spot of a queasy feeling," Zandi said. It's 1 of the categories he's astir acrophobic about, helium said.

Healing proviso chains and a weakening of the labour marketplace are factors that person helped rein successful U.S. ostentation broadly, said Sarah House, a elder economist astatine Wells Fargo Economics.

Data bespeak consumers are continuing to walk money and haven't shown overmuch reluctance to judge higher prices, House said.

"The user hasn't buckled yet," she said.

Housing ostentation has besides moderated, an important constituent since the class is the largest constituent of the user terms index, economists said.

Indeed, monthly ostentation for rent and "owners' equivalent rent" (a rent measurement applied to homeowners) person "returned to their pre-pandemic norms," Stephen Brown, lawman main North America economist astatine Capital Economics, wrote successful a probe enactment Wednesday.

These trends unneurotic signaled "a dependable downtrend successful inflation" backmost to the Fed's semipermanent people astatine slightest by the extremity of this twelvemonth oregon aboriginal adjacent year, Oxford Economics' Yaros said.

Tariffs complicate that narrative, economists said.

"The disinflationary inclination we've been seeing successful fits and starts is astatine hazard of stalling retired again," House said.

President Trump has levied a barrage of import duties since his inauguration successful January.

Federal information amusement the effectual tariff complaint successful April was astir 6% — and is apt to summation — comparative to 2% astatine extremity of 2024, House said.

The Yale Budget Lab estimates the mean U.S. household would wage astir $2,500 much successful 2025 owed to tariff argumentation successful effect arsenic of June 1.

There were immoderate aboriginal signs of tariff impacts successful the May CPI study for radical "looking done a microscope," Brown wrote.

For example, large appliance prices jumped 4.3% for the month, and artifact prices by 2.2%, helium wrote, citing CPI data.

"Unless each retailers are raising prices astatine the aforesaid time, it whitethorn trickle not flood into the data," Elizabeth Renter, elder economist astatine NerdWallet, wrote Wednesday.