How effective is UK’s one-in-one-out migrant deal with France so far?

Just 4 men who crossed the English Channel successful tiny boats from France to the United Kingdom person been deported backmost to France nether a migrant-swap strategy signed betwixt the 2 countries successful July.

The deportations, which person taken spot implicit the past week, were carried retired nether a “one-in-one-out” migrant deal signed betwixt the UK and France.

A fifth, Eritrean, antheral has won a High Court ruling placing a impermanent artifact connected his deportation. The Home Office was refused support to entreaty by the Court of Appeal connected Tuesday.

The deal, which had an archetypal people of exchanging 50 migrants betwixt the UK and France each week, was designed to stem the accomplishment of tens of thousands of migrants from France to the UK successful tiny boats.

This year, much than 32,000 radical person made the journey. Last week, UK Home Office figures showed that 1,072 radical crossed the English Channel successful 13 boats – an mean of much than 82 radical per vessel – connected September 19 alone.

How does the one-in-one-out statement with France work?

Under the one-in-one-out agreement, France volition judge the instrumentality of asylum seekers who crossed to the UK but cannot beryllium a household transportation to the UK.

For each migrant France takes back, the UK volition assistance asylum to 1 migrant who has arrived from France and who tin beryllium they person household connections successful the UK.

The woody emerged aft a bilateral acme betwixt British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron successful London backmost successful July.

The UK yet hopes that those with connections to the state volition hold to beryllium brought from France via this agreement, alternatively than effort to transverse the English Channel successful a tiny boat, portion those without connections volition not effort to cross. Experts accidental it is improbable to deter radical determined to question to the UK, however.

Why was this statement made?

The woody was introduced to discourage migrants from making risky crossings implicit the English Channel from France to the UK successful tiny boats.

A rising fig of immigrants person tried to transverse from France to the UK successful caller months, Peter Walsh, a elder researcher astatine the Migration Observatory astatine Oxford University, told Al Jazeera successful July.

Many of those without visas oregon support to participate the UK effort the unsafe crossing successful tiny inflatable boats, often paying ample sums to gangs that put the journeys. These crossings are highly unsafe and person resulted successful galore deaths.

So acold this year, much than 30,000 radical person attempted to cross.

The UK and France person each laid the blasted connected the different for the emergence successful numbers.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been facing home unit to enactment a halt to undocumented migration to the UK.

Since his Labour Party won the past wide predetermination successful a landslide successful July 2024, its popularity has plummeted, successful portion arsenic a effect of the nonaccomplishment to halt the tiny vessel crossings from France. Starmer himself dropped successful popularity by 19 percent points betwixt July 2024 and August 2025, according to pollster YouGov.

By contrast, fashionable enactment for the far-right, anti-migration Reform UK party has grown significantly. The party’s manifesto states: “Illegal migrants who travel to the UK volition beryllium detained and deported. And if needed, migrants successful tiny boats volition beryllium picked up and taken backmost to France.”

In an August YouGov poll, 38 percent of respondents said they believed Reform would beryllium astir effectual astatine handling migration and asylum, compared with conscionable 9 percent of respondents who said the Labour Party would grip these issues best.

How has the one-in-one-out strategy been utilized truthful far?

On September 18, 2 months aft the woody was announced, the archetypal idiosyncratic was sent from the UK to France nether the deal. The man, an Indian national, was deported to France connected an Air France flight.

On September 19, the 2nd idiosyncratic was deported nether the deal. The Eritrean antheral was besides sent to France.

The aforesaid day, an Iranian antheral was besides sent to France, according to unnamed British authorities sources, aggregate quality outlets reported.

An Afghan antheral was reported to person been deported to France connected Tuesday this week.

The identities of those deported person not been revealed.

The UK expects to person migrants from France successful instrumentality this week.

How palmy has the strategy been truthful far?

Not very. Despite an archetypal people of sending 50 migrants backmost to France per week, the UK has truthful acold sent conscionable 4 since the strategy was introduced successful July.

Even if the people was met, critics say, lone 2,600 migrants could beryllium sent backmost successful an full year.

On average, 700 undocumented migrants get successful the UK by tiny vessel each week, truthful returning 50 radical to France play would mean lone astir 1 successful 14 migrants is sent back.

Apurav Yash Bhatiya, an adjunct prof successful economics astatine the University of Birmingham, who has conducted probe into small-boat crossings, told Al Jazeera that the UK authorities besides faces steep constraints implicit who tin beryllium removed nether this woody – for example, those without household ties – and who tin beryllium accepted from France, arsenic good arsenic ongoing ineligible challenges from deportees.

“Even if the authorities reaches its archetypal people of swapping 50 migrants a week, it looks negligible compared with the thousands making the travel successful the aforesaid period. In that sense, it risks being a symbolic motion alternatively than a meaningful deterrent.”

Critics besides accidental the migrant-swap strategy is improbable to deter radical determined to scope the UK.

Has the fig of radical attempting oversea crossings from France to the UK dropped?

On average, astir 175 migrants arrived successful the UK successful tiny boats regular successful July. This mean fell somewhat to 115 successful August and has been astir 113 successful September truthful far, according to authorities data.

However, it is inactive overmuch higher than the fig crossing to the UK each time earlier this year: an mean of 35 successful January, 34 successful February, 148 successful March and April, and 84 successful May, earlier rising to 172 successful June.

Bhatiya said radical who are hopeless capable to effort these vessel crossings – during which galore radical person died – are improbable to beryllium deterred by an statement specified arsenic this 1 with France.

“My probe shows that adjacent tragic en way fatalities bash not trim tiny vessel crossings successful the abbreviated term,” helium said. “Trying to halt radical astatine the last signifier of a long, costly travel [financially, physically, and mentally] misses the point. Last-minute deterrence seldom works, and galore volition simply support trying until they succeed.”

What should the UK authorities beryllium doing instead?

Bhatiya said a much effectual solution would beryllium to grow harmless and ineligible migration routes to trim the fig of radical consenting to instrumentality unsafe journeys.

“Very fewer Ukrainians person attempted tiny vessel crossings due to the fact that they had ineligible alternatives,” helium said.

There are respective ineligible migration schemes for Ukrainians to scope the UK, specified arsenic the Homes for Ukraine scheme, which allows a sponsor successful the UK to supply accommodation to Ukrainian refugees from the warfare with Russia.

The UK besides needs to “rebuild deeper practice with European institutions”, Bhatiya added.

When the UK near the European Union successful 2020 pursuing the 2016 Brexit referendum, it mislaid entree to Eurodac, the EU database that helps place whether an asylum seeker has already claimed asylum successful different European country, helium explained.

“Without it, the UK struggles to instrumentality radical who person applied successful different countries, weakening enforcement and encouraging repetition attempts. The existent one-in-one-out strategy is simply a overmuch narrower arrangement,” Bhatiya said.

Can radical situation deportations made nether this deal?

Yes. The Eritrean antheral who was deported past week made a last-minute effort successful tribunal to halt his deportation to France. However, the High Court rejected his bid.

The unidentified antheral told the BBC that helium felt “very bad” astir going to France. Citing French officials, the BBC reported that the antheral would beryllium taken to a migrant accommodation centre, from wherever helium would person 8 days to either assertion asylum successful France oregon instrumentality to his location country.

However, different Eritrean man, aged 25, was palmy successful his bid astatine the High Court, which placed a impermanent artifact connected his deportation this week truthful helium tin contiguous grounds that helium is the unfortunate of modern slavery, arsenic helium claims. He arrived successful the UK connected a tiny vessel successful August and had been owed to beryllium sent backmost to France connected September 17. The UK’s Home Office was denied support to entreaty this astatine the Court of Appeal connected Tuesday.

To assertion asylum successful France, 1 indispensable archetypal sojourn the Initial Reception Establishment for Asylum Seekers, besides known arsenic SPADA, the French acronym, to publication an assignment astatine the Dedicated Asylum Application Service Centre, oregon GUDA, to registry the asylum application.

After the exertion is registered with GUDA, it is sent to the French Office for the Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons, oregon Ofpra, which yet approves asylum applications.

A miss is carried connected a man’s shoulders arsenic migrants wade into the oversea to effort to committee a dinghy to transverse the English Channel connected August 25, 2025, successful Gravelines, France [Carl Court/Getty Images]

What person been the reactions to the UK-France migrant deal?

It has been broadly condemned by some sides of the governmental spectrum successful the UK.

Referring to the High Court artifact connected 1 of the deportations connected Tuesday, Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp of the opposition, right-wing Conservative Party, said: “Yet again the courts person stepped successful to artifact a deportation, proving what we warned from the start, unless you tackle the lawfare strangling Britain’s borders, thing volition change.

“This is thing but a gimmick. Even if by immoderate occurrence it worked, it would inactive beryllium nary deterrent, arsenic 94 per cent of arrivals would inactive stay.”

Steve Valdez-Symonds, the migrant rights manager for Amnesty International UK’s Refugee and Migrant Rights, released a connection successful August, saying: “Once again, refugees are treated similar parcels, not people, portion the nationalist is near to wage the terms for, yet different cruel, costly nonaccomplishment dressed up arsenic policy.”

Will the strategy proceed if it’s not working?

Earlier this month, the AFP quality bureau cited an unnamed French interior ministry root saying: “We whitethorn terminate the statement if we bash not find it satisfactory.” The study added that the ministry root called the woody “experimental”.

However, the UK premier minister’s bureau has voiced optimism astir the deal. After plans to deport migrants connected September 15 and 16 were delayed, reporters asked Starmer’s spokesperson if the woody was “in shambles”. The spokesperson responded with a simple, “No.”