How have India’s exports jumped 20 percent, despite Trump’s trade war?

India’s exports accrued by astir 20 percent successful November year-on-year, the country’s fastest maturation successful 3 years, driven chiefly by exports to the United States and China.

The emergence comes astatine a clip erstwhile galore countries are struggling to support exports from the interaction of steep US tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump. Earlier this year, the US slapped an further 25 percent tariff connected India successful retaliation for its continued purchases of Russian oil, Trump said, bringing full tariffs to 50 percent.

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The November emergence successful Indian exports besides comes arsenic China recorded a commercialized surplus of much than $1 trillion, successful portion reflecting however planetary commercialized flows are being reshaped arsenic a effect of the Trump commercialized wars.

The export figures, reported this week by India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry, reflected resilient request for Indian goods and a strategy of diversifying to caller export markets, the ministry said, an attack different countries are besides adopting arsenic they look to trim reliance connected the US.

What were India’s exports successful November?

India’s goods exports were valued astatine $38.13bn successful November 2025, up astir 19.4 percent year-on-year. This was a reversal of the 11.8 percent year-on-year diminution successful exports to $34.38bn that India recorded successful October.

Imports, particularly of gold, oil, and coal, besides decreased by 1.88 percent, helping to shrink India’s goods commercialized shortage to astir $24.5bn, its lowest level since June. In October, the commercialized shortage had ballooned to $41.68bn.

According to the Commerce Ministry, cardinal drivers for beardown exports included engineering goods, electronics and pharmaceuticals.

Where is India sending astir of its exports now?

Despite the caller tariffs, India’s exports to the US – its largest azygous destination – grew by 22 percent successful November, reaching astir $7bn.

The healthiest export sectors were engineering, electronics, jewellery and gems, and pharmaceuticals.

“India has held fort connected the US exports contempt tariffs,” Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said astatine a property briefing.

Meanwhile, shipments to China surged by 90 percent year-on-year to $2.2bn. China recorded notably higher Indian imports, with electronics and engineering goods seeing sizeable increases.

The Commerce Ministry added that exports to Spain, the United Arab Emirates and Tanzania were besides driving growth.

Why are exports to the US inactive booming?

In part, November’s figures see Indian income of goods that are not taxable to US commercialized tariffs, Sambit Bhattacharyya, prof of economics astatine the University of Sussex successful the United Kingdom, said.

“India’s exports of electronics and pharmaceuticals to the US increased, and these merchandise categories are exempt from tariffs. Furthermore, tea, coffee, spices and different nutrient items were besides added to the exemption list, and each of them are experiencing dependable growth.”

However, analysts besides accidental continued steadfast exports to the US awesome that traders expect it to yet unbend tariffs connected different goods, arsenic the 2 countries are inactive moving towards a commercialized deal.

In November, for example, New Delhi and Washington signed a semipermanent declaration nether which state-owned Indian companies IOC, BPCL and HPCL volition bargain 2.2 cardinal metric tonnes of US liquefied petroleum state (LPG) each year. That represents 10 percent of India’s full LPG imports.

Bhattacharyya said, “India is moving with the US successful securing a commercialized deal, and it is expected that mean tariffs would travel down and determination volition beryllium much exemptions.

“Therefore, it is apt that determination volition beryllium much concessions from the US side. It seems that US buyers stay optimistic astir their Indian suppliers, and Indian exports stay competitory successful the US market.”

Is India diversifying exports distant from the US arsenic well?

Yes. Despite immoderate affirmative signs regarding exports, uncertainty implicit US-India relations lingers. While the Trump medication claimed earlier this twelvemonth that India had agreed to halt buying discounted Russian oil, it has shown little motion of doing so.

India has besides resisted US unit to unfastened up delicate sectors specified arsenic agriculture and dairy to US imports, insisting it volition support farmers and not “bow down” to tariff demands, portion Trump is demanding greater marketplace access.

In July this year, India and the UK signed the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement nether which tariffs person been reduced. Last year, India besides signed the Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement with the European Free Trade Association countries – Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein – nether which they person linked markets successful instrumentality for investment.

India is presently successful talks with Mexico to antagonistic tariff policies determination and make caller export corridors. Mexico’s Senate connected Wednesday approved tariff hikes of up to 50 percent from January connected imports from India and different countries, a determination analysts accidental is aimed astatine appeasing Washington.

It is besides holding commercialized talks with Oman.

“India would besides beryllium looking to diversify into Eurasian and Central Asian markets,” Sussex University’s Bhattacharyya said.

Why other are India’s exports high?

Bhattacharyya said exports were buoyed successful November due to the fact that the rupee was weaker.

“The rupee devalued against the dollar, which partially counterbalanced the antagonistic effects of tariff connected terms competitiveness of Indian exports,” helium said.

“What is reported is year-on-year growth, which is export figures for November 2025 compared to November 2024. November 2024 was the period of Red Sea crisis, which had a antagonistic interaction connected exports to the US,” helium added.

“Therefore, the November 2025 export maturation figures whitethorn look to beryllium overly optimistic owed to a debased base.”

Which different countries are showing steadfast exports contempt US commercialized tariffs?

China’s exports maintained maturation successful 2025, enabling the state to grounds a commercialized surplus of much than $1 trillion.

Earlier successful the year, the US imposed tariffs of 145 percent connected Chinese goods earlier reducing them to facilitate commercialized negotiations. Beijing has weathered the standoff by expanding exports to non-US markets, however.

Strong request from Europe, Southeast Asia and different Asian markets for electronics, electrical cars and rare-earth metals, among others, person offset a diminution successful US-bound shipments caused by the tariffs war.

China’s exports to the European Union besides saw beardown growth, up an yearly 14.8 percent successful November year-on-year, and an 8.2 percent emergence successful exports to countries successful Southeast Asia.

For the archetypal 11 months of 2025, China’s goods surplus roseate 21.7 percent year-on-year, with high-tech products driving overmuch of the expansion. Shipments successful this class grew 5.4 percent faster than wide exports.

Vietnam has besides registered export increases successful 2025, with its commercialized surplus with the US reaching $121.6bn implicit the aforesaid period, contempt the 20 percent tariffs imposed connected its goods by the Trump administration.

In November, Vietnamese exports to the US jumped 22.5 percent year-on-year, outpacing the 15.1 percent maturation successful shipments to different markets, according to authoritative statistics.

Are different countries diversifying distant from the US?

There has been accrued momentum successful multilateral and bilateral commercialized negotiations arsenic countries question alternatives to the US market.

Bhattacharyya said, “Countries are looking to diversify distant from the US into Asian markets specified arsenic China, Japan and ASEAN. Trade deals is 1 mode of ensuring commercialized and reducing commercialized uncertainty. Incentivising investments and opening up markets is besides different mode of securing trade.”

The EU has signed a commercialized deals with Latin American bloc Mercosur, Mexico and Indonesia. The deals see cutting oregon phasing retired astir tariffs connected goods, widening entree to markets for concern and cultivation exports, arsenic good arsenic biology and labour commitments.

The US’s bluish neighbour, Canada, has besides signalled its tendency to onslaught caller commercialized deals aft coming nether unit from Trump’s tariff blitz.

In November, Canada and the UAE signed a Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement, designed to beforehand and support investments betwixt the 2 countries, portion besides agreeing to statesman talks to unafraid a commercialized woody betwixt themselves.

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney has antecedently said Canada aims to double its non-US exports implicit the adjacent decade.