How much is US support for Israel costing Donald Trump?

Few expected United States President Donald Trump to wantonness Israel during his 2nd word successful office, considering however supportive helium had been of the Middle Eastern state successful his archetypal term.

And yet, considering the still-mounting decease toll from Israel’s genocidal warfare connected Gaza, and the planetary condemnation that has accompanied it, his continued full-throated enactment for Israel has unnerved immoderate successful the president’s base.

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To them, the enactment is doubly violative successful the look of a inactive struggling economy, a mounting affordability crisis, spiralling healthcare costs and a US authorities shutdown, each portion US assistance to Israel has continued without pause.

That assistance goes beyond the financial. It extends to blocking measures to criticise Israel astatine the UN, holding its leaders to relationship nether planetary law, and adjacent punishing those taking unilateral enactment against Israel, specified arsenic the International Criminal Court, which continues to beryllium heavily sanctioned by the US.

So however extended is US enactment for Israel, and conscionable however overmuch mightiness that backing outgo some Trump and his Republican Party?

How overmuch assistance has Trump fixed to Israel?

A lot.

Washington has been giving Israel $3.8bn per twelvemonth to walk connected US weapons nether a 10-year committedness overseen by erstwhile US President Barack Obama successful 2019.

In March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Washington would beryllium sending $4bn successful exigency subject assistance to Israel. He proudly said the Trump medication had approved $12bn successful US subject income to Israel since taking office, framing it arsenic a departure from the medication of Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, who himself was overwhelmingly pro-Israel.

People transportation caricature heads of US President Donald Trump, left, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arsenic they march during a pro-Palestinian protest, September 26, 2025, New York, US [Angelina Katsanis/AP Photo]

According to the latest study by the Cost of War Project, published successful October, the US has fixed Israel much than $21bn since its genocidal warfare connected Gaza began.

How overmuch has this outgo Trump wrong his MAGA movement?

More than you mightiness think.

Some of the astir important figures wrong the Make America Great Again (MAGA) question person already rebelled implicit Trump’s unflinching enactment for Israel. But this is not wholly retired of interest for the much than 70,000 radical that Israel has killed successful Gaza truthful far. Rather, galore of their objections person focused connected the outgo of supporting Israel and the imaginable risks of doing so.

In June, the influential MAGA fig and Trump ally, erstwhile Fox News property Tucker Carlson, openly broke with the president connected the topic. Taking to societal media, helium wrote: “The existent disagreement isn’t betwixt radical who enactment Israel and radical who enactment Iran oregon the Palestinians. The existent disagreement is betwixt those who casually promote violence, and those who question to forestall it — betwixt warmongers and peacemakers.”

Another of Trump’s interior circle, his erstwhile adjutant Steve Bannon, has besides questioned the “special relationship”, describing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arsenic having “betrayed” the US by launching strikes connected Iran portion knowing it did not person the tools needed for outright victory.

Later the aforesaid year, aft Netanyahu had suggested that being anti-Israel was incompatible with being portion of the MAGA movement, Bannon responded with what commentators described arsenic a “scorched earth” approach, appearing to code the Israeli premier curate straight via societal media. Bannon utilized colourful connection to accidental that US citizens did not attraction astir Netanyahu’s opinions towards MAGA, but alternatively cared astir exposing the premier minister’s “pathological lies” truthful that the US stays retired of “[Israel’s] adjacent war”.

Has Trump’s enactment for Israel wounded his governmental base?

Up to a point.

While galore Republican figures stay loyal, the astir strident disapproval – and 1 of the fewer connected the US close to person accused Israel of genocide – has travel from 1 of his antecedently astir stalwart allies, Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene.

In the midst of a fig of ruptures implicit the outgo of surviving and the merchandise of files related to the convicted enactment offender Jeffrey Epstein, Greene earned Trump’s fury aft she took to societal media to telephone retired the “genocide, humanitarian crisis, and starvation happening successful Gaza”.

Trump has responded to the congresswoman’s disapproval by branding her Marjorie “Traitor” Greene.

Greene has since announced that she volition beryllium leaving Congress, but is inactive good respected by galore successful the MAGA movement, who spot her arsenic having stood up for an “America First” argumentation alternatively than an “Israel First” one.

US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) speaks alongside Trump astatine a run lawsuit successful Rome, Georgia [File: AFP]

How overmuch mightiness this beryllium costing him electorally?

It is not certain.

A caller canvass released this week by YouGov and the Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) Policy Project showed a plurality of Republicans surveyed favoured letting the 10-year assistance statement lapse erstwhile it had tally its course. Feelings were adjacent much marked among younger Republicans, with 53 percent of those aged betwixt 18 and 44 favouring ripping up the statement entirely.

“Even earlier the warfare successful Gaza, determination was little enactment for Israel and greater sympathy for Palestinians among younger Americans, including young evangelical Christians,” Dov Waxman, prof of Israel studies astatine the University of California, told Al Jazeera successful October. “Israel’s behaviour during the warfare successful Gaza has importantly accelerated the erosion of enactment for Israel among these cardinal groups.”

But it is not conscionable wrong Trump’s accepted basal wherever his enactment for Israel is costing him. Polls besides amusement it to beryllium flagging successful 1 of the astir accepted pro-Israel branches of his base, evangelical Christians. In October, the Israeli authorities hired a recently formed PR company, Faith done Works, to, successful its ain words, “combat debased American Evangelical Christian support of the Nation of Israel”.

Earlier this month, much than 1,000 US Christian pastors and influencers travelled to Israel, becoming “the largest radical of American Christian leaders to sojourn Israel since its founding”.

Significantly, the travel was organised by American writer Mike Evans, a adjacent evangelical state of Trump and reportedly a longstanding Netanyahu confidant.

And yet, arsenic Gaza recedes from US headlines, the value of Israel wrong US sermon whitethorn recede with it.

The forthcoming US elections volition apt beryllium influenced by a myriad of issues, including Israel, but astir most apt focused connected the system and different home concerns.

And if they are confronted with electoral losses up of the 2028 statesmanlike election, Republicans – some supporters and opponents of Israel – whitethorn determine to enactment the contented to 1 broadside arsenic they absorption connected confronting the Democrats.